Hlllary Clinton strongest non-incumbent in history=Nate Silver on 2016 presidential-

[graham4anything]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2013/06/28/the_strongest_non-incumbent_in_history.html



The Strongest Non-Incumbent in History
Nate Silver on Hillary Clinton: "From the standpoint of the party primary, it's almost as though she's an incumbent president, right, where she even trumps, kind of, the VP, who very often wins nomination after a president is term-limited. If you look at polls, you know, 60 to 70 percent of Democrats say they prefer Hillary to be the nominee. There's no kind of non-incumbent in history with those types of numbers."

(video at link)

[dsc]

1. well maybe one

Ike had some pretty awesome numbers back in the day.

[pscot]

3. George Washington too

And Grant. We love our generals.

[Recursion]

18. And Harrison and Jackson. Less so Garfield, Tyler, and Pierce (nt)

[Whisp]

2. dog save us all, if that is the case.

[DURHAM D]

6. "us" ?

[Whisp]

7. oh, I know what you mean.

Had to think about that for a minute.

It's because I'm not Muriken, that I don't have a right to be fearful of who the next President will be, right?

You are the freedom Fry person, right?

Sorry, memory isn't all That good, but good enough to survive.

[DURHAM D]

9. I have no clue what your freedom Fry reference is about.

I knew the minute I saw the OP you would be here to take a dump. I am just surprised you didn't make your usual reference to NAFTA which is so very funny given that you are Canadian.

[Beacool]

12. The rest will be trooping in soon enough.

Any post on a Clinton and they rush to crap on it.

[Whisp]

15. I think you have me confused with others with that NAFTA thing.

there is so much to pick from, I never got that far down the list.

don't think
but who knows, I'm Canadian! you just can't trust us.

[DURHAM D]

17. Blaming Hillary for NAFTA has been your thing for years.

You have posted dozens and dozens, actually probably hundreds, of times about how awful it is. It is your number one reason for hating Bill and Hillary.

I see you are a host in the Barack Obama Group. How do you like all those changes he has made to NAFTA?

[Whisp]

19. now I'm sure you have me mixed up with someone else.

My specialty for Hillary is Tuzla.

and that question she got about conflict of interest in colombia where she loses her mind.

[DURHAM D]

21. keep dancing

[Whisp]

23. if it's that important to you, I will accept your accusation on NAFTA.

under duress, of course!

[delrem]

32. right. you've never heard of "freedom fries".

For that kind of honesty:

[DonCoquixote]

4. And then

She can finish off destroying the Democratic left.

[MADem]

5. You tell 'em, Nate!!! nt

[Historic NY]

8. And Jebby Bush is giving her a medal..........

[Beacool]

10. Oh, that's going to go well around here.

[DURHAM D]

11. Yep.

[Beacool]

13. The bitters will be here soon enough.

4.....3.....2.....1.

[Apophis]

14. Good gods, I hope she's not the nominee.

[gcomeau]

22. If she runs... she is. Not really a question. -eom

...

[Apophis]

24. So it's going to be a Republican vs a Republican-lite for President.

Great.

[gcomeau]

25. Don't be a child.

Spare us the ridiculous hyperbole.

[Apophis]

28. Yeah. Hyperbole.

[gcomeau]

31. The eye rolling indicates...

...either you are unfamiliar with the meaning of the word hyperbole, or all Republicans have been invisible to you for the last several decades so you have no idea what calling someone one actually entails.

I'm curious which it is...

[delrem]

33. exactly: it'll be a republican vs a republican. Simple.

[HooptieWagon]

36. OK, Corporatist Republican vs Corporatist Dem.

Sound better to you? Not to many of us. We're getting awful tired of the DLC.

[hughee99]

16. Really, not Nixon in 1960?

He got 5 million votes in the primary, the closest competitor, George Bender, got 200k. Of course, I don't know what is polling numbers were in 1957.

To Clinton's advantage over most of her potential competitors, she won't have to spend the next 3 years making votes or enforcing policies that people don't like. With no legislative or executive responsibilities, she is free to only discuss those topics that would enhance her candidacy.

In the end, I still don't believe she'll run.

[tritsofme]

29. Nixon was the incumbent VP in 1960

A qualification Silver makes in his post.

[hughee99]

30. As sorry, I need to pay attention. n/t

[madinmaryland]

20. Heh! I was wondering when hillary4anything would chime in!!

[David__77]

26. If she runs for the Democratic nomination, I will happily campaign against her.

She cannot redeem herself after her detestable campaign in 2008.

