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58Sunliner

(4,386 posts)
45. I know, but there is plenty of reason to think China is fudging numbers
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 01:34 PM
Feb 2020

because they mismanaged the initial numbers infected and the virus exploded. What does it say when you just send bodies to be cremated for free-unusual, with no samples taken for testing, who died from pneumonia after a new virus is discovered. Those doctors, I think, had to be told not to take samples. In other words, they didn't want to know. And that comes down to hospital policy. It's simple enough to save blood/tissue for diagnostic testing. Even after the number exploding, the Chinese were reluctant to acknowledge that it was spreading human to human. There is just no way you get those numbers blowing up like that in animal to human cases. The ironic part is that in Wuhan, there is a research facility which should have been able to identify rather rapidly, that this was a coronovirus. The numbers for SARS-(which this virus is similar to)


1. Timeline

November 16, 2002

The initial cases of SARS appear in the Guangdong Province, South China.

February 14, 2003

A small notice in the Weekly Epidemiological Record reports 305 cases and 5 deaths from an unknown acute respiratory syndrome which occurred between 16 November and 9 February 2003 in the Guangdong Province, China. (WHO WER 7/2003) The illness is spread to household members and healthcare workers. The Chinese Ministry of Health informs the WHO that the outbreak in Guangdong is clinically consistent with atypical pneumonia. Further investigations rule out anthrax, pulmonary plague, leptospirosis, and hemorrhagic fever.

Two weeks later, at the end of February, the Chinese Ministry of Health reports that the infective agent causing the outbreak of the atypical pneumonia was probably Chlamydia pneumoniae. (WHO WER 9/2003)http://sarsreference.com/sarsref/timeline.htm

The reality was that China tried to cover it up-https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/stopping-the-coronavirus-have-we-learned-the-lessons-from-sars/

The first SARS cases were identified in southern China in November 2002, but the world knew almost nothing until a retired Chinese army doctor blew the whistle in early 2003. The virus was already coursing worldwide by then. Other nations slammed China for covering up information, which it later admitted it had done, supposedly to keep people calm. Ultimately, the national government apologized, and politicians and officials at various levels were fired or resigned.
This time around, officials in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the new coronavirus was first detected, downplayed the risks. They did not institute screening measures until a month after the first case was found, according to CNN. During that time, citizens were reportedly arrested for spreading “rumors” about the start of a new disease like SARS, and journalists who were trying to report on the outbreak later said they were detained or threatened. Finally, President Xi Jinping ordered that the virus be “resolutely contained.” Although health authorities had already shut down the animal market, and the genome sequences had already been shared, much greater preventive actions suddenly began.


I don't believe a word the Chinese govt says.


3 months, 305 cases, supposedly, vs the new strain, which in one month, infected hundreds, if not thousands. Does that move like a virus that needs to mutate from animal to human, to human to human? Doesn't look like it. But I am no virologist.

oh great Skittles Feb 2020 #1
A pademic after buffoon fired head of Emergency Medicine in 2018 dixiegrrrrl Feb 2020 #21
oh jeez Skittles Feb 2020 #27
The US is preparing for the Pandemic by knocking 100's of thousands off Medicaid. nt yaesu Feb 2020 #2
+1 ancianita Feb 2020 #5
The Chinese built a hospital in 10 days. Can the U.S. be prepared? YOHABLO Feb 2020 #3
Duct tape and plastic sheeting time Blues Heron Feb 2020 #6
And Ivanka and Jarred can throw out paper towel rolls. YOHABLO Feb 2020 #32
It's really impressive. EndlessWire Feb 2020 #47
The Lethality Rate is still tracking with the common flu. nt yaesu Feb 2020 #4
I didn't know we had reliable data yet. Chemisse Feb 2020 #7
I've just been comparing the parentage of deaths of know cases to past epidemics/pandemics yaesu Feb 2020 #11
Is that about 2 per 100,000 for the flu? Chemisse Feb 2020 #38
This is a great link dixiegrrrrl Feb 2020 #22
Thanks! Chemisse Feb 2020 #36
It's transmission rate (R0) is tracking at twice that of the flu NickB79 Feb 2020 #9
It is not the same lethality - Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #15
Much Worse than flu. About 40 times the death rate. NutmegYankee Feb 2020 #10
No it's not. Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #12
Not by a long shot. defacto7 Feb 2020 #13
NO - WRONG - it's closer to the Spanish Flu - not seasonal flu jpak Feb 2020 #41
you will find all kinds of percentages from all kinds of sites so WHO really knows, pun intended. nt yaesu Feb 2020 #46
If we have the correct data. I think they have been hiding the true death rate for economic reasons Pisces Feb 2020 #44
So does that mean its about a 1.2% death rate rather than the 3% we were hearing? cstanleytech Feb 2020 #8
Death rate is currently 2.0691665% Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #14
You beat me to it! n/t Pobeka Feb 2020 #17
My mind is blown by al of the people Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #18
They don't want to accept the truth. NutmegYankee Feb 2020 #19
So we essentially have to hope that the Chinese and other governments are on the ball and cstanleytech Feb 2020 #23
Contain or slow it until a vaccine DrToast Feb 2020 #24
Yes and no. Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #25
Unfortunately, those numbers aren't accurate. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #30
All infection tracking is estimated. Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #34
I know, but there is plenty of reason to think China is fudging numbers 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #45
What you have to remember is that China has been asked to use different criteria by the WHO. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #29
Reposting the Johns Hopkins link. Death rate is not really known yet. Pobeka Feb 2020 #16
The key is 2,790 people (14%) are in critical condition. NutmegYankee Feb 2020 #20
Hopefully natural selection does its thing and the surviving strains of the virus are less lethal. roamer65 Feb 2020 #26
Well who knows what the real number of infected people is. I think it might be much higher. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #28
If you are taking an ARB (Angiotensin Receptor Blocker) for high blood pressure... roamer65 Feb 2020 #31
You referred to to it as the WARS virus. That is the Coronavirus? YOHABLO Feb 2020 #33
Wuhan Acute Respiratory Syndrome. nt littlemissmartypants Feb 2020 #43
"Bracing?" Well, we're fucked. Warpy Feb 2020 #35
From The Guardian live thread nitpicker Feb 2020 #37
The percentage of daily increase is declining slightly in China nitpicker Feb 2020 #39
The time to prepare yourself is now - not when the virus has taken hold in US jpak Feb 2020 #40
What are you doing to prepare? NickB79 Feb 2020 #42
Enough food, water and pet supplies for a local in-home 21 day quarantine jpak Feb 2020 #50
I'm not sure there's a great deal individual can do to "prepare." It is up to the government and Nitram Feb 2020 #49
Glad to hear that Hong Kong has closed their border with China. It would be a disaster if it spread Nitram Feb 2020 #48
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