General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Hlllary Clinton strongest non-incumbent in history=Nate Silver on 2016 presidential- [View all]stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Americans all saw at the same time and were talking about for a long time afterwards. He probably gained 10 million or so supporters in that one moment.
He was a new face, became a brand new senator a few months later and every speech he gave was at least an eight or nine on a scale of 1-10. Even so, he barely beat Hillary by the slimmest of margins.
We are now 1 year late, comparatively, in terms of the time frame for someone to emerge to be a similar figure for 2016. Anyone new who would emerge for 2016 does not have the benefit of a convention speech that would focus 25-40 million Americans on them for a single speech. They don't have enough time to pull it together if their first congressional or senate seat win would be in 2014.
Anyone new wouldn't have the benefit of Hillary having only 8 years of senate experience behind her and little else in terms of elected office experience. Now, Hillary has been Secretary of State, historically the second most important position in the country.
Anyone new would have to face a campaign that has likely learned the lessons of the 2008 campaign including the importance of taking all of the first 10 early caucus states seriously. If Hillary had done that in 2008 she would have won the nomination in 2008 easily without breaking a sweat regardless of Obama's charisma and appeal.
People seem to forget that despite the Hillary campaign making a dozen critical mistakes and facing one of the most charismatic figures in recent American history, and her own limited resume, the race was essentially a tie. Take the limited resume out because its not a legitimate knock now, take most if not all the mistakes out, and add that we are 1 year behind the time when Obama emerged limiting the ability of anyone to emerge and build a following and I honestly don't see how anyone could prevail against her. It's only a question if she decides to run, which I frankly think is a foregone conclusion considering the "Ready for Hillary" efforts that are proceeding with her OK.