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Celerity

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Gender: Female
Hometown: London
Home country: USA/UK/Sweden
Current location: Stockholm, Sweden
Member since: Sun Jul 1, 2018, 06:25 PM
Number of posts: 7,904

Journal Archives

New SC post debate poll Biden 40%, Steyer 12, Sanders 11, Pete 9, Warren 9, Klobuchar 6

B/C rated


Survey Methodology Included:

57%-Women
61%-African American
32%-65 or older
Data Stratified by Geography
** 11% attended a campaign event
** 38% personally met a candidate or campaign volunteer

Andy Shain
@AndyShain

New #SC2020 poll from SC-based political firm Starboard Communications (1,102 likely Dem primary voters; Feb 26; MoE +/- 2.82%)

Biden - 40%
Steyer - 12%
Sanders - 11%
Warren - 9%
Buttigieg - 9%
Klobuchar - 6%
Gabbard - 2%
Undecided - 12%

(54% watched the #DemDebate in Charleston)


https://twitter.com/walter_whetsell/status/1233097062193025026

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200227_SC.pdf




Brexit and the risks of economic nationalism



In talking about their future relationship with the UK, EU leaders may want to mind their language.

https://www.socialeurope.eu/brexit-and-the-risks-of-economic-nationalism

Though the British premier, Boris Johnson, says he ‘got Brexit done’ last month, the United Kingdom’s future economic relationship with the European Union remains undefined. Officials are ramping up to negotiate but reaching an agreement will be difficult. From a continental point of view, the UK is approaching the negotiations as if from another planet, as the chair of the European Parliament’s Brexit steering group, Guy Verhofstadt, has put it.

The negotiations present EU leaders with an under-appreciated, big-picture dilemma. At their heart will be the question of a ‘level playing field’. European officials say that the UK will have to adhere to the EU’s social, environmental, competition, and possibly even tax standards as a condition for broad and smooth access to the single market. But the British government completely rejects that demand. Its chief negotiator says ‘the point of the whole project’ is freedom for the UK to set its own (potentially lower) standards.

Nationalist thinking

The dilemma confronting the EU is that conditioning market access on UK agreement to this level playing field risks reinforcing nationalist economic thinking. And more such thinking is the last thing any EU leader, from the far left to the centre-right, wants to see. If too many more people come to believe that gains for other countries mean losses for their own, or that international markets force nations to race to the bottom on social standards, the European project—and even many other international economic institutions—will be in serious trouble. Nationalist instincts gave rise to the headache of Brexit in the first place, along with the victory in the United States of 2016’s other great free trade disruptor, Donald Trump.

The president’s approach to the renegotiation of his country’s North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico is telling about the sort of ideas that lead to demands for a level playing field. Trump, an avowed nationalist, criticised NAFTA for years as an unfair deal on which the US was purportedly out-negotiated. Now he promotes his new, more protectionist US-Mexico-Canada Agreement as including ‘unprecedented labor standards that will help level the playing field for [American] workers’. Trump seems to believe that weak labour laws (at least hitherto) have been giving Mexico an advantage in a zero-sum competition with the US. This is strikingly similar to the advantage European officials are suggesting the UK could gain outside the EU—hence their demands that it not drop below European standards.

snip

Bloomberg advert claims he lead NYC through 9/11

New 72 thousand plus case study: COVID-19 mortality rate for 70-79yo's 8%, 80 and over 14.8%

Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China

Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Zunyou Wu, MD, PhD1; Jennifer M. McGoogan, PhD


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420

The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently published the largest case series to date of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China (72 314 cases, updated through February 11, 2020).1 This Viewpoint summarizes key findings from this report and discusses emerging understanding of and lessons from the COVID-19 epidemic.

