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In your opinion, where are we in this pandemic? (Original Post) kentuck Aug 2020 OP
Still in the beginning. We have 2 - 3 years to go before we get back to theaters, concerts etc Arazi Aug 2020 #1
I'd say we'd be lucky to be back to normal by next spring, but you're probably closer. brewens Aug 2020 #5
3rd inning dem4decades Aug 2020 #2
I was going to say bottom of the 2nd MANative Aug 2020 #18
Potentially, we could have it "subdued." Grokenstein Aug 2020 #3
Beginning jpak Aug 2020 #4
Agreed. Given that Covid is intertwined with the economy - the poor get hit harder, empedocles Aug 2020 #7
beginning (US will continue to be a disaster, too many RWNJ) Getting Rump and Moscow (as leader) out Celerity Aug 2020 #6
Still in the beginning peacefreak2.0 Aug 2020 #8
In just the beginning , duforsure Aug 2020 #9
If you look at other countries there's often an equal number of cases before and Doodley Aug 2020 #10
We never got out of the first wave. BlueTsunami2018 Aug 2020 #11
in our county the cases are more than when we went into shelter in place.. samnsara Aug 2020 #12
Just at the start Sherman A1 Aug 2020 #13
We are up a creek BigmanPigman Aug 2020 #14
Fucked. N/T Lochloosa Aug 2020 #15
Beginning, which is why we're acting so bungling about it soothsayer Aug 2020 #16
I'm definitely not qualified in the medical field to give an informed opinion, but Jamastiene Aug 2020 #17
beginning stage no doubt as everything that was done 4 months ago, now useless beachbumbob Aug 2020 #19
A year from now... Alacritous Crier Aug 2020 #20
We can start any time scarytomcat Aug 2020 #21
very early, perhaps 1-5% of the way there. Amishman Aug 2020 #22
We used to have weekly parties.... usedtobedemgurl Aug 2020 #23
End of the beginning. We were (barely) starting down the slope of new cases. though deaths jmg257 Aug 2020 #24
About halfway in Chapter 2 dalton99a Aug 2020 #25
Still at the beginning. llmart Aug 2020 #26
Third Inning. Baseball methaphor seems fitting, because this could also go extra innings. n/t Tom Rinaldo Aug 2020 #27
Right where we were at the beginning, no magic cures, half the country says "its just the flu, bros" Baclava Aug 2020 #28
1/8 to 1/4 of the way. Nt BootinUp Aug 2020 #29

brewens

(13,397 posts)
5. I'd say we'd be lucky to be back to normal by next spring, but you're probably closer.
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:32 AM
Aug 2020

Forget about Christmas as we know it this year. "The Trump That Killed Christmas" could be something someone more creative that I am could work with.

Grokenstein

(5,707 posts)
3. Potentially, we could have it "subdued."
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:15 AM
Aug 2020

It would still exist, there would be flare-ups, but the number of cases would be right down there where Li'l Don-Don wants us to pretend they're at.

But for that to happen, everyone would have to wear a mask and practice social distancing, so...hunker down for the long haul, I guess.

empedocles

(15,751 posts)
7. Agreed. Given that Covid is intertwined with the economy - the poor get hit harder,
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:36 AM
Aug 2020

'the pandemic' is lengthened by the unfortunate hit on the more vulnerables.

As a nation, we are becoming poorer. Many jobs are not coming back. GDP, etc., will take a big hit. It will become apparent even to comfortable republicons after awhile. This is a years long, bad, process.

Celerity

(42,662 posts)
6. beginning (US will continue to be a disaster, too many RWNJ) Getting Rump and Moscow (as leader) out
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:35 AM
Aug 2020

are keys at a federal level.

duforsure

(11,882 posts)
9. In just the beginning ,
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:37 AM
Aug 2020

And by not getting nearly enough direct checks out monthly like others have done successfully , trump and republicans are heading us towards a trump depression from it soon. trump's lost on handling the virus , and its kicking his ass, and with republicans too.

Doodley

(8,976 posts)
10. If you look at other countries there's often an equal number of cases before and
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:38 AM
Aug 2020

after the peak. If we follow that, we would be at eight or nine million cases before getting into low new case numbers.

