General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: I have seen calls/ cries for Unity or we will lose 2020. I have a couple words for you. [View all]Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)That's why we can't win 60 or 70 seats.
Midterm electorates are older and more conservative, at default, compared to presidential years. When we have the national slant in our favor like 2006 and 2018, the best we can hope for is that the electorate resembles a presidential year.
But when Republicans own the midterm slant like 1994, 2010, and 2014, the demographic of the electorate is considerably more favorable to their side than a presidential year.
That is all the difference. For example, in 2016 presidential year the conservative/liberal split in the exit poll was 9% at 35-26. This year thanks to independents on our side we managed to mirror the 2016 split, at 36% conservatives and 27 liberals, so again a 9% gap. That was an excellent result.
But compare to 2014, when that ideological gap exploded to 14% at 37% conservatives and 23% liberals. That's the reason Republicans can pick off 50 to 70 seats when everything is tilted in their direction.
If we got a bizarre unheard-of midterm split of let's say 34% conservatives to 30% liberals, then absolutely we could grab 50 or 60 seats, perhaps more.
But that is basically impossible right now because our strongholds like youth voters don't turn out in same percentage as older voters who lean GOP.