The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

[safeinOhio]

Source: Marketwatch.com

For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.
And it’s a lot closer than you may think.
According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.
Put that in your calendar.

Read more: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-bombshell-age-of-america-about-to-end-2011-04-25

[xchrom]

1. recommend

[AllTooEasy]

56. Bullshit; China's per capita GDP is way behind the US; plus the US military...

...could easily blow China away and just take their wealth. See this link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Two interesting points from this link:

a) The US wasn't #1 anyway; but #9
b) The top 8 countries ALL HAVE UNIVERSAL HEATHCARE.

The argument that Universal Healthcare will backrupt the US is complete bullshit.

[johnroshan]

60. "plus the US military could easily blow China away and just take their wealth."

What a nice plan you've got there!

[AllTooEasy]

68. I don't want to see it done. That would be immorally insane!!!

[SemperEadem]

63. hardly

[LAGC]

2. Once there was the American Dream...

Then we all woke up.

[hlthe2b]

3. Brother, can you spare a renminbi (yi yuan)?

sigh....

[dipsydoodle]

4. Did you mean

Brother Can You Spare A Renminbi ? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3KoJj4dz2I

[hlthe2b]

6. Sure did... Hey it's only 4 AM here in my defense...

;) Thanks for the catch...

[dipsydoodle]

8. PST then I guess

Midday here , sunny , hot and a public/bank holiday too !

:hi:

[hlthe2b]

9. Yup...

Out on west coast for work and up all night to finish a presentation before catching the "red eye" (literally) to go home to Colorado late tonight. Holiday, eh? Aren't you supposed to be all "a flutter" re: Royal wedding (or something)? ;)

[dipsydoodle]

10. Yes - another holiday Friday for "The Wedding"

and after the weekend Monday too for May Day. As I'm retired and any residual work I do I do from home anyway all days of the week are the same to me so I don't really notice public holidays - they just are.

The Royal Family do remain very popular here and despite what you may read in some reports I doubt that will change for some considerable period of time.

No - I'm not all a flutter but wish them well anyway. :rofl:

[No Elephants]

5. Maybe nobody noticed 'cause many of us believe that the U.S. has for some time been on track to

beome a third world nation.

The idea that we are still in the “Age of America" seems like a sick joke.

[ejpoeta]

7. well as long as they can keep people thinking we are still in it the better.

people will not be happy and they can't get away with all the bs they do. We seem to chant 'we're number 1' more than ever. I think part of that is to assure ourselves it's true. Wave the flag around and keep telling everyone how awesome and great we are... better than anyone else. Meanwhile everyone else is moving on and doing things to make themselves better. that is how we will end up left behind. I don't think we are destined for third world status... if people would actually wake up and pay attention.

[madlefty]

11. if people would actually wake up and pay attention

and stop screaming SOCIALISM! SOCIALISM!

[sasquuatch55]

12. The wordplay is priceless!

the U.S. economy will beovertaken

[seafan]

13. The story in a nutshell.

IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end


From Brett Arends at WSJ's MarketWatch:


April 25, 2011

.....

Victor Cha, senior advisor on Asian affairs at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me China’s neighbors in Asia are already waking up to the dangers. “The region is overwhelmingly looking to the U.S. in a way that it hasn’t done in the past,” he said. “They see the U.S. as a counterweight to China. They also see American hegemony over the last half century as fairly benign. In China they see the rise of an economic power that is not benevolent, that can be predatory. They don’t see it as a benign hegemony.”

The rise of China, and the relative decline of America, is the biggest story of our time. You can see its implications everywhere, from shuttered factories in the Midwest to soaring costs of oil and other commodities. Last fall, when I attended a conference in London about agricultural investment, I was struck by the number of people there who told stories about Chinese interests snapping up farmland and food stuff supplies — from South America to China and elsewhere.

This is the result of decades during which China has successfully pursued economic policies aimed at national expansion and power, while the U.S. has embraced either free trade or, for want of a better term, economic appeasement.