However, because of inadequate testing and a lack of leadership on mask wearing, distancing and the opening of businesses and schools, you would expect the curve to take much more time to flatten, so add the minimum of another four or five million. That puts us at thirteen million, absolute minimum number of cases, if things go well, which is being optimistic and I think it is unlikely to be that low.

But it is too unpredictable to know. I am talking only about known case numbers. Most people who get the virus are not tested. Some estimates are that there are up to twelve times the positive testing numbers. We really have no good data on how widespread it is.

samnsara

(17,570 posts)
12. in our county the cases are more than when we went into shelter in place..
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:42 AM
Aug 2020

.....im thinking maybe next year this time I may venture out of my house for more than the 1 x weekly trip to town for essentials.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
13. Just at the start
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:44 AM
Aug 2020

Hopefully a vaccine is available within about 12 months and we can start to unscrew this mess.

Jamastiene

(38,187 posts)
17. I'm definitely not qualified in the medical field to give an informed opinion, but
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 07:04 AM
Aug 2020

common sense says when kids go back to school, most everyone ends up catching whatever they spread. I think we are in the beginning but heading toward the middle, right before we see real spikes that will make the "spikes" in numbers this summer look like little blips on the radar. I think it is about to explode and become a real problem now. What we have had so far has been a bit more controlled. Once kids start back to school, especially with so many red states who don't take social distancing or distance learning seriously, we will start to see the real spikes then.

 

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)
19. beginning stage no doubt as everything that was done 4 months ago, now useless
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:01 AM
Aug 2020

as the rush to reopen and ignore safety been pushed almost from day one with trump and gop. Now we will face the travesty of schools being forced to reopen with little guidance and no money.

Amishman

(5,541 posts)
22. very early, perhaps 1-5% of the way there.
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:29 AM
Aug 2020

18.4 million cases world wide.
7 billion people.
0.26%

Assume 4x that due to lack of testing or faked numbers from oppressive countries.

So 1% of the global population has gotten it.

Its not going away, too contagious and widespread to stop - it can only be slowed. There are concerns of the feasibility of an effective vaccine and also duration of immunity. This would make herd immunity impossible.

Worst case, everyone gets it eventually, we are 1% of the way there. Less than that if reinfection / mutation follows the pattern of other corona viruses (such as those that are part of the collection that comprise the common cold)

Middle case, no vaccine but herd immunity is possible through vaccine or conventional exposure and immune response. We stop at around 50% infected. Then we are 2% of the way there.

Best case, vaccine in about a year with lighting distribution. We might only end up with a billion or two infected.

usedtobedemgurl

(1,100 posts)
23. We used to have weekly parties....
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:30 AM
Aug 2020

Someone recently asked how long it would be before they resume. I stayed there was no way to know, but if Biden were ejected, the country would probably go on total lockdown, so it could be (not definitely) as early as next April or May. If orange anus was re-elected, nothing will be done and it could be a minimum of 2-3 more years, at least. By then we will be a third world country and there may not be much left of us.

The very earliest I can see is a little less than a year from now. That is assuming everyone cooperated with Biden. I think there is a good part of this country who have been brain washed a a good part who care not about others. They will defy/ignore any orders put forth by Biden.

We will see what happens. In other words, we are barely out the door.

jmg257

(11,996 posts)
24. End of the beginning. We were (barely) starting down the slope of new cases. though deaths
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:31 AM
Aug 2020

still huge:

US

Yesterday's data (8/5/2020)
NEW CASES: 57,540
DEATHS: 1,399


But they decided to open a lot of schools with millions and millions of kids and staff etc, many areas with no required social distancing or mask policies, so the beginning of the next phase is on its way.

By winter we may be poised for the 2nd wave with an elevated jump off from the 1st...along with the Flu, it will be a disaster.
 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
28. Right where we were at the beginning, no magic cures, half the country says "its just the flu, bros"
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 10:07 AM
Aug 2020

"Only the old and sick need to worry"
"Wearing a mask takes away muh freedoms"
"Its all a political hoax, the numbers are fake"

Yeah, we've come a long way baby, not

Nothing has changed, the same shit is being spouted from the top

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