In your opinion, where are we in this pandemic?

[Doodley]

10. If you look at other countries there's often an equal number of cases before and

after the peak. If we follow that, we would be at eight or nine million cases before getting into low new case numbers.

However, because of inadequate testing and a lack of leadership on mask wearing, distancing and the opening of businesses and schools, you would expect the curve to take much more time to flatten, so add the minimum of another four or five million. That puts us at thirteen million, absolute minimum number of cases, if things go well, which is being optimistic and I think it is unlikely to be that low.

But it is too unpredictable to know. I am talking only about known case numbers. Most people who get the virus are not tested. Some estimates are that there are up to twelve times the positive testing numbers. We really have no good data on how widespread it is.