Experts Reject Fox News' Claim That Drilling Can Solve Dependence On Foreign Oil

[goodboy]

http://mediamatters.org/research/201103310022

On Fox News, Eric Bolling advanced several energy myths that have been debunked by experts, including the claim that the U.S. could end its dependence on foreign oil by expanding domestic drilling.

ERIC BOLLING: The bottom line is there's plenty of oil. We just need to be able to get it, access it here. We've got more oil than Brazil. We've got more oil than Saudi Arabia. How about an energy policy that isn't blocking, hindering, and obstructing our own drilling companies?

Of course, Bolling is a fuckin liar.

Tom O'Donnell: "It Is Impossible For The U.S. To Ever Again Achieve Energy Independence From Oil Imports By Producing More Oil At Home." Tom O'Donnell, professor of Graduate International Affairs at The New School and expert on the globalized energy sector responded to Bolling's claim by stating "It is not possible given the level of US proven reserves, for the US to become 'energy independent' (in terms of oil)." Further, O'Donnell explained:

Mr. Bolling asserts: "We have hundreds of billions of barrels equivalent sitting right here in America, we just have to permit it."

However, one should be careful with numbers. Speaking of the U.S. in terms of "100's" of billions of barrels of reserves is a gross overstatement of what we have available here in the U.S. yet to be pumped out of the ground.

Here are the actual numbers:

According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency at the DoE, the entire world, in 2009, had 1,354 billion barrels of proven reserves of oil.

Meanwhile, the U.S., including offshore and Alaska, has only 19.1 billion barrels. (In 2010, this number didn't change significantly.)

This means that the US has only 1.4% of all the world's proven oil reserves.

[Gman]

1. The drill here drill now crowd never addresses the question of

what we do when our oil runs out because he drilled here drilled now and all the rest of the oil in the world is foreign?

I say that to them and they kinda get a confused look on their faces and change the subject.

[rfranklin]

2. Don't confuse them with the facts...

It's an emotional thing with the wingnuts.

[Thunderstruck]

3. What's really interesting, and what we should be focusing on, is that even with 1,354

billion barrels of "proven" reserves of oil in the ground, that's only 43 years worth of global oil consumption, which is 31 billion barrels per year. That means that many people reading this right now will still be alive as this world that was built on oil slowly descends into ruin as oil becomes more and more scarce and, by default, more and more expensive.

And none of what I said above takes into account at all the expected increase in population, which will in turn increase the demand for oil, driving up prices and using up that 43-year supply faster and faster each year until you don't really have 43 years worth left at all, you have something less. Some consensus is forming in the oil-watching community that all oil exports will stop by the late 2030s as oil exporters reach their limits, saving whatever they have left for domestic purposes. If they are right, then we really have only about 20 years of oil left. And before anyone starts jumping up and down about new discoveries making up the difference, consider this: in 2009, there was only enough new oil discovered to fuel the United States, alone, for just two years, or about 16 billion barrels.

Check out these quotes from oil industry insiders:

"All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas." — William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005

"It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive." — Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008

[bbinacan]

4. How much in unproven reserves?

Does it say?

[Thunderstruck]

6. The general consensus is that we've used 1 trillion barrels so far; we have

~ 1 trillion recoverable, and 1 trillion barrels that we'll never be able to access.

So, the answer to your question would be that we have about 1 trillion barrels in "unproven" reserves.

We used 31 billion barrels of oil in 2009. But only enough "proven" reserves were discovered to replace half of that year's consumption.

A one-question pop-quiz: In what year did global oil discoveries peak and begin to decline?

[Terry in Austin]

7. Global peak discovery: mid-1960's

Starting in the late 1980's, we've used more oil each year than we discover that year. I believe the actual replacement rate is even worse than the half you mention.

Most sources I've seen put the ratio at four or five to one, barrels consumed to barrels discovered. This was summed up nicely in piece in the Feb 2005 issue of Oil & Gas Journal.

It's worth noting that "proven reserves" can be misleading, since much depends on who defines "recoverable." Usually, the proof is more of an academic exercise.

The real limiting factor is that oil gets harder to extract as it depletes. Somewhere not too far down the curve, there's a point where it takes more than a barrel to extract a barrel. At that point, oil ceases to be a real energy source.

[Thunderstruck]

9. "It's worth noting that "proven reserves" can be misleading..."

You may have noticed that I've put the word "proven" in quotation marks. :)

Yes, the magic equation is 1:1 EROEI. That's where the oil buck stops. We started back in the '20s at 100:1, 100 barrels produced for every one barrel used in production. Today, we are at about 8:1, or 8 barrels produced for every one barrel used in production. At the point at which it takes one barrel of oil to produce one barrel of oil, it's over.

And that time is coming in my expected lifetime. I'm 46. At some point in many of our lives, there will come a time when you can no longer get gas. And between now and then there will be lots of pain.

[TheWebHead]

5. a steady supply of 1 million barrels

would do a lot to deflate the current oil prices. basically what happens is that when we run up against capacity and there's fear of capacity going offline due to political turmoil, momentum investing goes into the oil market pushing up prices disproportionate to the amount of spare capacity used up. That obviously has little to do with dependency, but it plays into constricting economic growth, boosts inflation and puts political careers at risk.

[taterguy]

8. Wouldn't it be simpler just to not consume the oil in the first place?

[Terry in Austin]

10. It's that old dilemma

Rehab or cold turkey.

B-)