[stevenleser]

27. Are you talking from the perspective of an Obama supporter?

Her loyal and enthusiastic support of him in the general election and as Secretary of State is more than enough to smooth over issues from the nomination race times about one million.

[Whisp]

35. I'm not so sure of her loyalty as SoS.

Time may very well tell a different story than you have in mind.

[pnwmom]

57. +1. n/t

[Beacool]

34. Detestable???????

Oh yeah, how dare she run against a Senator on his second year of his first term. The nerve of her..........

[HooptieWagon]

37. She did run a bad campaign.

Acted like she was entitled to the nomination. Planned poorly. Hired bad peep. Ran out of money. Played the race card. Her surrogates lied repeatedly. Certainly brought out the ugly side of her. I wasn't impressed.

[Beacool]

41. That's a matter of opinion.

I was not impressed with what we ended up getting. A lot of vapid speeches and little substance.

To each his/her own.

[HooptieWagon]

43. I'm not thrilled with what we ended up with either.

Then again, there wasn't much in the way of choices.
And although it is my opinion HC ran a poor campaign, that opinion is substantiated by the fact that HC was the clear front-runner prior to the Primaries, she had already locked up mega$ in corporate support, had many super-delegates committed, and the endorsement of most Democratic leaders...yet still managed to lose. Thats a choke job of pretty epic proportions.

[Beacool]

47. The Clintons never make the same mistake twice.

The campaign's mistake was not preparing well enough for the caucus states and hiring Mark Penn. I have no issue with the rest of it. As for the super delegates, that's how Obama ended up getting the nomination. If the Democratic party ran their primaries like the Republicans, she would have clenched the nomination after Super Tuesday. A lot of stuff went behind the scenes in 2008. It's ironic how people like Pelosi and McCaskill are now "praying", like Pelosi said, that Hillary runs in 2016. I wouldn't trust those two backstabbers with anything.

I have no idea whether Hillary will choose to put herself through that ordeal again, but of what thing I am certain: if she runs, she wins.

[Whisp]

48. well, that's the problem for Hillary right there: what you said:

If the Democratic party ran their primaries like the Republicans, she would have clenched the nomination after Super Tuesday.

She was running in the wrong party primary. Lots would agree!

[Beacool]

49. Oh, you're so clever.........

[HooptieWagon]

56. It was Hillary supporters who moved Fla's primary date up,

And caused Fla to loose their delegates. HC tried to front-load the primaries, ended up biting her in the ass.
Perhaps she did learn a lesson...we shall see.

[Beacool]

58. No, that's not so.

It was the state legislature who pushed the move. Republicans held the majority.

Here's Rubio's take on this (he was the Speaker at the time).

“We have people who get invited to a big party where they drop a balloon and people wear funny hats,” said Marco Rubio, speaker of the State House of Representatives. “But they don’t have any role to play.”

“At the end of the day,” said Mr. Rubio, a Republican, “the truth of the matter is that the nominee of either party is going to want to make sure they have not offended the big donors and the biggest activists in the most important state in the country that is electorally available.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/04/us/politics/04florida.html?_r=0

[HooptieWagon]

60. Bullshit.

It was a Democrat who proposed moving the Primary date up, and all but one Dem voted for it. It most certainly was not mean old bully republicans that forced the bill through. It was Hillary's supporters .

[Beacool]

62. Yeah, whatever.

Reality is that the Republicans held the majority. If they hadn't wanted the bill to pass, it wouldn't have passed.

[graham4anything]

38. my response to some comments above is as always FORWARD,Hillary winning landslide with voters united

Add President Obama's supporters- 95% of President Obama's supporters heavily support President Obama
95% of President Obama's supporters heavily support Hillary Clinton for President in 2016
100% of Hillary's supporters heavily support Hillary for President in 2016

conclusion- there is NO way anyone else but Hillary will be the democratic nominee for President in 2016 by far.
There are NOT enough other voters out there to vote for anyone but Hillary and Hillary has so many supporters, that it goes
without saying Hillary will be the next President by a landslide, and like in 2008 and 2012

with the direct support of President Obama, Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and so many other DEMOCRATIC people behind her,
the voters SHALL COME OUT no matter how hard it will be in some states to vote

And IMHO, red states today will and shall vote for Hillary and she will also turn Texas blue

I was sure of this before this week

I am 100times more sure of this today, after the abysmal Voting rights acts bill the other day, it has woken everybody up,
and except for some wedge issues otherwise, people are looking at this and I have never been so sure of anything except that I knew President Obama would become President, I am sure Hillary will be our next President.

The only thing we don't know is, who is her VP.

