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Wed Aug 5, 2020, 05:56 AM

In your opinion, where are we in this pandemic?

Still in the beginning?

Or in the middle?

Or near the end?

Does anyone really know?

29 replies, 699 views

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Reply In your opinion, where are we in this pandemic? (Original post)
kentuck Aug 5 OP
Arazi Aug 5 #1
brewens Aug 5 #5
dem4decades Aug 5 #2
MANative Aug 5 #18
Grokenstein Aug 5 #3
jpak Aug 5 #4
empedocles Aug 5 #7
Celerity Aug 5 #6
peacefreak2.0 Aug 5 #8
duforsure Aug 5 #9
Doodley Aug 5 #10
BlueTsunami2018 Aug 5 #11
samnsara Aug 5 #12
Sherman A1 Aug 5 #13
BigmanPigman Aug 5 #14
Lochloosa Aug 5 #15
soothsayer Aug 5 #16
Jamastiene Aug 5 #17
beachbumbob Aug 5 #19
Alacritous Crier Aug 5 #20
scarytomcat Aug 5 #21
Amishman Aug 5 #22
usedtobedemgurl Aug 5 #23
jmg257 Aug 5 #24
dalton99a Aug 5 #25
llmart Aug 5 #26
Tom Rinaldo Aug 5 #27
Baclava Aug 5 #28
BootinUp Aug 5 #29

Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:06 AM

1. Still in the beginning. We have 2 - 3 years to go before we get back to theaters, concerts etc

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Response to Arazi (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:32 AM

5. I'd say we'd be lucky to be back to normal by next spring, but you're probably closer.

Forget about Christmas as we know it this year. "The Trump That Killed Christmas" could be something someone more creative that I am could work with.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:10 AM

2. 3rd inning

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Response to dem4decades (Reply #2)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 07:38 AM

18. I was going to say bottom of the 2nd

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:15 AM

3. Potentially, we could have it "subdued."

It would still exist, there would be flare-ups, but the number of cases would be right down there where Li'l Don-Don wants us to pretend they're at.

But for that to happen, everyone would have to wear a mask and practice social distancing, so...hunker down for the long haul, I guess.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:26 AM

4. Beginning

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Response to jpak (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:36 AM

7. Agreed. Given that Covid is intertwined with the economy - the poor get hit harder,

'the pandemic' is lengthened by the unfortunate hit on the more vulnerables.

As a nation, we are becoming poorer. Many jobs are not coming back. GDP, etc., will take a big hit. It will become apparent even to comfortable republicons after awhile. This is a years long, bad, process.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:35 AM

6. beginning (US will continue to be a disaster, too many RWNJ) Getting Rump and Moscow (as leader) out

are keys at a federal level.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:36 AM

8. Still in the beginning

and about to get worse.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:37 AM

9. In just the beginning ,

And by not getting nearly enough direct checks out monthly like others have done successfully , trump and republicans are heading us towards a trump depression from it soon. trump's lost on handling the virus , and its kicking his ass, and with republicans too.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:38 AM

10. If you look at other countries there's often an equal number of cases before and

after the peak. If we follow that, we would be at eight or nine million cases before getting into low new case numbers.

However, because of inadequate testing and a lack of leadership on mask wearing, distancing and the opening of businesses and schools, you would expect the curve to take much more time to flatten, so add the minimum of another four or five million. That puts us at thirteen million, absolute minimum number of cases, if things go well, which is being optimistic and I think it is unlikely to be that low.

But it is too unpredictable to know. I am talking only about known case numbers. Most people who get the virus are not tested. Some estimates are that there are up to twelve times the positive testing numbers. We really have no good data on how widespread it is.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:39 AM

11. We never got out of the first wave.

Because of the absolute idiocy of our “leadership”.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:42 AM

12. in our county the cases are more than when we went into shelter in place..