“There are two systems in collision,” said Ralph Gomory, research professor at NYU’s Stern business school. “They have a state-guided form of capitalism, and we have a much freer former of capitalism.” What we have seen, he said, is “a massive shift in capability from the U.S. to China. What we have done is traded jobs for profit. The jobs have moved to China. The capability erodes in the US and grows in China. That’s very destructive. That is a big reason why the U.S. is becoming more and more polarized between a small, very rich class and an eroding middle class. The people who get the profits are very different from the people who lost the wages.”

The next chapter of the story is just beginning.

.....

In draining away our jobs from our once thriving US, our strength has drastically weakened, while China's has climbed rapidly, as their people went to work at jobs we used to have. Our leadership has allowed this, against the people's will.


And it all happened in the name of glorious, profit-worshiping greed. And now, greed has won. For China. And we are left with nothing.


Our leadership over the past 30 years has failed us.

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. It's bizarre that you think a GDP per capita more than 4 times China's is "nothing"

I'd ask you to think whether 'greed' is something you yourself may be guilty of, if you think only extreme wealth is worth having.

[Romulox]

29. You can hardly advocate for international economic competition, and then call the winners

"greedy"; it's an internally inconsistent position.

[Hawkowl]

57. Per Capita is FUCKING RETARDED

For example. If the population of the US was ONE person, would that be fantastic with a $12 Trillion GDP? Ok, so the US doesn't have a population of one, but say 400 families accrue 80% of the GDP. That is not so ridiculous. The point being that per capita is a mythical measurement of income distribution. Specifically it is a mean and gives no indication of the DISTRIBUTION of income. Without taking into an account the true income distribution, i.e; the percentage of those in poverty vs. the percentage of obscenely wealthy, per capita is a bullshit measurement used to obscure the raping of the US by the corrupt plutocrats.

[muriel_volestrangler]

62. It's better than taking the entire GDP of a country, though, isn't it?

It's not as if the typical Chinese person has a standard of living anywhere near as good as the typical American, is it? Going by the UN figures, China is even more unequal than the USA. So the typical Chinese citizen is more than 4 times poorer than the typical American.

So my point still stands - that saying the GDP of the whole of the USA is lower than the GDP of the whole of China is not that meaningful, and to say it means the US is left with 'nothing' is indicative of a greedy mentality, when you want more money and power than another group, rather than just a sufficient standard of living for yourself.

By the way, calling something 'retarded' tends to get deleted on DU, since it's using a mental disability as an insult. Shouting it in capitals will only make it more likely to get deleted.

[JDPriestly]

33. It is nice that Asia is "looking toward" us. How flattering.

But they need to buy more of our products. Trade is one way, and that cannot work. They export, and we import. We can't be number one when we have dwindling and next to no industrial capacity compared to China.

I do not believe that Asia is looking toward us at all. They are buying cheap Chinese goods just like everybody else. Haven't they ever heard about those sales where you get a great offer and then when you get in the store you learn that the item has been sold out? That is where we are on free trade. Our leaders promised us a good deal and then forgot and sold out.

[orangeapple]

41. clarification

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41349653/ns/business-us_business/

"America remains by far the No. 1 manufacturing country. It out-produces No. 2 China by more than 40 percent. U.S. manufacturers cranked out nearly $1.7 trillion in goods in 2009, according to the United Nations.
The story of American factories essentially boils down to this: They've managed to make more goods with fewer workers."

Like farm work 100 years, manufacturing employment worldwide is dwindling, but production is increasing.


"But they need to buy more of our products. Trade is one way, and that cannot work. They export, and we import."

Our problem with China is they we buy their products and they sell us debt. We need to get out of the debt selling business.

The distinction in the IMF study is that they're anticipating continued depreciation of the dollar and an appreciation of the yuan. If we don't alter our destructive policies (trillions in government, billions of which are funded by the Fed 'printing money'), they'll be correct.

[whathappened]

64. this mite of slipped your mind

remember when bush jr declared all fast food jobs will be counted as manufacturing jobs , here on out

[orangeapple]

66. You should have read past the headline

"As first reported by The New York Times, the fast food issue is taken up on page 73 of the lengthy report in a special box headlined "What is manufacturing?"