Epidemiologic Characteristics of the COVID-19 Outbreak
Among a total of 72 314 case records (Box), 44 672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive viral nucleic acid test result on throat swab samples), 16 186 as suspected cases (22%; diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only, no test was performed because testing capacity is insufficient to meet current needs), 10 567 as clinically diagnosed cases (15%; this designation is being used in Hubei Province only; in these cases, no test was performed but diagnosis was made based on symptoms, exposures, and presence of lung imaging features consistent with coronavirus pneumonia), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (1%; diagnosis by positive viral nucleic acid test result but lacking typical symptoms including fever, dry cough, and fatigue).1

Key Findings From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Report

72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)


Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)

Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)

Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)

Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)

Age distribution (N = 44 672)

≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)

30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)

20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)

10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)

<10 years: 1% (416 cases)

Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)

Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)

Severe: 14% (6168 cases)

Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

Case-fatality rate

2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)

14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)

8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)

49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)

Health care personnel infected

3.8% (1716 of 44 672)

63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716)

14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668)



snip

Sanders, per MSNBC, rules out taking any aid or money from Bloomberg in the general

Trump will bury him (and us) with a 1 to 2 billion USD power drop of 24-7 COMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMIE!!!! adverts.

NYT : How Biden's Campaign Explains His 'Arrest' in South Africa

Joe Biden’s claim of being arrested trying to see Nelson Mandela drew skepticism. His campaign called it a “separation.’’

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/us/politics/joe-biden-arrest-mandela.html

CHARLESTON, S.C. — At least three times this month, Joseph R. Biden Jr. has asserted that he was arrested as he sought to visit the anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela in prison, even saying that Mr. Mandela later thanked him for going to such an effort. And for a week, Mr. Biden’s campaign declined to answer questions seeking comment and clarification on those remarks, which were rebutted by a former United States ambassador to the United Nations in an article in The New York Times. Mr. Biden did not mention the episode in his memoir, had not spoken of it prominently on the campaign trail, and a review of available news accounts by The Times did not turn up any mention of an arrest.

But on Tuesday, Kate Bedingfield, a deputy campaign manager, said Mr. Biden was referring to an episode in which he was separated from black colleagues in Johannesburg while on a congressional delegation trip to South Africa in the 1970s. It was the campaign’s first explanation to date — but one that still left many questions unanswered and did not square with Mr. Biden’s most recent remarks. “He was separated from his party at the airport,” Ms. Bedingfield said when pressed by reporters following Tuesday’s presidential debate here.

When a reporter noted that being separated did not constitute an arrest, she repeated, “It was a separation. They, he was not allowed to go through the same door that the — the rest of the party he was with. Obviously, it was apartheid South Africa. There was a white door, there was a black door. He did not want to go through the white door and have the rest of the party go through the black door. He was separated. This was during a trip while they were there in Johannesburg.” Ms. Bedingfield’s account echoes comments Mr. Biden has made in the past, including in his 2013 statement marking Mr. Mandela’s death — but that is not what he has relayed most recently as he campaigned in Nevada and South Carolina, two diverse states.

“I had the great honor of meeting him,” he said of Mr. Mandela, speaking in South Carolina earlier this month. “I had the great honor of being arrested with our U.N. ambassador on the streets of Soweto trying to get to see him” on Robben Island, where Mr. Mandela was imprisoned. Soweto is more than 700 miles away from Robben Island. Andrew Young, who was the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 1977 to 1979, told The Times that he had traveled with Mr. Biden to South Africa but had never been arrested there, and he cast doubt on the idea that members of Congress were arrested in the country.

snip

Pro-MAGA Musician Drops New Country Single/Video: "I Love My Country So Much I Fuck The Flag"

https://www.pastichepost.com/2019/05/14/pro-maga-musician-drops-new-country-single-and-video-i-fk-the-flag/



COLD CAVE HILLS, TENNESSEE — A pro-Trump singer/songwriter on the Confederate Records label has released a new single that is already climbing the country and incestuous adult contemporary charts. Jethro Bohiggins, known around the country as a big, MAGA supporting right-wing YouTube and podcast star, is also a country musician. His new album, “Freedom, Guns, Liberty, and Firearms,” will be released later this year, but Bohiggins released the first single from it a couple of weeks ago. “(I Love My Country So Much I) Fuck the Flag,” is a full throated country power ballad. Bohiggins, announcing the release on his podcast, said that fans should expect a whole album of songs like “Fuck the Flag,” which he calls his first real attempt at “patrioerotica” music.

