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Celerity
Celerity's Journal
Celerity's Journal
April 15, 2024
The US today has extraordinary levels of gun ownership. But to see this as a venerable tradition is to misread history
https://aeon.co/essays/america-fell-for-guns-recently-and-for-reasons-you-will-not-guess
In 1970, amid a national confrontation with the United States’ gun culture following the assassinations of Robert F Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr, the historian Richard Hofstadter struggled to make sense of how the country had become the ‘only industrial nation in which the possession of rifles, shotguns, and handguns is lawfully prevalent among large numbers of its population.’ Writing for the magazine American Heritage, he expressed grave concern for a country ‘afloat with weapons – perhaps as many as 50 million of them – in civilian hands.’ If the US was afloat then, it’s flooded now.
Half a century later, Americans own approximately 400 million firearms and the country carries the unfortunate distinction of being the only one in the world in which guns are known to be the leading cause of child and adolescent death. Today, Americans live with around 1.2 guns per capita – double that of the next-highest scoring country, Yemen. Despite having less than 5 per cent of the global population, the US possesses nearly half of the world’s civilian-owned guns. Moreover, in recent years Americans have witnessed a surge in gun sales and gun-related deaths, unfolding against a backdrop of increasingly lenient gun laws across states. In light of these developments, Hofstadter’s question takes on renewed urgency: ‘Why is it that in all other modern democratic societies those endangered ask to have such men disarmed, while in the United States alone they insist on arming themselves?’ How did the US come to be so terribly exceptional with regards to its guns?
From the viewpoint of today, it is difficult to imagine a world in which guns were less central to US life. But a gun-filled country was neither innate nor inevitable. The evidence points to a key turning point in US gun culture around the mid-20th century, shortly before the state of gun politics captured Hofstadter’s attention. Firearm estimates derived from gun sales and surveys indicate that, in 1945, there were somewhere around 45 million guns in the US at a time when the country had 140 million people. A quarter-century later, by 1970, the number of guns doubled, whereas the population increased by a little less than 50 per cent. By 2020, the number of guns had skyrocketed to nearly tenfold of its 1945 rate, while the population grew less than 2.5 times the 1945 number.
From the mid-20th century to today, guns also changed from playing a relatively minor role in US crime to taking centre-stage. Research by the criminologist Martin Wolfgang on Philadelphia’s homicide patterns from 1948 to 1952 reveals that only 33 per cent of the city’s homicides involved a firearm. Today, 91 per cent of homicides in Philadelphia feature a gun. Similarly, the national firearm homicide rate is 81 per cent. In addition, opinion polls traced the evolution over the second half of the 20th century from Americans buying guns primarily for hunting and recreation to buying them for self-protection against other people. Together, these findings reveal a sea change in US gun culture between the mid-20th century and the present day. So, how did this change happen? Until recently, it’s been difficult to say. The paucity of historical data on gun availability has left the origins of the country’s exceptional gun culture a mystery.
snip
Why America fell for guns
The US today has extraordinary levels of gun ownership. But to see this as a venerable tradition is to misread history
https://aeon.co/essays/america-fell-for-guns-recently-and-for-reasons-you-will-not-guess
In 1970, amid a national confrontation with the United States’ gun culture following the assassinations of Robert F Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr, the historian Richard Hofstadter struggled to make sense of how the country had become the ‘only industrial nation in which the possession of rifles, shotguns, and handguns is lawfully prevalent among large numbers of its population.’ Writing for the magazine American Heritage, he expressed grave concern for a country ‘afloat with weapons – perhaps as many as 50 million of them – in civilian hands.’ If the US was afloat then, it’s flooded now.
Half a century later, Americans own approximately 400 million firearms and the country carries the unfortunate distinction of being the only one in the world in which guns are known to be the leading cause of child and adolescent death. Today, Americans live with around 1.2 guns per capita – double that of the next-highest scoring country, Yemen. Despite having less than 5 per cent of the global population, the US possesses nearly half of the world’s civilian-owned guns. Moreover, in recent years Americans have witnessed a surge in gun sales and gun-related deaths, unfolding against a backdrop of increasingly lenient gun laws across states. In light of these developments, Hofstadter’s question takes on renewed urgency: ‘Why is it that in all other modern democratic societies those endangered ask to have such men disarmed, while in the United States alone they insist on arming themselves?’ How did the US come to be so terribly exceptional with regards to its guns?
From the viewpoint of today, it is difficult to imagine a world in which guns were less central to US life. But a gun-filled country was neither innate nor inevitable. The evidence points to a key turning point in US gun culture around the mid-20th century, shortly before the state of gun politics captured Hofstadter’s attention. Firearm estimates derived from gun sales and surveys indicate that, in 1945, there were somewhere around 45 million guns in the US at a time when the country had 140 million people. A quarter-century later, by 1970, the number of guns doubled, whereas the population increased by a little less than 50 per cent. By 2020, the number of guns had skyrocketed to nearly tenfold of its 1945 rate, while the population grew less than 2.5 times the 1945 number.
