2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCNN poll giving Trump a lead is skewed. 32 % Republicans. 28 % Democrats in the poll sample
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/05/rel13a.-.2016.post-labor.day.pdfpage 21
LAS14
(13,783 posts)SCliberal91294
(170 posts)Gracias
factfinder_77
(841 posts)A total of 1,001 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Among the entire sample, 28% described themselves as Democrats, 32% described themselves as Republicans, and 40% described themselves as independents or members of another party.
All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage.
Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "NA".
And according to the poll, Trump is leading the independent vote by 20 %..48 % to 28 %.
misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)Once the GE was on its way they have not let up at all.
The TV Newz is unwatchable
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)We don't unskew polls
uponit7771
(90,367 posts)SCliberal91294
(170 posts)A Republican pollster came on and said the sampling was off. He said that the labor day weekend caused higher educated voters to not be sampled.
factfinder_77
(841 posts)0rganism
(23,975 posts)pollsters can easily adjust for uneven poll sampling by applying weights derived from turnout models. whoever "adjusted" the CNN poll had an agenda.
factfinder_77
(841 posts)for the political round table debates
and this one says it all...
The Republican nominee is rebounding from a summer of repeated stumbles that threatened to undermine his candidacy, underscoring his ability to claw his way back and stay competitive despite controversies that would sink any other politician.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/06/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-2016/index.html
0rganism
(23,975 posts)but look on the up-side: as long as the polls are interpreted to show him not getting blown out, he'll stay in the race instead of dropping out and letting the RNC appoint someone halfway competent