“That’s music that makes you so love America so much you get so horny you can’t help yourself, and you have to rub your genitals on Old Glory,” Bohiggins said. “I don’t think there are enough people living in America today who truly, truly love her like I love her, and so I wanted to write a song that inspired people to dig in, and really fall head over balls in love with America.” The lyrics of the song are quite evocative, which Bohiggins credits for why the song seems to be resonating with country fans.

“Look, it ain’t a lie. When I sing that freedom gets me hard, it does. I think you can hear the freedom boner in my pants on that track,” Bohiggins said. “Which would make sense because I was rubbing and tugging on it through pretty much every take.” Recording the song took about six months, Jethro says, because he wasn’t able to find anyone in his area to record it with.

“All my musician friends seemed to have other things to do whenever I’d ask them about working with on this song with me,” Bohiggins explained. “So at some point I had to pull up my bootstraps, pull down my pants, and fuck that flag, know what I mean? I mean I literally fucked a flag before writing it, in case I wasn’t clear enough.” Bohiggins understands that his song “ain’t gonna be everyone’s cup o’ moonshine.” “I know libtards don’t even understand what it’s like to admire or respect America, you know, because they all, every single one of them, hate America,” Bohiggins said. “So that’s why I sing about prayin’ to God to kill libtards. Imagine how much more betterer this country would be if everyone in it got so hard-up about it that we were surrounded by pantless flag fuckers? Excuse me while I wipe this tear out of my eye at the thought, fam.”






Bernie cannot win FL in the general, and that means if he loses ANY of the following he loses it all

given the following postulations. If he loses FL then he HAS to win ALL of the flowing states or pairings or he loses the EC, in some cases by a nation ripping-apart 269-269 tie where the Rethugs 26 (or more post election) House delegations will elect the monster Rump.The only 2 state House delegations (ironically WI and FL) where we have a chance to remove a delegation from the Rethugs are gerrymandered up the arse, have Rethug massive voter suppression programmes as well, and are basically insanely hard to flip, PLUS there is a tied state (PA) who the Rethugs very likely may win back if Bernie is at the top of the ticket. ALL those Blue Wave flips in the House that are from pink, purple and red districts are in serious trouble with a Sanders-topped ticket. There is more than a decent chance we lose the House with a Bernie-led ticket.

For arguments sake I will keep ME-2 and NE-2 in the Trump category as Trump won ME-2 (the 2nd most rural district in the US House) by 10 points, and NE-2 voted down a progressive in favour of a Trumper-humper in the massive Blue wave 2018 elections. Obama won it by 1 % in 2008, then lost it in 2012, Hillary lost it in 2016 with only 44.98% of the vote. Those one or two (IF we flip both) EV's only come into play in certain losses of states or pairs, those being worth 9 or 10 EV's. If worth 10 EV's, we would need to flip BOTH or lose 269-269 with the House electing Trump if we flip only one. If we lose 11 EVs or more from the list below, those 2 districts do not matter at all. The odds of Bernie flipping AZ or NC are very, very low, and IA (Hillary won only 41.74% of the vote in 2016) chances are also very low, especially if Bernie loses FL and WI. OH, TX, IN, GA, and MO are in the delusional category as states to place as possible R to D flips with Sanders at the top of the ticket, especially if the economy holds up to any sort of extent.