From the mid-20th century to today, guns also changed from playing a relatively minor role in US crime to taking centre-stage. Research by the criminologist Martin Wolfgang on Philadelphia’s homicide patterns from 1948 to 1952 reveals that only 33 per cent of the city’s homicides involved a firearm. Today, 91 per cent of homicides in Philadelphia feature a gun. Similarly, the national firearm homicide rate is 81 per cent. In addition, opinion polls traced the evolution over the second half of the 20th century from Americans buying guns primarily for hunting and recreation to buying them for self-protection against other people. Together, these findings reveal a sea change in US gun culture between the mid-20th century and the present day. So, how did this change happen? Until recently, it’s been difficult to say. The paucity of historical data on gun availability has left the origins of the country’s exceptional gun culture a mystery.
snip
April 14, 2024
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-04-12-financial-irregularities-house-candidate-patel/
As first-term Congresswoman Summer Lee (D-PA) faces an onslaught of far-right cash attacking her in her April 23 primary, a Prospect investigation has found that the main beneficiary of that spending, local official and primary opponent Bhavini Patel, failed to disclose a substantial gift she received, in violation of campaign finance laws. Additionally, a review of publicly available information has found that Patel may be engaged in a complex scheme to elide federal campaign finance limits, and failed to make required personal financial disclosures during her abortive 2022 campaign for Congress. The revelations come as a super PAC backed by Jeffrey Yass, the largest Republican donor in 2024, has spent $606,000 attacking Lee and boosting Patel, according to a review of federal campaign finance records.
Patel has also received significant fundraising assistance from groups like the Hindu American PAC, which works to elect candidates supportive of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi is a member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the world’s largest far-right organization, whose early leaders effusively praised Hitler and cooperated with British rule. Last year, a member of Modi’s cabinet called Mahatma Gandhi’s assassin, who was a member of the RSS, a “worthy son” of India. The RSS has a major network in the U.S., and figures active in that network have fundraised for Patel, The Intercept reported in February. Super PACs supporting pro-Israel candidates, like Democratic Majority for Israel and United Democracy Project, have stayed out of the race, despite making Rep. Lee one of their top targets previously.
Patel is a member of the Edgewood, Pennsylvania, Borough Council. Had she been in elective office in December 2020, she would have been required to disclose a substantial gift she received then, wherein she was deeded onto a house with a market value of about $110,000 for the price of $1—a gift with an approximate value of $55,000. The person who deeded her the house is named Vinay Patidar. Both Patidar and Patel are unmarried. As she is currently unemployed while running for Congress, the rental income from both this house in Monroeville, Pennsylvania, and another house in Pittsburgh that she used the home in Monroeville as collateral for, provides the majority of her income, disclosures show. Those same disclosures show that she received between $15,000 and $50,000 in rental income for the Monroeville property, which Patidar continued to list as his address on an October 2021 mortgage application.
Even just $15,000 in annual rent for a $110,000 property with just 50 percent ownership of the home is well above market value, according to a Prospect analysis of local rents. In October 2021, Patidar and Patel received what appears to be a home equity line of credit for $130,000, which Patel almost certainly used to purchase a house in Swissvale, Pennsylvania, for exactly $130,000 the following month. The Swissvale house, however, is exclusively in Patel’s name—so the home equity line of credit likely produced an additional $65,000 gift from Patidar, on top of the $55,000 stake she received in December 2020. Patel never disclosed a $65,000 gift from Patidar in her 2021 filing, where Patel erroneously stated that she had no real property interests. The Prospect was able to track Patel’s real estate stakes from a review of Allegheny County property records. Failure to make required disclosures is a misdemeanor, with fines of up to $1,000 and up to a year’s incarceration.
snip
Financial Irregularities Surround House Candidate Bhavini Patel
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-04-12-financial-irregularities-house-candidate-patel/
As first-term Congresswoman Summer Lee (D-PA) faces an onslaught of far-right cash attacking her in her April 23 primary, a Prospect investigation has found that the main beneficiary of that spending, local official and primary opponent Bhavini Patel, failed to disclose a substantial gift she received, in violation of campaign finance laws. Additionally, a review of publicly available information has found that Patel may be engaged in a complex scheme to elide federal campaign finance limits, and failed to make required personal financial disclosures during her abortive 2022 campaign for Congress. The revelations come as a super PAC backed by Jeffrey Yass, the largest Republican donor in 2024, has spent $606,000 attacking Lee and boosting Patel, according to a review of federal campaign finance records.
Patel has also received significant fundraising assistance from groups like the Hindu American PAC, which works to elect candidates supportive of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi is a member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the world’s largest far-right organization, whose early leaders effusively praised Hitler and cooperated with British rule. Last year, a member of Modi’s cabinet called Mahatma Gandhi’s assassin, who was a member of the RSS, a “worthy son” of India. The RSS has a major network in the U.S., and figures active in that network have fundraised for Patel, The Intercept reported in February. Super PACs supporting pro-Israel candidates, like Democratic Majority for Israel and United Democracy Project, have stayed out of the race, despite making Rep. Lee one of their top targets previously.
Patel is a member of the Edgewood, Pennsylvania, Borough Council. Had she been in elective office in December 2020, she would have been required to disclose a substantial gift she received then, wherein she was deeded onto a house with a market value of about $110,000 for the price of $1—a gift with an approximate value of $55,000. The person who deeded her the house is named Vinay Patidar. Both Patidar and Patel are unmarried. As she is currently unemployed while running for Congress, the rental income from both this house in Monroeville, Pennsylvania, and another house in Pittsburgh that she used the home in Monroeville as collateral for, provides the majority of her income, disclosures show. Those same disclosures show that she received between $15,000 and $50,000 in rental income for the Monroeville property, which Patidar continued to list as his address on an October 2021 mortgage application.
