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Bernardo de La Paz

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Member since: Fri Jul 16, 2004, 11:36 PM
Number of posts: 31,625

About Me

Canadian who lived for many years in Northern California and left a bit of my heart there.

Journal Archives

Deaths lag. Spreading has not stopped. Shutdown is not total. Many are not doing it.

US case load is slowing down a bit. Doubling every 3.5 days (guesstimate) instead of every 2.5 like it was for a week. But the death rate increase is not yet. It is still a straight line on logarithmic (log) charts, meaning continued exponential growth.

But deaths lag. It takes 1 to 14 days for symptoms to appear. Then after that it takes something like 10 days for the average death to occur (not sure of exact figure). Some people don't go easily and succumb after fighting it in ICU for 3 weeks.

I expect the peak infection rate in NYC in a day or two or three. (I don't really know, of course, ... nobody knows for sure). But the death rate will continue to grow for some time, piling up deaths. Peak in NY state might be several days later. Peak infection rate country-wide will be at least a week from now and perhaps two or more.

But the death rate peak will be 10 days or two weeks later.

Go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ and click the logarithmic option on the Italy Cases and Deaths charts. To my eye, the case rate began flattening around March 16. But the death rate didn't budge from a straight line until about March 29, which is almost 2 weeks later.

The doctors and epidemiologists know that's how it works. That's why flattening the curve is so important, because the peak approaches and comes down on areas like a hammer.

They told tRump, many times over.

But, because his re-election is involved, he refused to believe them and tried to tweet it away.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:12 AM (0 replies)

It's a mistake to call it tRump virus. Gives a false talking point for Rs to seize on.

It's not his virus. He didn't create it. If you call it his virus then all the oxygen gets sucked up defending an indefensible point.

But it absolutely is his Depression because it happened on his watch AND he was so proud of "his" economy and "his" stock market (artificially pumped up by tax-payer paid for corporate tax cuts that led to stock buybacks).

The virus kills. tRump makes it kill more and faster. tRump makes it the Trump Disaster and the Trump Depression.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Apr 3, 2020, 08:17 PM (1 replies)

Ya know that RW talking point: "more people die of flu"? Now this: (and next up, heart disease)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/01/coronavirus-kills-1-000-single-day-u-s-double-flu/5100905002/ (written April 1).

More than 1,000 in US die in a single day from coronavirus, doubling the worst daily death toll of the flu

Remember this thing is only beginning. People take up to three weeks to die a horrible death after first showing symptoms.

Some researchers say the daily death toll could more than double to 2,200 or more by mid-April. That figure would eclipse heart disease, the nation's No. 1 killer with about 1,772 deaths per day, according to the CDC.

Expect it to happen tomorrow or the day after.

Today 1,300 deaths in USA as of this writing.

Deaths are doubling every 3 (three) days.

The peak is at least twelve days away, probably more. Assume slower doubling, every 4 days. That is three doubles or 8x the deaths. 1,300 x 8 = 10,400.

Over 10,000 deaths.

EVERY DAY for day on day, say a week at the peak.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Apr 3, 2020, 07:20 PM (6 replies)

Have to let that feeling go. Accept that you are powerless over some things and it is easier.

If you are doing the things that you can control or affect, then it is easier to let the powerless things go. You don't have to be active that instant, but if you have plans in motion or a routine or are planning, then you can accept powerlessness over some things more easily.

It's not easy, initially, but the more you practice it the easier it becomes.

Don't fight it in your mind. That is what makes the feeling of powerlessness overwhelming. Metaphorically in you mind open windows and let the breeze gently blow it away. When it comes back, as it will, say to yourself "oh, you again", and let it go. Then get back to either relaxing or doing or studying (the virus or something else you are interested in for the future). Being forward-looking helps.

Do what you can, accept what you can't do, and seek the wisdom to tell the two apart.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Wed Apr 1, 2020, 04:44 PM (0 replies)

It fits with projections from IHME of peak nationally of deaths, around April 15.

Key phrase: "The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures."


Projecting US peak deaths around April 15 at about 2300 per day in range of 1200 to 5000 per day.
Projecting 81,000 US deaths in range of 40K to 160K.

IHME = Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, at University of Washington

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Mar 27, 2020, 04:41 PM (0 replies)

No flood of tweets will cover fact US is failing worst of all countries. Cases doubling faster in US

Cases are doubling about every 2 1/2 days. No country in the world is doing worse.

It's not from a lack of wealth or guns or military might or adulation of football players.

It's from incompetence at the very top.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Tue Mar 24, 2020, 08:46 AM (1 replies)

No you're not weird. It's real. It's here. Do what you can, don't worry bout what you can't do

Personally, I'm not struggling with the reality of this.

I accepted it long ago (about 6 weeks ago), and made some preparations a couple of weeks ago before self-isolating to achieve social distancing. I still walk the dog with a friend some days, but we don't face each other as we talk and walk.

I monitor the course of the statistics, perhaps too frequently, multiple times a day, and I'm not surprised.

The most worrying thing is tRump, but I can't do a thing about him, so I don't worry about him, even as I loathe and despise him, avoiding hot hate.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat Mar 21, 2020, 05:55 PM (0 replies)

Still just a "Democrat{ic} Media hoax"?

First their position was "just 15 cases. In a few days it will be 2 or 3 and then it will magically disappear".

That switched to "We did all we needed to do, banned Chinese flights."

Then it was "just an ordinary flu, 10 dead versus 20,000 flu deaths".

A little later it was "just 10 dead besides all those in the nursing homes in Washington state".

That became a Public Relations exercise to tweet it away and stage photo ops where he could self-congratulate and pretend to be doing something while denying it was a problem.

Then the "It's Democrat{ic} Media hoax panic to crash the markets to get rid of Trump because impeachment failed" ploy.

Then it was named with a racist origin name (by naming after the originating area) or the "foreign flu" as if being from out of the country made it impotent.

Then it was "I know! We can break SSI and Medicare by defunding via a payroll tax holiday."

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Tue Mar 17, 2020, 07:59 PM (0 replies)

Two things work (US has neither): 1) Early strenuous reaction and 2) Great healthcare system.

USA has great healthcare but a lousy healthcare system because only the upper economic classes can afford that healthcare.

China was late reacting after first killing whistleblower Doctor Li (Li Wenliang, remember his name). When they finally reacted they had to weld apartment doors shut.

South Korea reacted quickly and did not have to resort total totalitarian responses.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Mon Mar 16, 2020, 08:58 AM (1 replies)

Single-payer nothing to do with it. SKorea& China have single payer & they've got a lid on Covid-19

South Korea has a universal healthcare system.[236] It has the world's second best healthcare system.[237]

Any kind of universal health care, whether single payer or universal insurance, would help a lot because people wouldn't avoid treatment or diagnosis.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Mon Mar 16, 2020, 08:25 AM (2 replies)
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