Lose FL and then ONE of the following states or pairs (given the 2 split districts I already covered, and those only matter for the 9 or 10 EV states/pairs anyway) and we lose

MI

or

PA

or

WI

or

CO

or

MN

or

VA

or

WA


or

NJ

or

NV+NH


or

OR+NH

or

NM+NH

or

OR+NM

or

OR+NV

or

NV+NM

or

CT+NH (CT as a pair partner is added due to it being an insurance centre, which Sanders puts at risk)

or

CT+NM

or

CT+OR

or

CT+NV

Bloomberg's Paid "Volunteers" Are Telling Voters to Support Other Candidates

https://www.gq.com/story/bloomberg-copy-paste-warriors

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is trying a novel strategy to win the Democratic presidential nomination. The former New York City mayor, who was a Republican up until 2013, is skipping the first four races completely and has bet big on Super Tuesday—when a third of the delegates are up for grabs—and the primaries that come after. Bloomberg, who is worth about $61 billion, has already put $460 million into his campaign so far, blowing the rest of the candidates out of the water.

With its 415 pledged delegates, California is one of the big prizes on Super Tuesday, and Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently has a commanding lead in polls there. According to FiveThirtyEight, recent polls have Sanders in first, with an average of 26.7 percent, while Bloomberg comes up second with 14.4 percent—15 percent is the threshold to qualify for any delegates. To bolster his support there, the Los Angeles Times reports, the campaign has hired 500 "deputy field organizers," paying them $2,500 each to promote Bloomberg on social media to their friends and family. A Bloomberg spokesperson said in a statement that the goal is to meet "voters everywhere on any platform that they consume their news."

Based on documents and interviews with some of these organizers, the Times found that many of them are using accounts that are only one or two months old, and that some have fewer than 20 followers. One organizer described the training they received, saying the campaign told them the average person has a network of 750 people on their phones. "They told us, 'We want you to reach out to those friends you’re comfortable talking to and then also those friends you might not have talked to in a while, but might be interested in politics.'"

This is in line with some other unusual approaches that the Bloomberg campaign has taken so far, including funding a massive meme-production effort and a proposed $150 to social media micro-influencers to make content that "tells us why Mike Bloomberg is the electable candidate who can rise above the fray, work across the aisle so ALL Americans feel heard & respected," according to the campaign's listing.

snip

Socialism doesn't freak out Democratic voters the way it freaks out other Americans.That's a problem

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/02/socialism-bernie-sanders-independents-general-election.html

For the past month, the centrist Democrats running against Sen. Bernie Sanders have begged Democratic voters not to nominate him. Former Vice President Joe Biden, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar have argued that putting a socialist atop the ticket would help President Donald Trump and hurt Democratic candidates down the ballot. These warnings are well-founded, but they haven’t worked. Sanders has won the popular vote in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

Why, despite the warnings, is Sanders still winning? One reason is that a lot of people like him and what he stands for. Another reason is that other candidates are splitting the votes of moderate Democrats, leaving him with a plurality on the left. But there’s a third reason: Socialism doesn’t freak out Democratic voters the way it freaks out other Americans. On this subject, Democrats are very different not just from Republicans, but also from independents, who represent about 40 percent of Americans and about 30 percent of the electorate. Socialism is a loser among independents, and this makes it a liability in a general election. But Democrats don’t feel an aversion to socialism. So perhaps they don’t see the extent of the political danger.

The detachment starts with Sanders voters. In a September poll taken by Data for Progress, 37 percent of them identified themselves not as progressives or liberals, but as socialists, democratic socialists, or communists. Nearly all of them endorsed democratic socialism. In a January NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, most Sanders voters endorsed socialism even without the word “democratic” in front of it. Only 4 percent of them opposed it. These people aren’t likely to buy the argument that nominating a socialist is an unnecessary risk. For them, electing a socialist is the ballgame.


But the problem goes beyond Sanders supporters. Rank-and-file Democrats, as a whole, are significantly more pro-socialist than independents are. And while Republicans, conversely, are more anti-socialist than independents are, the gap between Democrats and independents, on average, is about 10 points bigger than the gap between Republicans and independents.

snip



more background


Jacobin Magazine is one of the major driving forces behind the Sanderite movement. They, like the vast majority of the DSA (and many DSA members are actual communists, far beyond garden variety socialists), ARE actual socialists, not social democrats. They want state or socialised control of the means of production. Bernie plays semantic games by labelling as a democratic socialist, but then sort of semi-denies the core tenants of it, whilst leaving himself a lot of wiggle room. He presents himself as a bog standard social democrat but then tries to reinvent our basic language by applying a false definition to the term democratic socialism.