Even just $15,000 in annual rent for a $110,000 property with just 50 percent ownership of the home is well above market value, according to a Prospect analysis of local rents. In October 2021, Patidar and Patel received what appears to be a home equity line of credit for $130,000, which Patel almost certainly used to purchase a house in Swissvale, Pennsylvania, for exactly $130,000 the following month. The Swissvale house, however, is exclusively in Patel’s name—so the home equity line of credit likely produced an additional $65,000 gift from Patidar, on top of the $55,000 stake she received in December 2020. Patel never disclosed a $65,000 gift from Patidar in her 2021 filing, where Patel erroneously stated that she had no real property interests. The Prospect was able to track Patel’s real estate stakes from a review of Allegheny County property records. Failure to make required disclosures is a misdemeanor, with fines of up to $1,000 and up to a year’s incarceration.
snip
April 14, 2024
https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2024-04-12-fed-keeps-getting-inflation-wrong/
President Biden made two catastrophically bad appointments. One was Attorney General Merrick Garland. The other was Fed Chair Powell. Either could literally cost Biden his presidency and the country its democracy—Garland by having slow-walked Trump’s prosecution and Powell by needlessly slowing the economy. The latest inflation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released Wednesday, showed the Consumer Price Index ticking up by 0.4 percent in March, the same as in February, but slightly higher than expected. This in turn set off signals from the Fed that expected rate reductions would have to be postponed, and near-hysterical media commentary. The Dow duly dropped more than a thousand points.
According to one press report after another, the economy was stuck with high inflation; high interest rates would persist; and Biden’s election-year good-news economy would be stuck with a bad-news story. But if you bother to take a close look at the details of the actual price increases by sector, they have nothing to do with the kind of inflation that justifies high interest rates. Some of the Fed’s own research confirms that. Nearly all of the price hikes came from a few sectors, none of which have anything to do with overheated demand. Take homeowner insurance, where costs have soared, rising 20 percent between 2021 and 2023. That has everything to do with climate-related losses that insurance companies try to make up by hiking rates on other homeowners, and nothing to do with demand. High interest rates don’t touch that.
Likewise auto insurance rates, which increased a staggering 22.2 percent in 2023, according to the March CPI report. Why? Accidents rose during the pandemic, apparently because stressed drivers with cabin fever expressed their frustrations via road rage. More complex systems in cars also increased repair costs. The Fed’s policy can’t fix any of that either. A few outlier studies by economists at regional Fed banks confirm the errors in both the Fed’s analysis and its policies. This March report by two researchers at the San Francisco Fed, titled “What’s Driving Inflation?,” concludes that “current inflation is being driven almost entirely by services such as health care, transportation, accommodations, and housing rents.” People with spare purchasing power are not “demanding” more health care. Rather, the health system, including drug companies, has too much market power to rig prices.
Rather than hiking rates, the Fed should be pressing the Federal Trade Commission for even tougher antitrust enforcement. Some of the recent increase in the transportation sector is driven by idiosyncratic hikes in gasoline prices. For instance, California, with more than 27 million licensed drivers, experiences a more extreme version of the climate-friendly policy of requiring refiners to shift from “winter blend” to “summer blend” gasoline every spring. Because of transition costs, the current price of gas in California is about $5.43 a gallon for regular, or almost two bucks higher than the $3.63 average in the rest of the country, according to AAA. Powell’s high interest rates can’t fix that either. Nor can they solve the housing shortage. This is wonky stuff, but not that wonky. The media should be doing a better job of explaining it, as a counterweight to Powell’s bad instincts; and the economists in the Fed’s employ should be bolder about pointing out Powell’s bad economics.
snip
How the Fed Keeps Getting Inflation Wrong
https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2024-04-12-fed-keeps-getting-inflation-wrong/
President Biden made two catastrophically bad appointments. One was Attorney General Merrick Garland. The other was Fed Chair Powell. Either could literally cost Biden his presidency and the country its democracy—Garland by having slow-walked Trump’s prosecution and Powell by needlessly slowing the economy. The latest inflation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released Wednesday, showed the Consumer Price Index ticking up by 0.4 percent in March, the same as in February, but slightly higher than expected. This in turn set off signals from the Fed that expected rate reductions would have to be postponed, and near-hysterical media commentary. The Dow duly dropped more than a thousand points.
According to one press report after another, the economy was stuck with high inflation; high interest rates would persist; and Biden’s election-year good-news economy would be stuck with a bad-news story. But if you bother to take a close look at the details of the actual price increases by sector, they have nothing to do with the kind of inflation that justifies high interest rates. Some of the Fed’s own research confirms that. Nearly all of the price hikes came from a few sectors, none of which have anything to do with overheated demand. Take homeowner insurance, where costs have soared, rising 20 percent between 2021 and 2023. That has everything to do with climate-related losses that insurance companies try to make up by hiking rates on other homeowners, and nothing to do with demand. High interest rates don’t touch that.
Likewise auto insurance rates, which increased a staggering 22.2 percent in 2023, according to the March CPI report. Why? Accidents rose during the pandemic, apparently because stressed drivers with cabin fever expressed their frustrations via road rage. More complex systems in cars also increased repair costs. The Fed’s policy can’t fix any of that either. A few outlier studies by economists at regional Fed banks confirm the errors in both the Fed’s analysis and its policies. This March report by two researchers at the San Francisco Fed, titled “What’s Driving Inflation?,” concludes that “current inflation is being driven almost entirely by services such as health care, transportation, accommodations, and housing rents.” People with spare purchasing power are not “demanding” more health care. Rather, the health system, including drug companies, has too much market power to rig prices.