"The definition of a manufactured product," the box reads, "is not straightforward."

"When a fast-food restaurant sells a hamburger, for example, is it providing a 'service' or is it combining inputs to 'manufacture' a product?" it asks.

Manufacturing is defined by the Census Bureau as work involving employees who are "engaged in the mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials, substances, or components into new products."

But, the president's report notes, even the Census Bureau has acknowledged that its definition "can be somewhat blurry," with bakeries, candy stores, custom tailors and tire retreading services considered manufacturing.

"Mixing water and concentrate to produce soft drinks is classified as manufacturing," the president's report reads. "However, if that activity is performed at a snack bar, it is considered a service."

The report does not recommend that burger-flippers be counted alongside factory workers.

Instead, it concludes that the fuzziness of the manufacturing definition is problematic, because policies - like, for example, a tax credit for manufacturers - may miss their target if the definition is overly broad or narrow."


People remember the misleading soundbite and completely missed the point (tailoring tax policy on 'fuzzy' definitions of work can have unintended consequences).
The point remains, the U.S. produces more value in manufactured goods than ever in its history, it just does so with more robots (capital investment) and fewer people.
When the Chinese worker finally has 1/4 of the capital goods at his disposal as an American worker their economy should surpass ours in size on the simple math that their population is 4 times as large.
The debasement of the dollar is going to accelerate this passing of the torch because Bernanke and Co. are destroying our purchasing power and thereby reducing the net return on capital investment in the U.S. vs China.

[JDPriestly]

67. The problem is the export of jobs. And don't ascribe the lack of jobs to

automation. Whole factories were simply dismantled and moved to China and Mexico. I know this because one of my nephews drove trucks full of factory equipment -- destination China and Mexico. An example is the Maytag factory in Newton, Iowa which was transferred to a country in which the lack of worker safety regulations and lower wages meant bigger profits and paychecks for the CEOs.

The export of jobs and the resulting reduction in wages and incomes of ordinary Americans harms our country for many reasons. Three of the major ones are lost tax revenue, lost purchasing power and increased income disparity (and its divisive effect on social morality and political freedom).

Let's look at our tax scheme. Our government's revenues are derived to a great extent from income taxes. We have seen that the big corporations from GE to Exxon don't pay income taxes. Capital gains taxes are next to nil. And when ordinary Americans can't get jobs or can't get jobs that pay high salaries, their incomes decline. There is just too little income subject to taxes (that can be easily collected) to provide for the government services we need -- including the military. And of course when people can't get jobs, the demand for government services rises.

Second, as Americans' paychecks shrink, so does their purchasing power. The rows of empty storefronts reflect the shrinking wallets of Americans. That means fewer jobs yet.

Finally, as we saw in Wisconsin, when wages are pushed lower and lower, people can't pay their mortgages, educate their children, or participate with pride in their communities. Vacations and entertainment become less possible. The Sunday offering and therefore church attendance is sacrificed. Communities fall apart. (Look at Detroit.) And the individuals in them become angry. History shows us that the changes that are occurring could spell disaster for our freedom and democracy, for our system of government.

So, numbers on production are only that: numbers. I try to buy American, but on my Social Security income, I can't afford the prices. It's kind of hard to automate putting in a zipper. So, the zipper input is done in China. The prices on imported items need to be raised to insure that those produced in the US are competitive. That's why I favor either import taxes or increased sales taxes.

We need to get realistic about the damage that the free trade mania has caused our society. It was a big mistake and it's about time we just tell the emperors of free trade that they are naked and should be ashamed of themselves.

[orangeapple]

69. a few things

"The problem is the export of jobs. And don't ascribe the lack of jobs to automation."

Even China is losing manufacturing jobs. Look it up:
"The percentage of people employed in manufacturing in the U.S. has declined steadily since the 1960s, from 25% then to less than 10% today. And since perhaps half of the workers in a typical manufacturing firm are involved in service-type jobs, such as design, distribution and financial planning, the true share of workers actually making products is only about 5%. Even China is losing manufacturing jobs - between 1995 and 2002, China lost 15 million manufacturing jobs, compared with just 2 million in the U.S."