.....im thinking maybe next year this time I may venture out of my house for more than the 1 x weekly trip to town for essentials.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:44 AM

13. Just at the start

Hopefully a vaccine is available within about 12 months and we can start to unscrew this mess.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:44 AM

14. We are up a creek

and forget paddles, we don't even have a boat. Basically, we are in Hell.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:45 AM

15. Fucked. N/T

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 06:58 AM

16. Beginning, which is why we're acting so bungling about it

By the end we might be better at it

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 07:04 AM

17. I'm definitely not qualified in the medical field to give an informed opinion, but

common sense says when kids go back to school, most everyone ends up catching whatever they spread. I think we are in the beginning but heading toward the middle, right before we see real spikes that will make the "spikes" in numbers this summer look like little blips on the radar. I think it is about to explode and become a real problem now. What we have had so far has been a bit more controlled. Once kids start back to school, especially with so many red states who don't take social distancing or distance learning seriously, we will start to see the real spikes then.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:01 AM

19. beginning stage no doubt as everything that was done 4 months ago, now useless

as the rush to reopen and ignore safety been pushed almost from day one with trump and gop. Now we will face the travesty of schools being forced to reopen with little guidance and no money.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:08 AM

20. A year from now...

we'll be right about at the halfway point.





GOTV.


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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:19 AM

21. We can start any time

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:29 AM

22. very early, perhaps 1-5% of the way there.

18.4 million cases world wide.
7 billion people.
0.26%

Assume 4x that due to lack of testing or faked numbers from oppressive countries.

So 1% of the global population has gotten it.

Its not going away, too contagious and widespread to stop - it can only be slowed. There are concerns of the feasibility of an effective vaccine and also duration of immunity. This would make herd immunity impossible.

Worst case, everyone gets it eventually, we are 1% of the way there. Less than that if reinfection / mutation follows the pattern of other corona viruses (such as those that are part of the collection that comprise the common cold)

Middle case, no vaccine but herd immunity is possible through vaccine or conventional exposure and immune response. We stop at around 50% infected. Then we are 2% of the way there.

Best case, vaccine in about a year with lighting distribution. We might only end up with a billion or two infected.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:30 AM

23. We used to have weekly parties....

Someone recently asked how long it would be before they resume. I stayed there was no way to know, but if Biden were ejected, the country would probably go on total lockdown, so it could be (not definitely) as early as next April or May. If orange anus was re-elected, nothing will be done and it could be a minimum of 2-3 more years, at least. By then we will be a third world country and there may not be much left of us.

The very earliest I can see is a little less than a year from now. That is assuming everyone cooperated with Biden. I think there is a good part of this country who have been brain washed a a good part who care not about others. They will defy/ignore any orders put forth by Biden.

We will see what happens. In other words, we are barely out the door.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:31 AM

24. End of the beginning. We were (barely) starting down the slope of new cases. though deaths

still huge:

US
Yesterday's data (8/5/2020)
NEW CASES: 57,540
DEATHS: 1,399


But they decided to open a lot of schools with millions and millions of kids and staff etc, many areas with no required social distancing or mask policies, so the beginning of the next phase is on its way.

By winter we may be poised for the 2nd wave with an elevated jump off from the 1st...along with the Flu, it will be a disaster.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:37 AM

25. About halfway in Chapter 2

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:38 AM

26. Still at the beginning.

I think we'll see huge spikes after Labor Day and school starting.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:39 AM

27. Third Inning. Baseball methaphor seems fitting, because this could also go extra innings. n/t

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 10:07 AM

28. Right where we were at the beginning, no magic cures, half the country says "its just the flu, bros"

"Only the old and sick need to worry"
"Wearing a mask takes away muh freedoms"
"Its all a political hoax, the numbers are fake"

Yeah, we've come a long way baby, not

Nothing has changed, the same shit is being spouted from the top

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 03:43 PM

29. 1/8 to 1/4 of the way. Nt

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