Rather than hiking rates, the Fed should be pressing the Federal Trade Commission for even tougher antitrust enforcement. Some of the recent increase in the transportation sector is driven by idiosyncratic hikes in gasoline prices. For instance, California, with more than 27 million licensed drivers, experiences a more extreme version of the climate-friendly policy of requiring refiners to shift from “winter blend” to “summer blend” gasoline every spring. Because of transition costs, the current price of gas in California is about $5.43 a gallon for regular, or almost two bucks higher than the $3.63 average in the rest of the country, according to AAA. Powell’s high interest rates can’t fix that either. Nor can they solve the housing shortage. This is wonky stuff, but not that wonky. The media should be doing a better job of explaining it, as a counterweight to Powell’s bad instincts; and the economists in the Fed’s employ should be bolder about pointing out Powell’s bad economics.
snip
April 13, 2024
Nothing like a potential major regional Middle East War to push Trumpy Thee Traitor's Trial off the front pages.
Not to mention, IF shit really hits the fan, how potentially sustained 8, 10 dollar a gallon (or higher) petrol prices in the US will effect the 2024 election.
Fucking Netanyahu shivving Biden in the back with a broadsword. That motherfucker Bibi has been trying to spin up a war with Iran (with the US as the war hammer) for ages.
April 13, 2024
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-04-12-reformers-narrowly-lose-fisa-reform-patriot-act-2.0/
Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), center, and Chip Roy (R-TX) talk with reporters outside the U.S. Capitol after the House reauthorized Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act on Friday.
The House of Representatives voted on Friday to reauthorize a new version of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 702, with provisions that amount to the greatest expansion of government surveillance powers since the Patriot Act of 2001. The bill, which is intended to retain a tool for intelligence on foreign subjects, would expand the scope of backdoor searches on U.S. persons by allowing the government to target immigrants traveling to the U.S., and seize a broad range of companies’ information on Americans, including data centers, commercial real estate landlords, and other communication equipment operators. Members of Congress, however, will get a special exemption from some of Big Brother’s all-seeing eye because of a provision stating that politicians must be notified when a search query is conducted on them without a warrant, unlike the rest of the public.
Critically, an amendment backed by reformers, which would have added a requirement that government authorities need to obtain a warrant before spying on American citizens, was narrowly defeated when it ended in a 212-212 tie on the House floor. This warrant requirement is the core issue at the heart of a fight that’s been raging for over a decade about government overreach and violation of civil liberties via Section 702. “This failure to protect Americans’ privacy may well have just handed Donald Trump dramatically expanded warrantless surveillance powers, while defeating the single meaningful privacy reform that remained in the debate by the slimmest conceivable margin,” said Sean Vitka, policy director of Demand Progress, in a statement.
This new surveillance apparatus being handed to the government was cleared through by the leadership of both parties after several days of negotiations this week. On Wednesday, a procedural rule paving the way for the floor vote failed to pass because of a variety of concerns about what it included. Leadership changed very little about the substance of the text other than agreeing that it would sunset over a shorter horizon, two years instead of the usual five years. That cosmetic change assured enough members for it to clear a rule vote on Friday; it was sold to the Freedom Caucus members who previously blocked the rule as giving Donald Trump an opportunity to further reform FISA should he get elected president again.
After several amendments were dealt with, with all of those proposed by the status quo–minded House Intelligence Committee passing and those proposed by the pro-reform Judiciary Committee failing, the final bill easily passed, 273-147. It will now go to the Senate, where there could be changes. After the House bill passed, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) put out a statement promising to “do everything in [his] power” to stop its passage. Wyden is just one voice though, and the reauthorization is ultimately likely to make it through and then get signed into law by President Biden. The warrant amendment’s failure begins with several high-ranking members of leadership in both parties, who’d previously backed the reform but then flipped sides on Friday to crush it.
snip
Reformers Narrowly Lose on FISA Reform, Now Get Patriot Act 2.0: A bad day for civil liberties in the House
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-04-12-reformers-narrowly-lose-fisa-reform-patriot-act-2.0/
Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), center, and Chip Roy (R-TX) talk with reporters outside the U.S. Capitol after the House reauthorized Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act on Friday.
The House of Representatives voted on Friday to reauthorize a new version of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 702, with provisions that amount to the greatest expansion of government surveillance powers since the Patriot Act of 2001. The bill, which is intended to retain a tool for intelligence on foreign subjects, would expand the scope of backdoor searches on U.S. persons by allowing the government to target immigrants traveling to the U.S., and seize a broad range of companies’ information on Americans, including data centers, commercial real estate landlords, and other communication equipment operators. Members of Congress, however, will get a special exemption from some of Big Brother’s all-seeing eye because of a provision stating that politicians must be notified when a search query is conducted on them without a warrant, unlike the rest of the public.
Critically, an amendment backed by reformers, which would have added a requirement that government authorities need to obtain a warrant before spying on American citizens, was narrowly defeated when it ended in a 212-212 tie on the House floor. This warrant requirement is the core issue at the heart of a fight that’s been raging for over a decade about government overreach and violation of civil liberties via Section 702. “This failure to protect Americans’ privacy may well have just handed Donald Trump dramatically expanded warrantless surveillance powers, while defeating the single meaningful privacy reform that remained in the debate by the slimmest conceivable margin,” said Sean Vitka, policy director of Demand Progress, in a statement.
This new surveillance apparatus being handed to the government was cleared through by the leadership of both parties after several days of negotiations this week. On Wednesday, a procedural rule paving the way for the floor vote failed to pass because of a variety of concerns about what it included. Leadership changed very little about the substance of the text other than agreeing that it would sunset over a shorter horizon, two years instead of the usual five years. That cosmetic change assured enough members for it to clear a rule vote on Friday; it was sold to the Freedom Caucus members who previously blocked the rule as giving Donald Trump an opportunity to further reform FISA should he get elected president again.
