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In reply to the discussion: Mexico says it will take legal action against US over El Paso shooting [View all]jimmy the one
(2,708 posts)Last edited Tue Aug 6, 2019, 08:44 AM - Edit history (1)
igel: Overall, the weird thing is that as the numbers of firearms per capita has increased in the last 15 years or so the per {capita} gun-related murder rate's declined. That's as part of an overall decline in crime, to be sure, but if the theory says "high firearm ownership rates lead to high per capita firearm death rates," the prediction has to be "higher firearm ownership rates lead to higher per capita firearm death rates."
The flaw in your reasoning is you conflate firearms per capita, with gun ownership rates, they are generally not the same. Thus the latter conclusions of your paragraph above generally hold true.
The decline in crime & violent crime & gun crime, has roughly occurred concurrently with a decline in gun ownership rates, especially between 1992 & 2000, the clinton years. While national gunstock has indeed increased, the increase has inordinately been distributed amongst existing gun owners, failing to comparatively increase new gun ownership..
There are 3 reputable polls that show gun ownership RATES have fallen over the past 30 years: Gallup*, Pew, & GSS (general social survey). {Note: CBS has recently corroborated this trend with a poll ~2016, diverging slightly. *Gallup corroborates for the bush years 2000 - 2008}
1) Gallup: .. even Gallup's numbers show a decline in gun ownership since the early 1990s, from 54% of households in late 1993 to 43%.
2) General Social Survey (GSS) .. data show a substantial decline in the shares of both households and individuals with guns... 1973, 49% reported having a gun or revolver in their home or garage. In 2012, 34% said they had a gun in their home or garage.
.. personal gun ownership in 1980, 29% said a gun in their home personally belonged to them. This stands at 22% in the 2012 GSS survey. http://www.people-press.org/2013/03/12/section-3-gun-ownership-trends-and-demographics/
3) ... The Pew Research Center has tracked gun ownership since 1993, and our surveys largely confirm the General Social Survey trend. In our Dec 1993 survey, 45% reported having a gun in their household; in early 1994, the GSS found 44% saying they had a gun in their home. A Jan 2013 Pew Research Center survey found 33% saying they had a gun, rifle or pistol in their home, as did 34% in the 2012 wave of {GSS}.
According to all 3 polls above, personal & household gun ownership rates fell dramatically {~35%} during the same 8 yr time period as when violent crime & total crime rates fell dramatically {~35%}, ~1992 - 2000.
National gunstock increased during that time period as well ({over 75 millions}, also to now, but is demonstrably shown that a solid portion of those guns went to existing gun owners rather than creating any increase in the rate of gun owners.
The clinton crime initiative went into effect in 1994, which also had an affect on declining violent crime rates, but wouldn't've affected 1992, 93, 94.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1172&pid=178997
June 30, 2016 Despite a recent uptick in gun sales, the percentage of U.S. households that own guns is at its lowest level in almost four decades, a new poll has found.
A recent CBS News poll found that 36% of adults either personally own a firearm or live with someone who doesthe lowest level since 1978. Thats 10% lower than gun ownership rates in 2012 and 17 points lower than 1994s high of 53%.
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