China Cases Top 20,000; U.S. Braces for Pandemic: Virus Update

[left-of-center2012]

Source: Bloomberg

The U.S. said it’s preparing for a possible pandemic and Hong Kong closed more checkpoints with mainland China, as the number of cases passed 20,000.

China’s death toll from the virus rose to 425 as of Feb. 3, according to the National Health Commission, while there are now 20,438 confirmed infections in the country. The commission said 2,788 of the cases are severe.

In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is preparing as if the outbreak in China will eventually spread to the U.S. Scientists are increasingly focusing on bats in their search for an origin of the SARS-like pathogen. Scientists increasingly believe the coronavirus originated in bats, which can harbor hundreds of diseases. As people and wild animals come into increasing contact because of human expansion, future outbreaks are likely.

A heavy proportion of the cases are in Hubei, the province at the center of the outbreak. It earlier reported an additional 64 deaths over the past 24 hours. Hubei’s health commission said confirmed cases increased by 2,345, bringing the total in the province to 13,522.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-03/death-toll-tops-400-u-s-braces-for-pandemic-virus-update?srnd=premium

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By Robert Langreth and Michelle Cortez
February 3, 2020, 3:19 PM MST Updated on February 3, 2020, 5:00 PM MST

[Skittles]

1. oh great

a pandemic, with a fucking BUFFOON and his lapdogs in charge........brace for it, everyone

[dixiegrrrrl]

21. A pademic after buffoon fired head of Emergency Medicine in 2018

and John Bolton closed down the post in 2019.

[Skittles]

27. oh jeez

and that is just for starters

[yaesu]

2. The US is preparing for the Pandemic by knocking 100's of thousands off Medicaid. nt

[ancianita]

5. +1

[YOHABLO]

3. The Chinese built a hospital in 10 days. Can the U.S. be prepared?

[Blues Heron]

6. Duct tape and plastic sheeting time

Maybe roll out some chain link pens - "health zones"

[YOHABLO]

32. And Ivanka and Jarred can throw out paper towel rolls.

[EndlessWire]

47. It's really impressive.

There was supposed to be a second hospital, too, but I haven't heard anything more about it.

[yaesu]

4. The Lethality Rate is still tracking with the common flu. nt

[Chemisse]

7. I didn't know we had reliable data yet.

Do you have a link for this?

[yaesu]

11. I've just been comparing the parentage of deaths of know cases to past epidemics/pandemics

started when it was first reported & its been steady at about 2.3% which is where the common yearly flu is at, lower than the 1918 Spanish flu at 5+%, much, much lower than SARS which was 9.6%

[Chemisse]

38. Is that about 2 per 100,000 for the flu?

Rather than 2%?

I don't have time this morning to find a good source, but I am certain that the seasonal flu does not kill 2 out of 100 people, more like 0.02 %

[dixiegrrrrl]

22. This is a great link

Has all of the important headings at the top, refreshes about every 12 hours.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Chemisse]

36. Thanks!

[NickB79]

9. It's transmission rate (R0) is tracking at twice that of the flu

So if it's the same lethality but infects twice as many people, it becomes twice as lethal by sheer volume of cases alone.

[Ms. Toad]

15. It is not the same lethality -

The calculated death rate counting all infections (even the ones diagnosed today) and all deaths is 2.069%. Those infected today are still likely to create some deaths, even though this calculation treats them as if the risk of deaht has passed - meaning the actual death rate is higher.

The average lethality for influenza is about 0.13%. That's 1/15 of the current (calculated) lethality of the coronavirus.

So both more lethal, and more infections.

[NutmegYankee]

10. Much Worse than flu. About 40 times the death rate.

CDC numbers are 15+ million infections and 8200 deaths. That’s a 0.05% death rate. Most cases of flu do not require hospitalization.

The Coronavirus death rate is 2%. And that doesn’t factor in that 10% are in critical condition and need hospitalization.

[Ms. Toad]

12. No it's not.

at 2+%, it is 15-20 times as lethal as the common flu's average .13% - and that is calculated using the total dead/total confirmed cases (even though about 88% of those have not been infected recently enough to cause death.

In other words, the actual death rate is likey to be even higher once the 18,000 infected since a week ago Saturday have time enough to become sick enough to die.

The estimates I've seen from people who track such things it that it is likely to settle at around 4% (~30 times as deadly as the common flu).

[defacto7]

13. Not by a long shot.

[jpak]

41. NO - WRONG - it's closer to the Spanish Flu - not seasonal flu

Spanish Flu mortality = 2.5 %

2019 Coronavirus = 2.1% (today)

Seasonal flu = 0.14%

[yaesu]

46. you will find all kinds of percentages from all kinds of sites so WHO really knows, pun intended. nt

[Pisces]

44. If we have the correct data. I think they have been hiding the true death rate for economic reasons

[cstanleytech]

8. So does that mean its about a 1.2% death rate rather than the 3% we were hearing?

[Ms. Toad]

14. Death rate is currently 2.0691665%

That is calculated using actual deaths (426) divided by confirmed infections (20588).