After several amendments were dealt with, with all of those proposed by the status quo–minded House Intelligence Committee passing and those proposed by the pro-reform Judiciary Committee failing, the final bill easily passed, 273-147. It will now go to the Senate, where there could be changes. After the House bill passed, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) put out a statement promising to “do everything in [his] power” to stop its passage. Wyden is just one voice though, and the reauthorization is ultimately likely to make it through and then get signed into law by President Biden. The warrant amendment’s failure begins with several high-ranking members of leadership in both parties, who’d previously backed the reform but then flipped sides on Friday to crush it.
snip
April 13, 2024
Trade unionist made for political opposition whose son became Speaker of the Commons
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lord-hoyle-obituary-veteran-labour-backbencher-and-parliamentary-party-chairman-gw9z5ppxs
https://archive.ph/WlNo1
Hoyle, right, with the former prime minister and Labour leader Harold Wilson during the Warrington by-election, 1981, which he won against an SDP insurgency
During Doug Hoyle’s long career as a Labour MP he experienced significant changes in the party’s fortunes and its policies. A man of the left, he shifted his views only slightly under New Labour and Tony Blair. He became something of a grandee when he was elected by MPs as chairman of the parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) in his last spell in the Commons (1992-97); and having once called for the abolition of the House of Lords, he took a life peerage shortly after his retirement as an MP. His political life centred on Lancashire. He unsuccessfully fought Clitheroe in the 1964 general election and then won Nelson & Colne in October 1974, by 669 votes. In such a marginal seat it was no surprise that he was defeated in the pro-Conservative swing that brought Margaret Thatcher to office in 1979.
Hoyle’s return to the Commons came about in dramatic circumstances. In the Warrington by-election in July 1981, the new Social Democratic Party launched its first parliamentary election campaign. It was largely a breakaway group from the Labour Party. Its well-known candidate was Roy Jenkins, recently returned from having been president of the European Commission. At the time Jenkins — smooth, wealthy, son of a Labour MP, and until recently leader of the Labour right wing — represented all that Hoyle detested. He dismissed Jenkins as “a class traitor” and “a retired pensioner from the EEC”. Although Warrington was one of the safest Labour seats in the country, all the media interest was on how the SDP would do.
Hoyle was ill at ease in what turned out to be something of a media circus. He won the by-election, but the margin was reduced from 10,000 to less than 1,800. Before a large television audience, Jenkins in his concession speech said that it had been the greatest result of his career and congratulated Hoyle on achieving Labour’s lowest vote in the seat for 50 years. For Labour and Hoyle it was a pyrrhic victory. Flanked by the party’s regional agent, Hoyle was persuaded to be brief but denounced the SDP campaign and attacked the press coverage. The by-election proved that the SDP was now an effective political force and a threat to both Labour and Conservative parties. However, at the 1983 general election, Warrington became Warrington North and reverted to being a safe Labour seat with Hoyle as its MP.
Short, stocky and with a trademark moustache, Hoyle was easily recognisable — a colleague compared him to a moustachioed version of the film actor Edward G Robinson. He was usually ready with a quote, often populist, expressed in his soft Lancastrian accent, and would introduce himself as “Doug ’oyle”. He was made for political opposition and indeed most of his career was spent with his party out of office: he was not considered for a frontbench position and did badly when he stood in elections for the shadow cabinet. In 1953 he married Pauline Spencer, who later acted as his secretary. She predeceased him in 1991. They had one son, Lindsay, who also became a Labour MP (elected for Chorley in 1997); he was knighted in the 2018 new year’s honours list and has served as Speaker of the House of Commons since 2019. Lindsay, a more politically centrist figure than Doug, was named by his cricket-loving father after the Australian cricket captain Lindsay Hassett.
snip
Lord Hoyle obituary: Labour backbencher and parliamentary party chairman
Trade unionist made for political opposition whose son became Speaker of the Commons
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lord-hoyle-obituary-veteran-labour-backbencher-and-parliamentary-party-chairman-gw9z5ppxs
https://archive.ph/WlNo1
Hoyle, right, with the former prime minister and Labour leader Harold Wilson during the Warrington by-election, 1981, which he won against an SDP insurgency
During Doug Hoyle’s long career as a Labour MP he experienced significant changes in the party’s fortunes and its policies. A man of the left, he shifted his views only slightly under New Labour and Tony Blair. He became something of a grandee when he was elected by MPs as chairman of the parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) in his last spell in the Commons (1992-97); and having once called for the abolition of the House of Lords, he took a life peerage shortly after his retirement as an MP. His political life centred on Lancashire. He unsuccessfully fought Clitheroe in the 1964 general election and then won Nelson & Colne in October 1974, by 669 votes. In such a marginal seat it was no surprise that he was defeated in the pro-Conservative swing that brought Margaret Thatcher to office in 1979.
Hoyle’s return to the Commons came about in dramatic circumstances. In the Warrington by-election in July 1981, the new Social Democratic Party launched its first parliamentary election campaign. It was largely a breakaway group from the Labour Party. Its well-known candidate was Roy Jenkins, recently returned from having been president of the European Commission. At the time Jenkins — smooth, wealthy, son of a Labour MP, and until recently leader of the Labour right wing — represented all that Hoyle detested. He dismissed Jenkins as “a class traitor” and “a retired pensioner from the EEC”. Although Warrington was one of the safest Labour seats in the country, all the media interest was on how the SDP would do.