The trend hasn't changed, check for yourself. Just like the farm jobs, they're not coming back as a major component of any advanced economy.

Tariffs will only make it worse for Americans, as you noted, "I try to buy American, but on my Social Security income, I can't afford the prices." Tariffs will impoverish you further than the government's annual manipulation of the COLA. We can't wall ourselves off from the world and continue improving our standard of living. In fact, the previous attempt aggravated the Great Depression by smashing world trade and the productivity bonus of comparative advantages.


"We need to get realistic about the damage that the free trade mania has caused our society."

I disagree with you. Free trade hasn't hurt us. What has hurt us is that instead of the Chinese and other nations using the USD we send them for goods to purchase US made goods or invest in U.S. capital (improving the productivity of our workers, raising them income), they've lent that money to our government which has spent it on fostering consumption (or in the case of the military - destruction). Free trade isn't the basis of the problem, a government spending beyond its means is. You can be agnostic on whether the government spends too much or taxes too little, but must be clear on the fact that Cheney was wrong, and federal deficits DO matter.
We can't fault the Chinese for using the USD we send them to buy Treasuries. If we didn't issue the Treasuries in the first place the money would have to be spent on American consumer goods, or invested in American capital goods (I suppose they could stick it under Mao's mattress, but that would just increase our purchasing power by making the dollar more scarce). Instead they're 'investing' in Uncle Sam's grip on the taxpayer.
Only we can end that.
We must end that.

[JDPriestly]

72. I disagree with you.

We have to return to producing and exporting industrial goods and imposing tariffs on imports. That is the only way that we can build tax revenue. We have an aging population that cannot work.

Our government spends too much money on war. We have far too many overseas bases. But most of our domestic spending cannot be avoided. This is particularly true of programs like Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security. The alternative to spending on those programs is simply allowing the weakest and oldest and least employable among us to die.

Talk of cutting government spending sounds great. It isn't realistic. We need instead to increase government revenue.

You are ignoring the enormous social upheaval that results when huge disparities in income and class differences divide a population.

I have lived in several European countries. Here in the US, we have a very weak social safety net compared to other countries. Our tax rates are lower. We need to work together much more. Germany uses taxation to promote the industry in their country. That is the smart thing to do. It unites a country.

The lack of good jobs is an extremely serious threat not only to our economy but to our political system. And it is all due to free trade. It has changed our country for the worse, caused widespread unemployment, lowered pay rates and increased the disparity in wealth between the rich and poor.

The Chinese buy our treasuries with our money because we don't produce goods that they or anyone else wants to buy. We have to end the outsourcing and importing. We still have the ability to make things, but because young people are not learning how to make things or think mechanically, we could lose that ability. The trade agreements will destroy our country if we don't end them.

Our trade agreements don't just harm our economy. They usurp the authority of our government. NAFTA is a good example of this. The courts that enforce NAFTA regulations can overrule decisions by our local governments. That is a threat to our sovereignty as a nation. Sooner or later, some trade court decision will conflict with our Constitution. And then, hopefully a court will decide that the Constitution prevails and the trade court's ruling cannot stand. I would like to see that happen, and I think it will eventually happen.

[rhett o rick]

42. China has to look toward us. Our middle class still has a lot of money collectively.

China is a capitalist country. They need us as consumers. The people in China are destitute and cant buy their products. It is an interesting "endgame" of capitalism. When you steal all the money of the lower class, there is nothing left to steal.

[raccoon]

14. Alas, Babylon. nt

[aquart]

16. And what age will it be when that China bubble bursts?

I'm impressed that we've finally decided the IMF knows something. Does it know that you cannot build a consumer economy on cheap labor wages?

[Javaman]

19. When their bubble bursts...

so will India's.

It won't be pretty.

I'm thinking at that point, Upper Volta will be the world power.

[aquart]

20. I know nothing about India. Think they're alike?

[Javaman]

21. Not so much a like as all that part of the worlds economy is

very closely intertwined.

And since India's infrastructure is growing at the same rate as China's economy, if china were to burst, India and that whole region would follow suite.