It is likely to be higher (not lower), once more of the 18,000 people infected since a week ago saturday become ill enough to die. (In other word the 426 people who have died are primarily from the first few weeks of the illness - from the infections that have run their course and who are either dead or largely recovered.

[Pobeka]

17. You beat me to it! n/t

[Ms. Toad]

18. My mind is blown by al of the people

quoting lethality rates and transmission rates lower than the common flu, H1N1, or the swine flu - when the numbers are easily available and don't support those assertions.

[NutmegYankee]

19. They don't want to accept the truth.

I quoted last weeks statistics from the CDC above, which has the flu tracking at 1/40th the death rate of Coronavirus.

[cstanleytech]

23. So we essentially have to hope that the Chinese and other governments are on the ball and

are able to contain it?

[DrToast]

24. Contain or slow it until a vaccine

But that’s a ways away.

[Ms. Toad]

25. Yes and no.

A lot of it will depend on China keeping it to themselves. (Containing it, slowing down the transmission, etc.)

Other countries need to be sensible with quarantines for people entering from China - 14 days seems like a relatively safe period - I was very grateful when the US woke up in time to impose it on those evacuated from the epicenter in China.

People need to be more careful about contact. I don't get the influenza vaccine - and I'm pretty sure the last time I had the flu was 2009 when my daughter had it and I had to ride in a small car with her for about an hour. I get a mild cold perhaps every other year.

I've worked with bosses who insisted on coming to work sick (pretending they weren't), coughing, sneezing, wiping snotty hands all over papers they handed me to work on. It was those bosses who inspired me (in advance of surgery I didn't want to delay) to develop better hygiene habits. I haven't directly touched a door handle coming out of a bathroom in years. I never touch any door handle during the period in which I wear long sleeves (roughly corresponding to the flu season). I obsessively wash my hands. I avoid touching my face unless i've just washed my hands. If i do have a cold, I never touch my face or blow my nose without instantly using hand sanitizer (and washing at least once an hour).

Some of those are to protect me - some are to protect others.

It is not inevitable that if you are around people with a viral infection that you will acquire it.

[58Sunliner]

30. Unfortunately, those numbers aren't accurate.

No one knows the real numbers. They are approximate based on incomplete testing of both the live and those who died without being tested.

[Ms. Toad]

34. All infection tracking is estimated.

It's the nature of the beast.

The numbers I'm working off of are the best available - All confirmed cases, and all confirmed deaths.

[58Sunliner]

45. I know, but there is plenty of reason to think China is fudging numbers

because they mismanaged the initial numbers infected and the virus exploded. What does it say when you just send bodies to be cremated for free-unusual, with no samples taken for testing, who died from pneumonia after a new virus is discovered. Those doctors, I think, had to be told not to take samples. In other words, they didn't want to know. And that comes down to hospital policy. It's simple enough to save blood/tissue for diagnostic testing. Even after the number exploding, the Chinese were reluctant to acknowledge that it was spreading human to human. There is just no way you get those numbers blowing up like that in animal to human cases. The ironic part is that in Wuhan, there is a research facility which should have been able to identify rather rapidly, that this was a coronovirus. The numbers for SARS-(which this virus is similar to)


1. Timeline

November 16, 2002

The initial cases of SARS appear in the Guangdong Province, South China.

February 14, 2003

A small notice in the Weekly Epidemiological Record reports 305 cases and 5 deaths from an unknown acute respiratory syndrome which occurred between 16 November and 9 February 2003 in the Guangdong Province, China. (WHO WER 7/2003) The illness is spread to household members and healthcare workers. The Chinese Ministry of Health informs the WHO that the outbreak in Guangdong is clinically consistent with atypical pneumonia. Further investigations rule out anthrax, pulmonary plague, leptospirosis, and hemorrhagic fever.

Two weeks later, at the end of February, the Chinese Ministry of Health reports that the infective agent causing the outbreak of the atypical pneumonia was probably Chlamydia pneumoniae. (WHO WER 9/2003)http://sarsreference.com/sarsref/timeline.htm

The reality was that China tried to cover it up-https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/stopping-the-coronavirus-have-we-learned-the-lessons-from-sars/

The first SARS cases were identified in southern China in November 2002, but the world knew almost nothing until a retired Chinese army doctor blew the whistle in early 2003. The virus was already coursing worldwide by then. Other nations slammed China for covering up information, which it later admitted it had done, supposedly to keep people calm. Ultimately, the national government apologized, and politicians and officials at various levels were fired or resigned.
This time around, officials in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the new coronavirus was first detected, downplayed the risks. They did not institute screening measures until a month after the first case was found, according to CNN. During that time, citizens were reportedly arrested for spreading “rumors” about the start of a new disease like SARS, and journalists who were trying to report on the outbreak later said they were detained or threatened. Finally, President Xi Jinping ordered that the virus be “resolutely contained.” Although health authorities had already shut down the animal market, and the genome sequences had already been shared, much greater preventive actions suddenly began.

