Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the population of Florida to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups but results for groups with a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed.

This sample includes 603 interviews among landline respondents and 400 interviews among cell phone respondents. Respondents were asked questions about whether they are registered to vote, their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign. Based on the answers to those questions, 788 respondents were classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 33% described themselves as Democrats, 32% described themselves as Republicans and 35% described themselves as independents or members of another party. For the sample of registered voters, 38% said they were registered as Democrats, 37% registered as Republicans, 23% registered with no party and 2% with another party

Currently, Donald Trump has a 46-42% lead (which is almost identical to the July poll) over Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race, while 4% support third party candidates, and 8% are undecided. There are four facets to Donald Trump's lead: (1) Partisan - Republican voters favor Trump by a 76-14% margin, and this solid support is augmented with 53-34% support from white Independents; (2) Geographic - Florida's geographic regions are fairly predictable in their partisan voting patterns, and in this poll, overall geographic patterns of support are similar to those of 2012, with one exception: Mitt Romney only carried Central Florida 50-49%, while Trump has a 46-40% lead over Clinton in this crucial region (also known as “the I-4 corridor”) of the state; (3) Ethnic - While polls have shown that Trump is weak among Hispanic voters, the reality is more complicated in Florida, where the partisan breakdown of likely Hispanic voters is 39-31% Democratic/Republican (30% are not affiliated with the two major parties). Those of Hispanic origin in South Florida (particularly Miami-Dade) are historically Republican, while the growing Hispanic population in Central Florida is Democratic, but not unanimously nor consistently so. In this poll, Clinton has a narrow 44-42% lead over Trump among this demographic, largely due to Donald Trump’s having a 74-11% lead among Hispanic Republicans; and (4) Gender – there is currently a nine-point gender gap, as men favor Trump 48-39%, while women are tied 44-44%.
What will keep the race in Florida competitive is that Hillary Clinton’s Democratic voter base is solidly behind her as well, with an 81-6% lead among blacks, a 68-17% lead among Democrats (66-23% among white Democrats), and a 55-35% lead in South Florida, which voted 62-37% for Obama in 2012. However, she has to improve upon her showing among Central Florida voters, white Independents, women, and Hispanics if she wants to carry the state in November.

Many of the lessons I’ve learned in business are applicable to our current situation. The most important lesson is this—Stand behind your word, and make sure your word stands up. People who have done business with me will tell you that I never say something unless I mean it.

I don’t make promises I can’t keep. I don’t make threats without following through. Don’t ever make the mistake of thinking you can bully me. My business partners and employees know that my word is as good as any contract—and that better go for the other side’s word as well.

I stand behind my commitments, and our commitments as a nation.
I stand—without question—behind the Constitution at home, and I stand, without question, behind our allies abroad.

No friendly country, and no allied leader, should question our ironclad support again.
No enemy, and no enemy leader, should misinterpret our resolve to fight to the death—their death.

We need a leader who is going to restore the respect this country enjoyed in the past. I’m criticized for not issuing elaborate, detailed policy statements. What good are detailed plans if your country doesn’t have the credibility to carry them out—but I issue them anyway.

The president is the spokesperson for democracy and liberty. Isn’t it time we brought back the pomp and circumstance, and the sense of awe for that office that we all once held?

That means everyone working in the administration should look and act professionally at all times—especially the president. The way you dress and the way you act is an important way of showing respect for the people you are representing and the people you are dealing with. Impressions matter.