Here is a new (will not be published until April) book by two of the main authors at Jacobin, including Meagan Day, who was the driving force behind the Warren pregnancy controversy pushed hard by the RW (they got it from her first.)

They definitely do NOT see the end game as FDR-style government, they want an overall destruction of the entire capitalist system. Bernie needs to be put on the griddle and grilled hard, not let off the hook, until he dissociates himself from the actual socialists and communists who are some of principal drivers of support and intellectual energy behind his campaign. Divide et impera works, and IF we are serious about stopping his march to the nomination (and thus a probable crushing electoral defeat in the general, making even losing control of the House a distinct possibility), our other candidates need to start to fracture his base by making him denounce the ultra radicals, and if he refuses, to then expose him as a possible Trojan Horse who is trying to have his cake and eat it too.


https://twitter.com/DSACommunists/status/1119311846127722497

https://twitter.com/socialistdogmom/status/1013571840520982528
https://twitter.com/ThatNJSocialist/status/1013611703723012096

Bigger than Bernie
How We Go from the Sanders Campaign to Democratic Socialism


by Meagan Day and Micah Uetricht

https://www.versobooks.com/books/3167-big

The political ambitions of the movement behind Bernie Sanders have never been limited to winning the White House. Since Bernie first entered the presidential primaries in 2016, his supporters have worked to organize a revolution intended to encourage the active participation of millions of ordinary people in political life. That revolution is already underway, as evidenced by the massive growth of the Democratic Socialists of America, the teachers Bernie motivated to lead strikes across red and blue states, and the rising new generation of radicals in Congress—led by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar—inspired by his example.

In Bigger than Bernie, activist writers Meagan Day and Micah Uetricht give us an intimate map of this emerging movement to remake American politics top to bottom, profiling the grassroots organizers who are building something bigger, and more ambitious, than the career of any one candidate. As participants themselves, Day and Uetricht provide a serious analysis of the prospects for long-term change, offering a strategy for making “political revolution” more than just a campaign slogan. They provide a road map for how to entrench democratic socialism in the halls of power and in our own lives.

Bigger than Bernie offers unmatched insights into the people behind the most unique campaign in modern American history and a clear-eyed sense of how the movement can sustain itself for the long haul.





more by Day and Uetricht


Why Bernie Sanders is just the beginning of an American turn to the left
The United States may be on the verge of a huge leftward shift. Here's what to expect


https://www.salon.com/2020/02/22/why-bernie-sanders-is-just-the-beginning-of-an-american-turn-to-the-left/

MICAH UETRICHT - MEAGAN DAY
FEBRUARY 22, 2020 3:00PM (UTC)

snip

Chris Maisano describes the democratic road as a strategy that pursues "election of a left government (likely over multiple contested elections) mandated to carry out a fundamental transformation of the political economy, coordinated with a movement from below to build new institutions and organizations of popular power in society."

Eric Blanc offers a similar formulation. Eventually, after the Left has won significant gains at the ballot box and in civil society, the capitalist class will take the gloves off against socialists and do whatever it takes to destroy our movement. We'll need to fight back. The democratic road to socialism seeks not to elide this confrontation, but to make it possible. To replace capitalism with socialism, writes Blanc, " ( a ) socialists should fight to win a socialist universal suffrage electoral majority in government/parliament and ( b ) socialists must expect that serious anti-capitalist change will necessarily require extra-parliamentary mass action like a general strike and a revolution to defeat the inevitable sabotage and resistance of the ruling class."

Though socialists are likely to be met with capitalist resistance that at times will turn violent, "revolution" doesn't necessitate mass bloodshed — and though we believe in self-defense, we certainly do not advocate violent means. A future socialist government, the late Marxist thinker Ralph Miliband wrote, "has only one major resource, namely its popular support." To pull off a revolution in our circumstances, that popular support would need to be mobilized both inside and outside of government.
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