Predictions: Who will win the Iowa Caucuses?

[Tiggeroshii]

Two weeks from now, Iowans will caucus. Who will win?

Fivethirtyeight projects a 1/3 chance of Joe winning the most delegates, and a 3/10 chance of Bernie winning them. The initial projection is a tie.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/

17 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Unlimited
	Bernie
	6 (35%)
	Elizabeth
	1 (6%)
	Pete
	3 (18%)
	Joe
	7 (41%)
	Amy
	0 (0%)
	Tom
	0 (0%)
	Deval
	0 (0%)
	The other billionaire
	0 (0%)
	Somebody else
	0 (0%)
	Michael
	0 (0%)
	1 DU member did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[RandySF]

1. I say a close one between Biden and Warren

[Drunken Irishman]

2. I think it'll be close regardless...similar to 2016.

[TwilightZone]

3. Your link goes to the NH forecast.

Adjust the link for Iowa: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/

[Tiggeroshii]

4. Thanks!

Fixed

[Blue_true]

5. I think that Joe pulls it out.

It won't be a big win, but to the others, it will be just as damaging, especially if he follows up with a win in New Hampshire.

[judeling]

6. Which Win?

First count before realignment will be close between Sanders and Biden
Second count after realignment will be close between Bernie and Klobuchar
Delegate equivalent will also be close between Bernie and Klobuchar
Media narrative will be Klobuchar.

I know that seems absurd but Bernie and Klobuchar both have the most committed support and because of that have the broadest and deepest organizations when volunteers and professional staff are considered.

Biden has what has been charitably call a weak organization, Buttigieg and Warren have professional operations but very focused geographically. With every one hovering on the cusp of realignment organization will carry the day and in 1700 different places.

When pushed in a poll to select between the four that had 15% or more. Sanders picked up almost all of the Yang, Gabbard and Steyer support. Buttigieg picked up 2/3 of the Klobuchar and Booker support and Biden the rest. My contention is by caucus Buttigieg will have continued his decline and Klobuchar will benefit.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. Good analysis!

[Algernon Moncrieff]

8. Mayor Pete, Warren, Bernie, and Joe are all within the M.O.E.

The debate dustup will be old news by then.

It could be any of them, but I'll guess Bernie by a whisker.

Interesting subplots to watch: a) how does Amy Klobuchar do (I think she's banking on pulling a surprise top 4 finish), b) does Tulsi crack 5% (she's bought enough billboards c) does Yang crack 5% (he needs a credible finish to keep going) d) does John Delaney drop out (God bless him - he's toured Iowa since 2018, but no one is listening to him at this point)

[judeling]

9. The Debate Dust up

Was the kind that hurts. It will play off of 2016 and the Hillary supporters who are with Warren. In the complicated caucus process that could be enough It very much looked like Pete gained much of what Warren lost until she stabilized and once he started to drop Warren regained some of that. We are talking 1 or two points here. Those supporters appeared to be suburban and mainly women from the older cohorts if I'm reading the crosstabs correctly. That is pretty much Hillary Base and the dustup will go right at them. This won't matter as much in the first count except in some of the smaller precincts where Warren was going to fall well below the threshold at the start. But in the second count in those places Warren could help Bernie the precinct captain or a group of Dominant supporters could be enough to steer the group away from Bernie. It is perfectly logical not to hurt your candidate by helping your main rival.

A: from the day she announced she knew she needed a very good Iowa outcome. She is at this point the only candidate that could finish 3rd and surprise enough to claim a win.
B: Tulsi in Iowa will not even crack 3%. This is not a secret ballot and that will have a huge effect.
C: The Gang is devoted enough that I'll be interested in the same.
D: I doubt at this point he will ever drop out, just stop.

[MineralMan]

10. It doesn't matter, really.

The few delegates Iowa sends to the convention will be divided up among four candidates. Meaningless.

[karynnj]

11. The winner might not be the one who gets the most delegates

If any candidate essentially clears his or her lane, even if they get fewer votes may be the big winner.

Examples:

Assume that Warren does well, while Sanders gets a disappointing result - maybe because he fails to make the threshold in some districts while blowing out others. Even if Buttigieg or Biden beat her on delegates, she might be the biggest beneficiary of Iowa. (Swap Sanders for Warren to get a second example.)

Imagine neither Klobuchar or Buttigieg get many delegates and the three big candidates get about the same number of delegates each. That could be best for Biden no matter who gets one or two more. Later states do not have the same number of progressives and Sanders and Warren could continue to split that vote.