Hoyle was ill at ease in what turned out to be something of a media circus. He won the by-election, but the margin was reduced from 10,000 to less than 1,800. Before a large television audience, Jenkins in his concession speech said that it had been the greatest result of his career and congratulated Hoyle on achieving Labour’s lowest vote in the seat for 50 years. For Labour and Hoyle it was a pyrrhic victory. Flanked by the party’s regional agent, Hoyle was persuaded to be brief but denounced the SDP campaign and attacked the press coverage. The by-election proved that the SDP was now an effective political force and a threat to both Labour and Conservative parties. However, at the 1983 general election, Warrington became Warrington North and reverted to being a safe Labour seat with Hoyle as its MP.
Short, stocky and with a trademark moustache, Hoyle was easily recognisable — a colleague compared him to a moustachioed version of the film actor Edward G Robinson. He was usually ready with a quote, often populist, expressed in his soft Lancastrian accent, and would introduce himself as “Doug ’oyle”. He was made for political opposition and indeed most of his career was spent with his party out of office: he was not considered for a frontbench position and did badly when he stood in elections for the shadow cabinet. In 1953 he married Pauline Spencer, who later acted as his secretary. She predeceased him in 1991. They had one son, Lindsay, who also became a Labour MP (elected for Chorley in 1997); he was knighted in the 2018 new year’s honours list and has served as Speaker of the House of Commons since 2019. Lindsay, a more politically centrist figure than Doug, was named by his cricket-loving father after the Australian cricket captain Lindsay Hassett.
snip
April 13, 2024
April 12 (Reuters) - Italian fashion designer Roberto Cavalli, known for his animal-print designs loved by showbusiness stars, has died at the age of 83, his company said. Cavalli, who founded his label in the early 1970s, had been ill for some time. He is survived by his six children and his partner Sandra Bergman Nilsson.
"The Roberto Cavalli company shares condolences with Mr. Cavalli's family, his legacy remains a constant source of inspiration," Sergio Azzolari, chief executive of Roberto Cavalli, said in a post on Instagram. The designer died on Friday at his home in Florence, Italian news agency ANSA reported.
Cavalli, who used bright colours and patchwork effects in his often revealing creations, was an extroverted art lover who wore tinted glasses and smoked a cigar. He expanded into real estate and often spent evenings in his popular "Just Cavalli Cafe," a nightclub in central Milan.
Giorgio Armani said he always had "enormous respect" for Cavalli even though his vision of fashion could not have been more different. "Roberto was a true artist, wild and wonderful in his use of prints, capable of transforming fantasy into seductive clothes," he posted on social media platform X.
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RIP
Italian fashion designer Roberto Cavalli dies aged 83
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italian-fashion-designer-roberto-cavalli-dies-aged-83-2024-04-12/April 12 (Reuters) - Italian fashion designer Roberto Cavalli, known for his animal-print designs loved by showbusiness stars, has died at the age of 83, his company said. Cavalli, who founded his label in the early 1970s, had been ill for some time. He is survived by his six children and his partner Sandra Bergman Nilsson.
"The Roberto Cavalli company shares condolences with Mr. Cavalli's family, his legacy remains a constant source of inspiration," Sergio Azzolari, chief executive of Roberto Cavalli, said in a post on Instagram. The designer died on Friday at his home in Florence, Italian news agency ANSA reported.
Cavalli, who used bright colours and patchwork effects in his often revealing creations, was an extroverted art lover who wore tinted glasses and smoked a cigar. He expanded into real estate and often spent evenings in his popular "Just Cavalli Cafe," a nightclub in central Milan.
Giorgio Armani said he always had "enormous respect" for Cavalli even though his vision of fashion could not have been more different. "Roberto was a true artist, wild and wonderful in his use of prints, capable of transforming fantasy into seductive clothes," he posted on social media platform X.
snip
RIP
April 12, 2024
He’s losing cash reserves and legal gambits, and his eponymous stock – DJT – took an embarrassing tumble this week
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/12/donald-trump-finance-stock-trial
Donald Trump is doing his best Wizard of Oz imitation. These days, Trump is not looking like the “winner” he needs voters to believe him to be. Like the title character in L Frank Baum’s 1900 children’s fantasy and the 1939 movie, there is less there than meets the eye. The 45th president’s lead in the polls evaporates while his cash stash shrinks. His upcoming felony fraud trial in Manhattan looms. For the record, he is zero for three in his bids to adjourn the trial, and lawyers are expensive. At the same time, the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group – his eponymous meme stock, DJT – has plummeted this week. “DJT stock is down again,” announced Barron’s on Thursday. “Trump’s stake in Truth Social parent has taken a hit.” Elsewhere a headline blared: “Trump’s ‘DJT’ stock dives to lowest close since Ron DeSantis dropped out”. Reminder, Trump is a guy whose businesses are no stranger to bankruptcy or allegations of fraud. He leaves wreckage in his wake. The spirit of Trump University remains alive. Like life in Oz, so much in Trump World is illusory.
Meanwhile, Trump’s attempts to bond New York state’s $454m judgment have run into a legal roadblock. The purported bond posted to avoid enforcement pending appeal may be legally insufficient. Letitia James, the state’s attorney general, demands clarification. Whether the paperwork will be sustained will be decided at a court hearing later this month. If the court finds the bond to be insufficient or invalid, James may be able to immediately seek to collect what the state is owed. Financial humiliation set against the backdrop of the campaign is something that Trump can ill afford. For the record, he has already posted a $91m bond to stave off enforcement in the second E Jean Carroll defamation case. His assets are getting tied up, his liquidity ebbs. To him, image is almost everything. At the same time, abortion has re-emerged as a campaign issue, to the horror of the presumptive Republican nominee and his minions. The death of Roe v Wade cost the Republican party its “red wave” in the 2022 midterms. This time, it may lead to another Trump loss and Hakeem Jeffries of Queens wielding the speaker’s gavel in the US House of Representatives.
