Predictions: Who will win the Iowa Caucuses?

[judeling]

6. Which Win?

First count before realignment will be close between Sanders and Biden
Second count after realignment will be close between Bernie and Klobuchar
Delegate equivalent will also be close between Bernie and Klobuchar
Media narrative will be Klobuchar.

I know that seems absurd but Bernie and Klobuchar both have the most committed support and because of that have the broadest and deepest organizations when volunteers and professional staff are considered.

Biden has what has been charitably call a weak organization, Buttigieg and Warren have professional operations but very focused geographically. With every one hovering on the cusp of realignment organization will carry the day and in 1700 different places.

When pushed in a poll to select between the four that had 15% or more. Sanders picked up almost all of the Yang, Gabbard and Steyer support. Buttigieg picked up 2/3 of the Klobuchar and Booker support and Biden the rest. My contention is by caucus Buttigieg will have continued his decline and Klobuchar will benefit.