[AtheistCrusader]

25. Not before we stop subsidizing them with massive interest payments.

[pampango]

17. The size of your GDP isn't everything. It isn't even that big a deal. Who cares if we're #1?

GDP per capita and how equitable the distribution is within the population are what really matter. All the progressive countries have GDP's that are far less than the US, but the quality of life for their people is much better.

We have 4 times the GDP of Germany, but I don't think that stresses Germans out too much, because we have 4 times their population, too. Of course, the real issue is that Germany has a much more equitable distribution of income (GINI - 27) than the US (45). Even though their GDP per capita is about 10% less than in the US their people are much better off because they benefit from that wealth creation much more than happens here.

China has 4 times the population of the US. In a fair world they would have 4 times the GDP of the US. Even if their national GDP equals ours in a few years on a per capita basis their people will still be far, far behind. Plus they have a distribution of income that is as bad as that of the US.

[dkf]

22. The question is how much of our standard of living do we owe to being the world's largest economy.

How much of our borrowing is enabled by this status.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

50. Standard of living is much more related to GDP per capita than to GDP alone.

That, and wealth distribution, of course. On those, the US hasn't been first for a LONG time. But for some time it was good enough even so.

[Romulox]

28. The impoverishing of the average American has not made our country more equitable.

In fact, just the opposite. :hi:

[Poll_Blind]

18. GDP isn't everything, as this amazing video of Chinese ghost malls and cities shows

China's Ghost Cities and Malls posted here at the DU video forums by DeSwiss.

If you haven't seen this yet, your jaw will drop.

PB

[KurtNYC]

24. They could shoot similar footage in Las vegas or Florida

plenty of empty buildings and shops. I wouldn't bet against China right now. They use long range planning for their economy and they execute. The one child policy has boosted the standard of living. They are huge in solar.

Building empty cities seems crazy but WE are fighting 3 wars at once.

[AtheistCrusader]

26. AND we give them a couple hundred billion a year in interest.

Free money for them to develop with.


Our current borrowing policy to spend on wars and weapons is unsustainable. It'll end one way or the other.

[Major Hogwash]

39. Where did you read it was that much?

Is there a link I can read to see how much money we give them each year?

[AtheistCrusader]

49. Here.

http://treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm
413 billion to service last year's debt.

I'm guesstimating, as China and Japan together hold the lions share of our debt. Bondholders aren't directly represented by the Chinese Government necessarily, though the Chinese central bank holds the largest chunk.

Together they probably suck up about 40% of the total interest payments. Maybe a little more.

[liberation]

54. Technically the lion's share of the debt is held by Americans

the debt held by foreigners is significant, no question about that, but is not the "lion's share."

There are certain racist/xenophobe undertones when we blame all our ills in them foreigner holding all our debt, which is not the case. Plenty of red blooded Americans are sucking this country far drier than foreigners would dare to.

[AtheistCrusader]

65. I certainly don't blame China/others for buying our debt, we sold it to them.

And we have benefited, at least for a time, from doing so.

I forgot that US Debtholders would be included in that payment number, thank you for correcting me. Yeah, that blue chunk represents monies such as Social Security money (the impetus behind Al Gore's 'lockbox' idea, which was a good idea)

[liberation]

70. Huh?

SS is not accounted as debt.

[AtheistCrusader]

71. SS isn't debt but

Intragovernmental holdings includes debt wherein the government has borrowed against the money in Social Security. It's a little bit like the loan some people take out against their own 401k's, where the 401k still exists, but the loan is secured by the money in that account. We have borrowed heavily against Social Security.

As of September 30th of last year $2.399 trillion if intragovernmental holdings was borrowed against the Social Security Administration (Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund).


Additional accounts borrowed against:


As of September 30th, 2010, gross intragovernmental debt holdings totaled approximately $4.53 trillion.