Hell hath no fury like suburban moms and their daughters. The last thing they need is a thrice-married libertine seventysomething with a penchant for adult film stars and Playboy models telling them how to raise their kids or meddling in their personal lives. When a guy who hawks Bibles for a side-hustle refuses to say whether any of his partners ever had an abortion, it’s time to roll your eyes and guard your wallet. “Such an interesting question,” he replied to Maureen Dowd in 2016, when asked about his days as a swinging single. “So what’s your next question?” For the moment anyway, the party faithful ignore Trump’s pleas to rectify the decision of Arizona’s highest court to allow the criminalization of all abortions except when the life of the mother is endangered. On Wednesday, the Republican-controlled Arizona legislature refused to revoke the 1864 law in the middle of this latest controversy. In case anyone forgot, once upon a time Trump himself had called for the criminalization of abortion. There had to be “some form of punishment” for women who have abortions, Trump said at a 2016 town hall.
Likewise, Kari Lake – a Republican Senate candidate in Arizona, Trump acolyte and frequent guest at Mar-a-Lago – had demanded that her state enact an abortion regime that copied Texas’s draconian law. Not any more. Live by Dobbs, die by Dobbs. Arizona is the new ground zero of this election. This is what states’ rights looks like. Having feasted on Hunter Biden’s depredations, it is once again time for the Republican party to stare into the mirror and cringe. Trump is more Caligula and Commodus than Cyrus, the biblical paradigm of a virtuous heathen king. For all of Joe Biden’s missteps and mistakes, his candidacy is demonstrating unexpected vitality. Then again, he is running against a defeated former president who lost the popular vote in 2016 to Hillary Clinton and again four years later. Trump’s lead is now a matter of fractions. According to Real Clear Politics, he is now ahead by a microscopic two-10ths of 1%. Indeed, Reuters’s latest poll shows the 46th president with a four-point lead up from a single percentage point a month ago. Said differently, Trump’s campaign is in retrograde. Joe Biden is in the hunt and Donald Trump is looking like the old man behind the curtain. Substitute Stormy Daniels for Dorothy and the only things missing from this tableau are Toto, the little dog, ruby slippers and Kansas.
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For all his bombast, Trump is plummeting - financially, legally and politically
He’s losing cash reserves and legal gambits, and his eponymous stock – DJT – took an embarrassing tumble this week
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/12/donald-trump-finance-stock-trial
Donald Trump is doing his best Wizard of Oz imitation. These days, Trump is not looking like the “winner” he needs voters to believe him to be. Like the title character in L Frank Baum’s 1900 children’s fantasy and the 1939 movie, there is less there than meets the eye. The 45th president’s lead in the polls evaporates while his cash stash shrinks. His upcoming felony fraud trial in Manhattan looms. For the record, he is zero for three in his bids to adjourn the trial, and lawyers are expensive. At the same time, the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group – his eponymous meme stock, DJT – has plummeted this week. “DJT stock is down again,” announced Barron’s on Thursday. “Trump’s stake in Truth Social parent has taken a hit.” Elsewhere a headline blared: “Trump’s ‘DJT’ stock dives to lowest close since Ron DeSantis dropped out”. Reminder, Trump is a guy whose businesses are no stranger to bankruptcy or allegations of fraud. He leaves wreckage in his wake. The spirit of Trump University remains alive. Like life in Oz, so much in Trump World is illusory.
Meanwhile, Trump’s attempts to bond New York state’s $454m judgment have run into a legal roadblock. The purported bond posted to avoid enforcement pending appeal may be legally insufficient. Letitia James, the state’s attorney general, demands clarification. Whether the paperwork will be sustained will be decided at a court hearing later this month. If the court finds the bond to be insufficient or invalid, James may be able to immediately seek to collect what the state is owed. Financial humiliation set against the backdrop of the campaign is something that Trump can ill afford. For the record, he has already posted a $91m bond to stave off enforcement in the second E Jean Carroll defamation case. His assets are getting tied up, his liquidity ebbs. To him, image is almost everything. At the same time, abortion has re-emerged as a campaign issue, to the horror of the presumptive Republican nominee and his minions. The death of Roe v Wade cost the Republican party its “red wave” in the 2022 midterms. This time, it may lead to another Trump loss and Hakeem Jeffries of Queens wielding the speaker’s gavel in the US House of Representatives.
Hell hath no fury like suburban moms and their daughters. The last thing they need is a thrice-married libertine seventysomething with a penchant for adult film stars and Playboy models telling them how to raise their kids or meddling in their personal lives. When a guy who hawks Bibles for a side-hustle refuses to say whether any of his partners ever had an abortion, it’s time to roll your eyes and guard your wallet. “Such an interesting question,” he replied to Maureen Dowd in 2016, when asked about his days as a swinging single. “So what’s your next question?” For the moment anyway, the party faithful ignore Trump’s pleas to rectify the decision of Arizona’s highest court to allow the criminalization of all abortions except when the life of the mother is endangered. On Wednesday, the Republican-controlled Arizona legislature refused to revoke the 1864 law in the middle of this latest controversy. In case anyone forgot, once upon a time Trump himself had called for the criminalization of abortion. There had to be “some form of punishment” for women who have abortions, Trump said at a 2016 town hall.