I don't believe a word the Chinese govt says.


3 months, 305 cases, supposedly, vs the new strain, which in one month, infected hundreds, if not thousands. Does that move like a virus that needs to mutate from animal to human, to human to human? Doesn't look like it. But I am no virologist.

[58Sunliner]

29. What you have to remember is that China has been asked to use different criteria by the WHO.

They have not been testing everyone who dies, and because testing supplies are limited, can not test everyone who is ill. The WHO specifically has said they need new criteria because the numbers don't seem accurate. So best guess is the death rate is maybe lower, as the infection rate is higher. The transmission rate is also probably higher. Scary. People who posted criticisms are being summoned to the authorities. It's China.

[Pobeka]

16. Reposting the Johns Hopkins link. Death rate is not really known yet.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Of the approx 20k known infected, 2% have died. But, only 3% have recovered. That means the outcome for 95% of those stil infected is unknown because they have neither died nor recovered.

[NutmegYankee]

20. The key is 2,790 people (14%) are in critical condition.

Some will die, some will recover, but if this went pandemic hospitals would overflow and we'd run out of beds.

[roamer65]

26. Hopefully natural selection does its thing and the surviving strains of the virus are less lethal.

That is how the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-1920 eventually burned out.

I do think the anti-HIV drugs are going to make a serious dent in the this viruses ability to spread.

[58Sunliner]

28. Well who knows what the real number of infected people is. I think it might be much higher.

Because if I thought that over 13% of infected people needed care in an ICU with isolation, I would start freaking out. We would easily be overwhelmed if the numbers held here.

[roamer65]

31. If you are taking an ARB (Angiotensin Receptor Blocker) for high blood pressure...

make sure to stay up on your dose.

Drugs like Valsartan and the other “sartans” inhibit uptake through the same cell membrane receptor that the virus uses to get into the cell. The ACE2 receptor.

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m325/rr

By taking these meds, you are making it harder for the WARS virus to gain access.

[YOHABLO]

33. You referred to to it as the WARS virus. That is the Coronavirus?

[littlemissmartypants]

43. Wuhan Acute Respiratory Syndrome. nt

[Warpy]

35. "Bracing?" Well, we're fucked.

Rich men will head to well guarded estates, leaving the rest of us with inadequate insurance, inadequate hospital infrastructure, inadequate stocks of antiviral drugs, inadequate staffing, and absolutely no plan to deal with any of it. Maybe we'll get tent cities to house the sick, what a great idea during the worst of winter!

Oh, rich men will get it, too, as long as they have staff running errands for them.

Since this thing seems to have such a long incubation period, we're likely seeing people who were infected up to 2 weeks ago showing up. We still won't know for another week how infectious this thing is to airline passengers. That will give us a better idea of how bad it's likely to be. So far, it looks less infectious than influenza. That can change, and the increase in new cases above 2000 after a week of holding steady is very worrisome.

[nitpicker]

37. From The Guardian live thread

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/04/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update

(snip)
5h ago
05:31

I have just been looking at figures of daily increases in deaths from the virus in China and of new infections. The state-run Global Times has put the figures from the National Health Commission into a useful graphic.

Charts show daily figures of confirmed cases of novel #coronavirus in Hubei Province and all of China. Hubei reported 2,345 new cases and 64 deaths on Feb 3 compared with 3,235 new cases and 64 deaths nationwide. pic.twitter.com/h2XhqJN4Td
(snip)

[nitpicker]

39. The percentage of daily increase is declining slightly in China

From just under 22% from 1 Feb to just under 20% on the 2nd to just under 19% on the 3rd.

This may reflect "You've already infected your nearest and you can't get out to infect others".

However, if it remains around 18% growth daily, a projection would give about 150,000 total cases by 15 Feb.

I hope this IS over-exaggeration.

[jpak]

40. The time to prepare yourself is now - not when the virus has taken hold in US

Just sayin'

[NickB79]

42. What are you doing to prepare?

I'm getting started as well.

[jpak]

50. Enough food, water and pet supplies for a local in-home 21 day quarantine

Full oil and propane tanks - for heating

20 gallons of gasoline in the shed for the snow blower and car.

N95 masks (Home Depot - and they are all gone today locally), Nitrile gloves, protective googles - if I really have to leave the house.

Antiseptic wipes, Clorox and paper towels

and of course - lawyers, guns and money (and vodka and weed)

I have solar phone chargers, lanterns and flashlights - and kerosene lamps and heaters if the power goes out and I run out of propane

This is going to take months or years to resolve.

And I don't like anything I see about this at all.

[Nitram]

49. I'm not sure there's a great deal individual can do to "prepare." It is up to the government and

the CDC to take measures that prevent the virus from getting a foothold in the US. Washing your own hands isn't going to prevent the spread of the virus in the US unless everyone is doing it.

[Nitram]

48. Glad to hear that Hong Kong has closed their border with China. It would be a disaster if it spread

to Hong Kong, one of the most densely populated cities in the world.