As for the 2008 president race, all that is behind both Hillary and President Obama. Ancient backward past.
Both of them long ago settled that, by the single most ingenious political move since LBJ accepted the VP with JFK.

President Obama's offering of SOS to Hillary was HIS OWN DOING. Many on his staff were startled by it and it wasn't their idea
President Obama tossed his ego out the window (unlike other times in the past when ego caused startling embarrising fracture like in 1980 for instance among other things)

and then Hillary, also did the same and accepted the job, and in doing so, worked to move FORWARD

I was a Barack Obama supporter way back in 2004, and was obviously for him in 2008 primaries.

I myself cannot recall any other time in history(my history) that someone I was not for, EARNED my vote and my respect forever
as Hillary has done by putting aside the acrimony, by her not sulking like others in the past after they did not win the primary
(and especially I am thinking of Bill Bradley who now has up and disappeared from the scene for years, just recently coming back
to side with the President, but after his loss to Al Gore, (he would have made a great VP), he just left the arena.

Hillary put aside the 2008 race, and became the best SOS we have had.

And note-a few weeks ago, it was released that the 3 people who ran her campaign and did so badly (Penn especially) all 3
will NOT - repeat NOT be working with her this time. So they will have nothing to do with 2016 at all.
Of that we can all applaud.

Hopefully Hillary will have either officially or unofficially, Plouffe and Axelrod working with her during the general election season
and like they did with President Obama, get every single person out to the polls no matter the obstacle.

Every true President Obama and Hillary supporter knows this-the only thing that can stop the democratic party from winning in 2016
is fracture.
No true democratic supporter wants to lose in 2016.
The only people who would not want the democratic party to win in 2016, are the ones who will be campaigning against the democratic party and hoping the republican party gets into office.

I am sure, as President Obama says, we should all dwell on FORWARD and not replay any negativity from the 2008 race.

Because surely, together BOTH contestants from 2008 will be President.
And, in retrospect, Hillary will have the ability to be president without a lot of the crap President Obama has had to go through.
It all would have(in different ways of course) been similliar had HIllary won.
Instead of the overt and covert racism, it would have been sexism.
But in 2016, it will be such a landslide, and with the senate being very easily in 2016 able to win a landslide for the democratic party based on who is running then (the 1/3 seats running (as opposed to 2014 when chance has made it harder based on which of the 1/3 is running again), come 2017, the democratic party will have all 3 branches, and most likely

in 2017 or 2018, the US Supreme Court will have that game changing seat open and the democratic party will again have a court
that is 5 to 4 for, instead of 5 to 4 against.
(figuring the next two Obama appointments will be status equal appointments for a retiring Ginsberg(2015) and Breyer.)

The ones after shall be the game changers.

[hobbit709]

65. What are you on that's giving you these hallucinations?

[Fumesucker]

39. "Hillary is a monster" -Samantha Power, Obama's designate for UN Ambassador

[graham4anything]

40. We move ahead by moving forward. 95% of the voters landslide victory.The other 5%, oh well.

Add President Obama's supporters- 95% of President Obama's supporters heavily support President Obama
95% of President Obama's supporters heavily support Hillary Clinton for President in 2016
100% of Hillary's supporters heavily support Hillary for President in 2016

conclusion- there is NO way anyone else but Hillary will be the democratic nominee for President in 2016 by far.
There are NOT enough other voters out there to vote for anyone but Hillary and Hillary has so many supporters, that it goes
without saying Hillary will be the next President by a landslide, and like in 2008 and 2012

with the direct support of President Obama, Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and so many other DEMOCRATIC people behind her,
the voters SHALL COME OUT no matter how hard it will be in some states to vote

And IMHO, red states today will and shall vote for Hillary and she will also turn Texas blue

I was sure of this before this week

I am 100times more sure of this today, after the abysmal Voting rights acts bill the other day, it has woken everybody up,
and except for some wedge issues otherwise, people are looking at this and I have never been so sure of anything except that I knew President Obama would become President, I am sure Hillary will be our next President.

The only thing we don't know is, who is her VP.

As for the 2008 president race, all that is behind both Hillary and President Obama. Ancient backward past.
Both of them long ago settled that, by the single most ingenious political move since LBJ accepted the VP with JFK.

President Obama's offering of SOS to Hillary was HIS OWN DOING. Many on his staff were startled by it and it wasn't their idea
President Obama tossed his ego out the window (unlike other times in the past when ego caused startling embarrising fracture like in 1980 for instance among other things)

and then Hillary, also did the same and accepted the job, and in doing so, worked to move FORWARD

I was a Barack Obama supporter way back in 2004, and was obviously for him in 2008 primaries.