Which federal government accounts were owed the largest amounts of money as of September 30th, 2010? Let's take a look:

Social Security Administration
(Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund) - $2.399 trillion

Office of Personnel Management
(Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund) - $770 billion

Department of Defense
(Military Retirement Fund) - $282 billion

Department of Health and Human Services
(Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund) - $279.4 billion

Social Security Administration
(Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund) - $187.2 billion

Department of Defense
(DOD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Fund) - $142.2 billion

Department of Health and Human Services
(Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund) - $71 billion

Department of Energy
(Nuclear Waste Disposal Fund) - $47.6 billion

Office of Personnel Management
(Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund) - $42.1 billion

Office of Personnel Management
(Employees Life Insurance Fund) - $37.6 billion

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
(The Deposit Insurance Fund) - $37.4 billion

Department of Transportation
(Highway Trust Fund) - $24.4 billion

Department of the Treasury
(Exchange Stabilization Fund) - $20.4 billion

Department of Labor
(Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation) - $19.8 billion

Department of Labor
(Unemployment Trust Fund) - $18.7 billion

Office of Personnel Management
(Employees Health Benefits Fund) - $16.2 billion

Department of State
(Foreign Service Retirement and Disability Fund) - $15.8 billion

Department of Housing and Urban Development
(Federal Housing Authority - Liquidating Account) - $4.2 billion

Other Programs and Funds - $112.35 billion



http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/feddebt/feddebt_ann2010.pdf

[StarburstClock]

23. The IMF is as credible as Faux News

or Standard & Poors. All lie constantly and fake whatever "evidence" is needed to support their lies.

[DFW]

27. Our GDP dwarfs that of Switzerland, Denmark, Germany, France etc.

Whose citizens (ordinary working people, not billionaires) enjoy better lives, hmmm?

[liberation]

55. Well, you can also compare the GDP of the US vs. the GDP of the EU

and we have yet another marker that indeed we can see that the "century of America" has ended.

I doubt this will be a century dominated by a single economic superpower, but we will see instead a multitiered system. I hope so as that should restore some well needed balance. Our empire however has to do exactly what other empires have done before ours (and will do well after): implode. Our approach to our society is simply not sustainable. Period.

[abelenkpe]

30. China's economy leans on a real estate bubble waiting to pop

And the world economy will change dramatically over the next five years as the economic crisis is sorted out.

Besides the IMF forecasts? I have no faith in economic forecasts after the roller coaster of the past 12 years.

[mountainlion55]

31. Zeitgeist Move Forward

It don't matter if its China,India or the U.S.! If we don't change to resource based economies in the next fifty years it will be the end of the human experiment. Consumer based economies are unsustainable. :think:

[Moostache]

47. I've seen the films and am sympathetic, but have no hope for it.

This country cannot even get more than 50% of its citizens to agree that global warming is a significant and imminent threat, we can't get evolution taught in Biology classes without having that same tired 150+ year old nonsensical argument with fundamentalists, we took over 50 years of propaganda and outright lies from the tobacco industry before finally making the link between smoking and illnesses concrete and unassailable.

More recently the banksters robbed the world economy of 50M jobs and TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to pay off their last gambling binge on the profits-for-us, losses-for-you roulette wheel they call "financial engineering" and yet we cannot even CHARGE one of their CEOs with a single felony????

Resource economies will grow out of the ashes of civilization...after the wars and destruction and after more human beings die in ways they need not because someone will ALWAYS be able to convince at least a plurality of Americans that the "market" is not the problem, the "socialists / leftists / communists / atheists" are too blame.

That red hot poker sticking out of our collective ass is clearly stamped "Made on Wall Street"...but pulling it out and putting in the eye of a bloodsucker like Lloyd Blankein or Dick Fuld is apparently the modern day equivalent of a bridge too far.

[Enthusiast]

58. Now that's a post I can applaud.

Right on!

When the Obama Administration sent me an e-mail asking for my support my main argument against supporting the effort was this failure to prosecute Wall Street fraudsters, that and the failure to investigate and prosecute Bush Administration criminality. :applause:

[RB TexLa]

32. So they will be the biggest economy, so what?

[BobbyBoring]

34. Does this mean I'm not going to be rich some day?

SHIT!

[WinkyDink]

35. 2016: Tigers and Black rhinos become extinct.

[JackRiddler]

36. This is propaganda for austerity, little more.

2010 GDP
US = almost 15 trillion
China = almost 6 trillion

Population
US = 300 million
China = 1.6 billion

Area: About equivalent.

