So It Begins/7 Senate Democrats and 20 House Republicans could face tough reelection battles 2012

[sasha031]

Source: The Cook Report

If I had my druthers, I’d just as soon wait a while before starting to think about 2012—let a decent interval elapse between the end of one election cycle and the beginning of another. But professional obligations dictate otherwise, so here’s an early look at the contours of the 2012 House and Senate races.To state the obvious, we do not know yet what the economic and political climate will be, not to mention the performance of the candidates who will be on the ballot. But we do know some basic numbers and who will be up for reelection.First, the numbers. In the Senate, Democrats are facing the first round of a two-part election ordeal that is the by-product of their netting six seats in 2006 and eight in 2008. In wave years such as those, some very bright and deserving people get elected; some moderately bright and somewhat-deserving people win; and some, well, let’s just say that some candidates are very fortunate to be running at the right time. Their victories, no doubt, amazed everyone in their high school graduating class.
So Senate Democrats will have the numbers against them in 2012 and 2014. In 2012, they will have 23 seats in play, compared with only 10 Republican seats. Four years from now, Democrats will have 20 seats up, compared with 13 for the GOP.In the first round of The Cook Political Report’s 2012 Senate ratings, Democrats start with three incumbents whose races are classified as toss-ups: Ben Nelson in Nebraska, Jim Webb in Virginia, and newly elected Joe Manchin in West Virginia. Three Democrats are in the “Lean Democratic” column: Bill Nelson in Florida, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. To that list you can add independent Joe Lieberman in Connecticut, who sits and caucuses with the Democrats. So, that’s seven incumbents in races expected to be competitive.
Five more Senate Democrats begin the cycle in the “Likely Democratic” column, essentially a watch list of contests that are not yet—but could well become—competitive. In that category are Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Jon Tester in Montana, Kent Conrad in North Dakota, Robert Casey in Pennsylvania, and Maria Cantwell in Washington. The remaining 11 Democratic-held seats start off in the “Solid Democratic” category.


Read more: http://nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/7-senate-democrats-20-house-republicans-will-face-tough-races-in-2012-20101216

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much more at link
maybe this is something we should start thinking about.

[MadMaddie]

1. Yes we have to start work now but I have a feeling that

the Republican antics in the House over the next two years will benefit the Democratic party.

[sasha031]

2. I wouldn't know where to start with this having lived in a Blue State all my life

but I would certainly get to work and do everything I can to help.

the redistricting is a tricky situation.

we need a Progressive Senate and Congress

[tabbycat31]

4. You can work remotely

I've lived in a blue states in the northeast my entire life but I went on the road this campaign season to work on a race in KY.

If you want to help from anywhere, you can make phone calls from home.

[sasha031]

6. I plan to ...maybe even go to another state

[Littlecat]

3. I plan on working my butt off

to help Sharrod Brown get reelected in Ohio. After Kasich and Portman I'm a little worried

[sasha031]

5. I would send everything I have to Sherrod Brown

[HughBeaumont]

7. Why anyone would replace a great voice of the middle/working/poor with a teabagger . . .

I don't know.

But leave it to SlowHio to somehow find a way. And if Brown loses 2012 to some rum-dum fascist son of privilege, I'll be moving when I retire.

Portman won because Lee Fisher was a weak candidate and Kasich the Fascist won because Republicans (like Kasich and his ilk) ruined the economy and Strickland happened to be a convenient Democrat in the wrong place at the wrong time for the low-info assholes to blame it on.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. Two potential "silver linings":

1.)Overreach of the Republican Tea Party in the House. Oh sure, there is always the possibility that the teabaggers could really do something good, maybe even great, for the country. :rofl: Occam's Razor, however suggests that the Republican Tea Party will be a (largely) unmitigated disaster that will hopefully bring some moderates and independents back to the Democratic fold. We lost the House in 2010 but those new Republican Freshman will be more vulnerable in 2012 once the s**t really hits the fan in the next Congress, which it almost surely will. The one potential area for concern would be redistricting, although, of course, that wouldn't apply to the Senators up for re-election.

2.)President Obama will be running for re-election in 2012 and is, at least according to some very preliminary findings, favored to win-re-election over pretty much any of the top Republican contenders, some of them by a huge margin. As it will be a Presidential election year, turnout will be higher and people showing up to vote will likely vote for all of the Democratic candidates on the ballot. As long as things are continuing to look favorable for President Obama (i.e. the economy improves noticeably), I have little reason to believe that President Obama won't win re-election and it will make conditions for other Democrats more favorable as well.