I myself cannot recall any other time in history(my history) that someone I was not for, EARNED my vote and my respect forever
as Hillary has done by putting aside the acrimony, by her not sulking like others in the past after they did not win the primary
(and especially I am thinking of Bill Bradley who now has up and disappeared from the scene for years, just recently coming back
to side with the President, but after his loss to Al Gore, (he would have made a great VP), he just left the arena.

Hillary put aside the 2008 race, and became the best SOS we have had.

And note-a few weeks ago, it was released that the 3 people who ran her campaign and did so badly (Penn especially) all 3
will NOT - repeat NOT be working with her this time. So they will have nothing to do with 2016 at all.
Of that we can all applaud.

Hopefully Hillary will have either officially or unofficially, Plouffe and Axelrod working with her during the general election season
and like they did with President Obama, get every single person out to the polls no matter the obstacle.

Every true President Obama and Hillary supporter knows this-the only thing that can stop the democratic party from winning in 2016
is fracture.
No true democratic supporter wants to lose in 2016.
The only people who would not want the democratic party to win in 2016, are the ones who will be campaigning against the democratic party and hoping the republican party gets into office.

I am sure, as President Obama says, we should all dwell on FORWARD and not replay any negativity from the 2008 race.

Because surely, together BOTH contestants from 2008 will be President.
And, in retrospect, Hillary will have the ability to be president without a lot of the crap President Obama has had to go through.
It all would have(in different ways of course) been similliar had HIllary won.
Instead of the overt and covert racism, it would have been sexism.
But in 2016, it will be such a landslide, and with the senate being very easily in 2016 able to win a landslide for the democratic party based on who is running then (the 1/3 seats running (as opposed to 2014 when chance has made it harder based on which of the 1/3 is running again), come 2017, the democratic party will have all 3 branches, and most likely

in 2017 or 2018, the US Supreme Court will have that game changing seat open and the democratic party will again have a court
that is 5 to 4 for, instead of 5 to 4 against.
(figuring the next two Obama appointments will be status equal appointments for a retiring Ginsberg(2015) and Breyer.)

The ones after shall be the game changers.

[Beacool]

50. Yeah, and she had to quit his campaign.

Of course he brought her back after he won. That's politics.

[Fumesucker]

55. It was a gaffe, defined as a politician inadvertently telling the truth n/t

[Beacool]

59. Truth????

Last edited Sat Jun 29, 2013, 05:15 PM - Edit history (1)

What truth? Hillary is the most admired woman in this country and has been so for many years. She is no monster.

I can't believe the bullshit one reads in this place. The RW hasn't cornered the market on the nuttery. There's plenty right here too.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

42. Ugh. 3rd Way warmonger who trumpeted Bush's wars.

[closeupready]

61. Yes she did. Will never forget that. Though

I will support her if she wins the nomination.

[whatchamacallit]

44. She won't get my vote, no matter what DU demands I do n/t

[Beacool]

51. Suit yourself.

No one is demanding anything.

[marmar]

45. Who cares, it's 2013.

[graham4anything]

46. Cory Booker Oct. 2013 senate vs. a Koch brotherbacked ultra conservative

the earlier the team in place, the bigger the 2014 take back of the house

one doesn't go into a big game without a coach

[BeyondGeography]

52. Credible

[LittleBlue]

53. Same was said in 2007, how did that turn out?

INEVITABLE

[PoliticalPothead]

54. Hopefully we get an actual progressive candidate to run against her.

Elizabeth Warren would be perfect.

[Beacool]

64. She's not ready.

Never ran for elective office before her senate run and barely won in a blue state.

[Whisp]

68. your judgement on readiness needs some work

so I won't be taking your word on Warren's.

[Beacool]

71. Your judgment on anything Clinton needs even more work.

So pardon me if I ignore anything you have to say on the matter.

[Whisp]

73. Oh, you want to talk about pardons, do you? Marc Rich.

http://www.latimes.com/news/obituaries/la-me-marc-rich-20130627,0,809438.story

Marc Rich dies at 78; his pardon by Clinton stirred controversy
The billionaire commodities trader was indicted on fraud and other charges in the U.S. and fled to Switzerland in 1983. Clinton received political donations from Rich's ex-wife and pardoned him on his last day in office.

Rich fled from the United States to Switzerland in 1983 after he was indicted by a U.S. federal grand jury on more than 50 counts of fraud, racketeering, trading with Iran during the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis and evading more than $48 million in income taxes — crimes that could have earned him more than 300 years in prison.

