Anyone have any thoughts on what a post-Gaddafi Libya might look like?

[oberliner]

From what I have read, there is really no significant political organization and the military is quite weak. There seem to be a lot of different tribal groups with various long-standing rivalries. Anyone have any insights they can share?

[provis99]

1. fewer blonde Ukrainian masseuses?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8169368/WikiLeaks-Muammar-Gaddafi-close-to-voluptuous-Ukrainian-nurse.html

:shrug:

[tabatha]

2. I heard an interview on Al Jazeera

and he said that there are a large number of very accomplished people in Libya, who have had to more or less "hide their lights under a bushel". He said that the rest of the world will be very surprised.

[snagglepuss]

3. I heard that too about the tribal rivalries but I am wondering whether

Gadaffi played tribes against each other? Maybe this horrific bloodbath will unite them?

[David__77]

4. I don't think the country can survive if he is removed.

I am not saying it needs to survive - something else could replace it. The West is skating on thin ice with these things right now. I do not think a more favorable government to the West would emerge under these conditions.

[uppityperson]

5. k&r for a good question.

[HEyHEY]

6. Alot like the former Yugoslavia 15 years ago?

Not saying that I don't support them, but what happens after is REALLY crucial.

[Starry Messenger]

7. Not to be glib, but something better than a place where warplanes fire on protesters.

The pictures and video today have been heartbreaking.

[oberliner]

8. Let's hope

I agree with you about the photos/videos. I fear even more disturbing info will eventually be made public.

[mainer]

9. I fear the worst, particularly for women

I've traveled in Libya, slept under the stars in the desert, and in Tripoli I mingled with University students (both male and female) who laughed, joked, and flirted with each other, exactly as you'd see young men and women do in Turkey. Female literacy rates are over 70% and life expectancy is around 79 years. (Compare that, for instance, to Afghanistan.) Under Qaddafi, it's a socialistic country where women are educated.

In the desert, among the tribes where Qaddafi has less influence, it's a different story. You hardly see any women, who are kept under wraps in family tents. At large public gatherings anywhere, there are NO WOMEN to be seen. Will this be the future of Libya, vanished women and clan warfare? I hope not.

I am cautious about the news coming out of Libya, wondering how much of it is confirmable and how much is analagous to Kuwaiti babies killed in incubators. We were duped by Chalabi once, who told us democracy in Iraq would be a piece of cake.

p.s., I hope this post doesn't unleash another assault of "fuck-you's", which my minority opinion seems to be attracting lately. It's hard to express an unpopular opinion without being demonized around here.

[oberliner]

10. Thank you for your insights

Why do you think women aren't seen among those tribes in the desert?

[mainer]

11. They're kept out of sight. Or afraid to show up.

We were part of a huge gathering one evening in the desert, with hundreds of local men. NO WOMEN were around except for foreign visitors. When we asked the men why they hadn't brought their wives, they said: "Why would women want to be here?" as if it was the most absurd question they'd ever heard.

At first the atmosphere seemed charged and a little worrisome because of the raucous crowds, but it turned out to be a very friendly gathering. Libyans are a beautiful people, with great variability in their appearance. The word among the tribes is that Qaddafi is actually half-Italian, and that his mother (Bedouin) may have been raped by an Italian soldier.

[oberliner]

13. It is based on religious beliefs or something else?

I am curious to know where these attitudes come from. Is it just a lack of modernity or is it connected to religious beliefs or what?

[mainer]

12. Is the CIA fomenting violence pre-invasion?

I came across this fascinating post over here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=481899&mesg_id=481971

False reports of violence in Benghazi, which is peaceful. It turns out this fake report of massive violence may be from a US PsyOps source.

Which makes you wonder: Why exaggerate violence in Libya? Is it to influence world opinion and pave the way for an outside invasion and toppling of Qaddafi? Was this the plan all along?

How much of this rebellion is influenced by outsiders?