Environmental degradation caused per unit time: Soon also to be equivalent.

I worry about poisoning the oceans and species die-offs and warming the atmosphere and depleting the resources. I worry about nuclear war and "peaceful" nuclear energy. I worry about global class war and hot wars and corporate rule and dictatorships and injustices to the world's peoples. These tend not to be issues on which the IMF issues declarations.

I don't worry about China getting a turn to play Number One on top of this planetary shitpile, which is experiencing a global crisis, as an economy based on unsustainable practices and as a civilization destroying its own ecological basis.

I don't expect too many DU people to be invested in the China panic propaganda. Which smells so familiar, after seeing the Soviet and the Japanese and now even the Terra-ist threats come and go.

True, a mere devaluation of the dollar by one-half would make the Chinese GDP almost equivalent to the US, although still with five times the population. (It would also have some dramatic consequences on Chinese currency reserves and export markets, and who knows all the dominoes that would tumble, and what the result would be.)

Achieving GDP parity in nominal terms would hardly make China into the new overlord. There will be no new single overlord.

I say the current vintage of China Panic is part of the ongoing neoliberal offensive to force through greater austerity in the US (but without tax increases or cuts in "defense").

IMF and the ratings agencies are singing in tune with what the American billionaires and policymaking elite are already pushing as "inevitable."

Their idea of dealing with "the crisis of US power" is not to withdraw the 800 bases and multiple wars and occupations, or to invest in energy and transport conversion, but to cut pensions and health plans and wages, to bust unions, to lengthen working hours and make even more people redundant, to stop paying for libraries and colleges.

When that happens, when 2/3 of the American people are impoverished, then the IMF and Co. will discover that the US is in much better shape, and still a totally important Leader of the World.

.

[tiny elvis]

53. rev'rent

[Enthusiast]

59. Oh, baby! Excellent post!

"Their idea of dealing with "the crisis of US power" is not to withdraw the 800 bases and multiple wars and occupations, or to invest in energy and transport conversion, but to cut pensions and health plans and wages, to bust unions, to lengthen working hours and make even more people redundant, to stop paying for libraries and colleges."

How fucking stupid do they think we are? They know we are pretty stupid or they know at least 50% of the citizens are pretty fucking stupid. Ignorant and misinformed might be more appropriate words than stupid. But if we combine willfully ignorant and misinformed it equals stupid every time.

[SHRED]

37. And won't this signal...

...the new era when the American consumer will be replaced by the Chinese consumer?

pssst...they won't need us to buy stuff anymore.

[pitchforksandtorches]

38. I'm in the wong country

[WatchWhatISay]

40. So if Obama gets re-elected

and this all goes down in 2016, guess what they GOP will say in the next 2016 Presidential Election?

[lonestarnot]

43. IMF, World Bank suck ass. Who gives a fuck about their new world order.

[autorank]

44. We don't lose with this

We don't have to be the biggest, we have to have the broadest base of wealth. We don't have that
now with the top 1% taking in most of the new income generated. Correct that, put all the unemployed
in a position to work - the 23% including U-6 unemployment plus long term discouraged workers. We'll rock and sell a lot to China.

?hl=ad&t=1301663062

Alternate Unemployment Charts

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

[Mimosa]

45. SafeinOhio, many of us have followed for 30 years and thank you for keeping it up! n/t

[Kablooie]

46. So international trade may be managed with Chairman Mao bills soon?

[Firebrand Gary]

48. I hope all those right wing voters choke on this.

They say NO to a green energy industry, they say NO to mass transit/high speed trains, they say NO to a massive infrastructure projects. And in doing so they say NO to America remaining number one. I hope it was worth it to all you right wingers, you want Obama to fail so bad, you sold out your own country. Its on YOUR fucking hands!

Ironically, what was your last Presidential nominees slogan? Country first?

[grahamhgreen]

51. Not if we get out of the unfair trade agreements.

[Safetykitten]

52. So we did buy that rope. Not surprising.

[madrchsod]

61. so?.....