He remained on the FBI's Most Wanted List until Clinton granted him a pardon Jan. 20, 2001 — the day he left the White House.

[Beacool]

76. Yeah, so?

Hillary is not Bill. She's a separate person.

[Beacool]

63. Except that this time there won't be another Obama coming out of the woodwork.

Furthermore, she never said she was inevitable. Not in 2008 and let alone now where she hasn't even decided whether to run or not. That was media driven.

[LittleBlue]

66. How do you know?

Are you certain no one is coming out of the woodwork? Happened once already.

[stevenleser]

67. Obama had come out of the woodwork 4 years beforehand via a convention speech that 38 million

Americans all saw at the same time and were talking about for a long time afterwards. He probably gained 10 million or so supporters in that one moment.

He was a new face, became a brand new senator a few months later and every speech he gave was at least an eight or nine on a scale of 1-10. Even so, he barely beat Hillary by the slimmest of margins.

We are now 1 year late, comparatively, in terms of the time frame for someone to emerge to be a similar figure for 2016. Anyone new who would emerge for 2016 does not have the benefit of a convention speech that would focus 25-40 million Americans on them for a single speech. They don't have enough time to pull it together if their first congressional or senate seat win would be in 2014.

Anyone new wouldn't have the benefit of Hillary having only 8 years of senate experience behind her and little else in terms of elected office experience. Now, Hillary has been Secretary of State, historically the second most important position in the country.

Anyone new would have to face a campaign that has likely learned the lessons of the 2008 campaign including the importance of taking all of the first 10 early caucus states seriously. If Hillary had done that in 2008 she would have won the nomination in 2008 easily without breaking a sweat regardless of Obama's charisma and appeal.

People seem to forget that despite the Hillary campaign making a dozen critical mistakes and facing one of the most charismatic figures in recent American history, and her own limited resume, the race was essentially a tie. Take the limited resume out because its not a legitimate knock now, take most if not all the mistakes out, and add that we are 1 year behind the time when Obama emerged limiting the ability of anyone to emerge and build a following and I honestly don't see how anyone could prevail against her. It's only a question if she decides to run, which I frankly think is a foregone conclusion considering the "Ready for Hillary" efforts that are proceeding with her OK.

[Whisp]

69. maybe so that there is no Obama this time around but

there is also a much longer record of Hillary's, some of which is not so good. Lots of which is not so good. She was in a better spot in '08 than now.

Despite all the generic talk about her greatness, her record is very thin in actuality.

[Beacool]

70. No, she wasn't.

But you'll bash Hillary no matter what the reality is. She's in a better position now because she was SOS for four years and earned a lot of praise along the way. Benghazi not withstanding, as that's a RW manufactured scandal.

[Whisp]

72. Benghazi, Schmenghazi... it's the State Dept Sex Assault and Pedophilia scandal

/cover up that is something I am sure the Clinton's are chewing their well manicured nails over.

Shoes still to drop on that one.

[Beacool]

75. You bore me............

[idwiyo]

74. Hopefully majority of the voters would wake up and finally elect someone better than that.

A lot better than that.

[mick063]

77. I won't vote for her

unless she comes out with a non negotiable stance on several issues.

Sometimes the wildebeast just gives up and goes into shock rather than endure a prolonged, painful struggle for survival.

In other words, if we are headed to corporate totalitarianism, just get it over with so I can adjust quickly to the new environment.

No more piece meal change to corporatism with pseudo Republicans offering false hope.

If we are going there, dive in head first with some crazy Teabillie in charge.

It is the only method that will work. The slow incremental change is not shocking enough. The "boiled frog" method is apparently working exceedingly well. Only when blanket outrage occurs will true change begin to occur.

[graham4anything]

78. I vow that I will NOT tear down any candidate that runs against Hillary.

Why give fodder for the republican party of JebBush/Rand Paul?

Let's tear down Bush and Paul and Rubio and Christie and all the others.

If some here like someone other than Hillary, instead of saying anti-Hillary stuff, just say positive whoever stuff.

Remember, in 1988, the great Mike Dukakis in the debate got hurt by the Bernie Shaw question,
yet it was A DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGER that brought the situation up, later used by Rove.

Positive your choices, let's not tear others down

Remember, SCOTUS depends on a democratic president winning in 2017.

That is going to be the term that the big switch on the court can happen.

So, I vow not to tear others down, and just say the positives about Hillary.

It would be nice to all do the same.

Same with all senate/house/governors. Say positives about primary runs but not tear down each other.