Likewise, Kari Lake – a Republican Senate candidate in Arizona, Trump acolyte and frequent guest at Mar-a-Lago – had demanded that her state enact an abortion regime that copied Texas’s draconian law. Not any more. Live by Dobbs, die by Dobbs. Arizona is the new ground zero of this election. This is what states’ rights looks like. Having feasted on Hunter Biden’s depredations, it is once again time for the Republican party to stare into the mirror and cringe. Trump is more Caligula and Commodus than Cyrus, the biblical paradigm of a virtuous heathen king. For all of Joe Biden’s missteps and mistakes, his candidacy is demonstrating unexpected vitality. Then again, he is running against a defeated former president who lost the popular vote in 2016 to Hillary Clinton and again four years later. Trump’s lead is now a matter of fractions. According to Real Clear Politics, he is now ahead by a microscopic two-10ths of 1%. Indeed, Reuters’s latest poll shows the 46th president with a four-point lead up from a single percentage point a month ago. Said differently, Trump’s campaign is in retrograde. Joe Biden is in the hunt and Donald Trump is looking like the old man behind the curtain. Substitute Stormy Daniels for Dorothy and the only things missing from this tableau are Toto, the little dog, ruby slippers and Kansas.
snip
April 12, 2024
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/11/tim-kaine-interview-biden-israel-netanyahu
Senator Tim Kaine, a former vice-presidential nominee and leading foreign policy voice in the Democratic party, has said Joe Biden now understands that Benjamin Netanyahu “played” him during the early months of the war in Gaza but “that ain’t going to happen any more”. In an interview with the Guardian on Tuesday, Kaine accused the prime minister of making Israel “dramatically less safe” and hurting its longstanding relationship with the US, and said the US president had come to realise the limits of his influence.
The Democratic senator for Virginia is best known nationally as Hillary Clinton’s running mate in the 2016 presidential election, a race they lost to Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence. The Biden ally is a member of the Senate foreign relations and armed services committees. Kaine has repeatedly reiterated his backing for Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas following the terrorist attack six months ago that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took about 250 people hostage. But he has joined other Democrats in expressing growing consternation over a hardline military response that has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry, and spurred a looming famine.
Biden embraced Netanyahu early in the conflict but had little to show for it as Israel continued to rain bombs on Gaza, causing mass displacement, threats of famine and disease and, last week, the deaths of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers. Protesters have condemned Biden for miscalculating the extent of his sway over Netanyahu. Kaine reflected: “I do believe he felt like that relationship and the true compassion that he had for Israel over his career would lead him to be listened to by the Israeli leadership. I think he is enormously frustrated that he’s been trying to give advice, not like a foe would give it – ‘I think this is better for you if you listen to me. I’m not just saying this is better for me; I’m saying this will be better for you.’”
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The senator, who last December raised concerns over the Biden administration’s decision to transfer weapons to Israel without congressional oversight, added: “I think President Biden has turned the corner and realised he’s not going to be able, through the force of the relationship, to convince Benjamin Netanyahu to be anything other than who he is.” Biden has become increasingly critical as the war drags on and the civilian death toll mounts, including thousands of children. In an interview recorded last week and broadcast on Tuesday on Univision, the president said of Netanyahu: “I think what he’s doing is a mistake. I don’t agree with his approach.”
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Tim Kaine: Biden knows Netanyahu 'played' him in early months of Gaza war
Senator and leading foreign policy voice in Democratic party tells the Guardian Biden has come to realise the limits of his influencehttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/11/tim-kaine-interview-biden-israel-netanyahu
Senator Tim Kaine, a former vice-presidential nominee and leading foreign policy voice in the Democratic party, has said Joe Biden now understands that Benjamin Netanyahu “played” him during the early months of the war in Gaza but “that ain’t going to happen any more”. In an interview with the Guardian on Tuesday, Kaine accused the prime minister of making Israel “dramatically less safe” and hurting its longstanding relationship with the US, and said the US president had come to realise the limits of his influence.
The Democratic senator for Virginia is best known nationally as Hillary Clinton’s running mate in the 2016 presidential election, a race they lost to Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence. The Biden ally is a member of the Senate foreign relations and armed services committees. Kaine has repeatedly reiterated his backing for Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas following the terrorist attack six months ago that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took about 250 people hostage. But he has joined other Democrats in expressing growing consternation over a hardline military response that has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry, and spurred a looming famine.
Biden embraced Netanyahu early in the conflict but had little to show for it as Israel continued to rain bombs on Gaza, causing mass displacement, threats of famine and disease and, last week, the deaths of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers. Protesters have condemned Biden for miscalculating the extent of his sway over Netanyahu. Kaine reflected: “I do believe he felt like that relationship and the true compassion that he had for Israel over his career would lead him to be listened to by the Israeli leadership. I think he is enormously frustrated that he’s been trying to give advice, not like a foe would give it – ‘I think this is better for you if you listen to me. I’m not just saying this is better for me; I’m saying this will be better for you.’”
snip
The senator, who last December raised concerns over the Biden administration’s decision to transfer weapons to Israel without congressional oversight, added: “I think President Biden has turned the corner and realised he’s not going to be able, through the force of the relationship, to convince Benjamin Netanyahu to be anything other than who he is.” Biden has become increasingly critical as the war drags on and the civilian death toll mounts, including thousands of children. In an interview recorded last week and broadcast on Tuesday on Univision, the president said of Netanyahu: “I think what he’s doing is a mistake. I don’t agree with his approach.”
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