Democratic Primaries

karynnj

(59,507 posts)

11. The winner might not be the one who gets the most delegates

Sat Jan 18, 2020, 05:31 PM

Jan 2020

If any candidate essentially clears his or her lane, even if they get fewer votes may be the big winner.

Examples:

Assume that Warren does well, while Sanders gets a disappointing result - maybe because he fails to make the threshold in some districts while blowing out others. Even if Buttigieg or Biden beat her on delegates, she might be the biggest beneficiary of Iowa. (Swap Sanders for Warren to get a second example.)

Imagine neither Klobuchar or Buttigieg get many delegates and the three big candidates get about the same number of delegates each. That could be best for Biden no matter who gets one or two more. Later states do not have the same number of progressives and Sanders and Warren could continue to split that vote.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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11 replies

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Highlight:

Predictions: Who will win the Iowa Caucuses? [View all] Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 OP

I say a close one between Biden and Warren RandySF Jan 2020 #1

I think it'll be close regardless...similar to 2016. Drunken Irishman Jan 2020 #2

Your link goes to the NH forecast. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #3

Thanks! Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #4

I think that Joe pulls it out. Blue_true Jan 2020 #5

Which Win? judeling Jan 2020 #6

Good analysis! Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #7

Mayor Pete, Warren, Bernie, and Joe are all within the M.O.E. Algernon Moncrieff Jan 2020 #8

The Debate Dust up judeling Jan 2020 #9

It doesn't matter, really. MineralMan Jan 2020 #10

The winner might not be the one who gets the most delegates karynnj Jan 2020 #11