RDavisJ1
RDavisJ1's Journal"I take no responsibility" Trump
I wrote an article with video support of why Trump's "I take no responsibility" is so dangerous and damning.
https://medium.com/@rossj503/i-dont-take-responsibility-at-all-82cce62cbeeb
This is what should happen tomorrow
After sitting down with the math, this is what tomorrow should look like. Biden will get MS, MO, ID (don't start screaming yet). Bernie will get ND. So what about MI and WA? 2016 polling got it very wrong and Bernie ended up winning. Right now Biden is heavily favored in MI with a 55 to 32 lead. Sanders MUST win this state, even if it's 1%. What could happen? We could see a Michigan surprise with a Bernie flip. (This is where you get out your candles and light them Bernie followers). However, I don't think this will be a 2016 and here's why.
There was a lot of anti-Hillary sentiment that Joe simply doesn't have and Joe did pull a Jesus and resurrected MI from the dead with the auto bailout. Sorry Anti-Nafta, just not as good. Also, Bernie voted against legislation for Flint clean water. (look it up).
Now onto WA state. Bernie has a genuine opportunity to hold onto the West Coast. One little wrinkle. Bye-bye caucus. Bernie could pull an upset here as the SOS of WA, a REP, threw a little wrinkle onto the ballot that you have to mark D or R on the ballot and was not publicized much. Also with early voting, Bernie flight may not have gotten into the early voting and could help him with narrow margins. I'm going to toss WA into the Bernie column.
So at the end of the night, Bernie will have ND and WA. Biden will have, well screw it, he'll have MI and the rest are just candies on the sundae. Tomorrow is make or break for Bernie because looming next week is FL, OH, AZ, and IL and he's projected to lose all 4 of those and there are a ton of delegates in those contests.
Don't ask Sanders to drop out...
As we head into the Super Tuesday primaries that are left on March 10 and 17, we are looking at a map that looks very good for Joe Biden. As of today, Biden is leading in all states with polling data available and picked up the entire state of Idaho's state congressional leadership. If Biden can sweep the next two contests the knee jerk reaction will be to call for Bernie to step out. This is a mistake.
Bernie, even if he can't win the nomination, plays an important role in forming the Biden battle plan to Trump.
Bernie surrogates are running youtube ads stating that Joe is mentally on the decline. Attacking Joe on everything from Social Security to LGBTQ rights. Typical thinking would be that this is bad. Actually, it's good.
While Bernie surrogates are incredibly toxic, including making fun of a man with a speech impediment, and are increasingly getting more frustrated, this benefits Biden. Bernie surrogates are giving the Biden campaign a taste of what's to come. This only helps and strengthens Biden in the long run and gives his supporters, especially on digital platforms, and opportunity to craft the response and message to such attacks.
If Bernie were to drop out, these attacks would decrease and create a lull in the campaign. Joe Biden needs all the practice he can get heading into the fall. Bernie is helping to train Joe.
Bernie staying in also keeps the energy and momentum going as we march towards the convention.
According to the delegate model on 538.com, it shows Joe heading into the convention with about 1700+ delegates. More than likely, Joe will come closer to the 1991 needed to win outright. By the time delegates that are reallocated from other campaigns, Bernie may have no option but to bow out at the convention. Wil he do that gracefully? We will have to wait and see.
Super Tuesday Part 2
So far the polls look as such by 538
Idaho: No polls caucus 20D
MI: Biden 38 Sanders 31 125D
MS: No recent polls but strongly Biden +47 in July/19 36D
MO: Biden 48 Sanders 26 68D
ND: No polls caucus 14D
WA: Biden 30 Sanders 32 (Will discuss) 89D
Super Tuesday part 2 is right around the corner and after our last Super Tuesday, let's take a look at what the forecast looks like. Looking at the cursory data of polls and delegate counts, it looks like Tuesday is going to be a long night for Bernie Sanders which is exactly what he needed to not have happen.
Politics is about momentum and moving forward. That is how voters look to see who is strong and how donors loosen their wallets. Super Tuesday was supposed to be the day that Bernie Sanders run away train was supposed to be racking up delegates. That was the conventional wisdom a week before Super Tuesday. The reality was much different.
Heading into Super Tuesday part 2 delegate counts are not what anyone could have predicted. Joe Biden has a healthy 664 to Sanders 573. This is not where Bernie wanted to be after Super Tuesday because the upcoming Super Tuesday promises to relieve even more wind from the Sanders sails.
Mississippi has no recent polling, but Biden had a +47 advantage as of last July. There is not reason to believe that has changed. So much so, Bernie cancelled his plans and headed directly to Michigan.
The next sets of polls to close will be Michigan and Missouri. In 2016, Michigan delivered a big win over Clinton to the Sanders camp. They were hoping for a repeat performance and as of right now, that doesn't appear to be materializing. The consolidation seems to be strengthening behind Biden with a 7 point lead over Sanders. Sanders camp believes their message of Joe voting for NAFTA is the winning message.
Former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm begs to differ with her endorsement for Sanders. "I’m beyond thrilled to endorse Joe Biden. When Michigan was on its knees during the bankruptcies in the auto industry, Joe Biden was our champion inside the Obama Administration. Through the auto rescue, he made sure a million auto manufacturing jobs — in Michigan and throughout the industrial Midwest — were saved. "
Missouri is a conservative state even for Democrats so seeing the polls for Biden should be no shock to anyone.
The trouble is the big prize of the night, Michigan with its 125 delegates and Missouris 68 delegate make up a big pot of prizes for Biden.
North Dakota and Idaho have no polling and Bernie won it 2016. Bernie does well with the caucus. The problem for him is Idaho and North Dakota combined make up only 34 Delegates. One side wrinkle for Idaho is that Hillary Clinton was wildly disliked there and the Boise Mayor endorsed Pete Buttigieg who has gone on to endorse Joe Biden.
Lastly, we come to Washington. This is where Bernie could find some salve for a bad night. Washington is favoring Sanders by 2 points. That's not a lot of points but Sanders needs a win in the column on Super Tuesday even if only for perception.
All in all in promises to be a grim evening for the Sanders camp unless they can make inroads into Michigan. Bernie has several events that are propping up his NAFTA Joe bad, Sanders good efforts. But will it be enough to a state that was losing jobs and going bankrupt when Uncle Joe came through saving their jobs?
At the end of the night, based on projections and trends it will look something like this.
Joe Biden
Mississippi
Michigan
Missouri
Bernie Sanders
North Dakota
Idaho
Washington is a toss up state.
Delegate wise, Joe looks to add to his count 250 to 300 delegate to Bernies 52-100 delegates.
If you're a Sanders supporter, you really want this Super Tuesday over, but spoiler, the following week is looking worse with states like Ohio and Florida showing strong Biden support.
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Member since: Thu Mar 5, 2020, 04:51 PMNumber of posts: 52
