Mubarack gone. What's next?

[MineralMan]

Mubarack is out, but who's in? Where's the government of Egypt going to go next. Soon, the masses of people will leave the streets, but will there be real reform? That remains to be seen.

[quinnox]

1. Its none of my concern

Maybe we can get this news to drop off the front page soon, I'm tired of hearing about this.

[originalpckelly]

4. You live in the USA?

You pay taxes?

It is of your concern. Mubarak was our nation's dictator. He was propped up by the USA. Your taxes went to pay him, buy his military, and keep his stooges in the nice life.

He was almost an extension of our government, like a governor in a colony in the old fashioned imperial.colonial days of the European countries going around forming colonies in far off lands.

This is a change in the American Empire, and may signify its end. This could be the first piece to leave the fold.

The democracy thing could catch on.

[MineralMan]

5. Democracy is far from assured in Egypt.

The military still runs the place. That hasn't changed.

[originalpckelly]

6. No, the interior ministry used to run the place.

They were the ones with the police who attacked the protesters on the first day of this. The military in Egypt is a conscripted one, so it's filled with normal people, not just Mubarak cronies.

That said, in no way is it clear whether or not there will be some type of military dictatorship.

[MineralMan]

10. Not much at all is really clear, except that Mubarack is out.

That may be important, or it may not. Symbolically, it's certainly important, and will doubtless get the people off the streets. What happens after that is up in the air.

[tekisui]

23. How do you know it will get the people off the streets?

[MineralMan]

24. Watch. Wait. You'll see.

[tekisui]

25. HA!

This from the guy who thought Mubarak would make it and who also thought the army would open fire on the protesters. I'll watch and wait. But, don't put much stock in what you say.

The people will leave when they feel the have reached their goals. This may be it. It may not be.

[MineralMan]

26. No, I never said Mubarack would make it. I said I didn't know.

Nobody knows. Not here, and not in Egypt. I think it likely that the crowds will disperse. They got Mubarack out of the picture. Then, we'll see what happens after that.

Don't confuse my statements that we can't know what will happen with predictions. However, I will predict that the crowds will disperse now.

I'm not all that concerned with the stock you put in what I say. Doesn't really matter much in terms of what will happen.

[tekisui]

32. If Mubarak had left two weeks ago, his leaving may have been enough.

Now, they are more emboldened and more focused. It will have to be a democracy now.

[CreekDog]

34. did you know that during the 2005 Elections, there were originally lots of opposition candidates?

but Mubarak kept them from running.

there are reform elements in Egypt, assuming they can run, and Mubarak, not the Egyptian Army stopped them last time and he's gone.

[Bragi]

11. Poor you!

Having to endure a news story that doesn't interest you. The horror!

[Fuzz]

19. I'm just glad we're not hearing about Linsey Lohan's stolen necklace thing anymore.

[quinnox]

21. I suppose there is that

good point.

[fishwax]

22. you could always hide the threads

Sorry, but the end of a 30-year dictatorship through weeks of popular (and largely peaceful) protest in a region that is historically volatile, strategically central to our (and many other nation's) interests, and showing signs of a ripple effect of popular protest is front page news.

[CreekDog]

33. i'm kicking this

not sorry it's contaminating your eyes/ears.

:hi:

[originalpckelly]

2. That's what I'm worried about too.

I don't like the whole deal of the Armed forces controlling things, because it puts civilian authority below that of the military, and that's no good way to start a democracy.

Our revolution, though it eventually ended up creating an empire, was headed by a civilian body making decisions, not just a military organization.

The military is an inherently undemocratic thing. It is based upon taking orders from above, or discipline. Not like democracy, which is based upon a healthy disrespect of authority and is undisciplined.

Let's hope some civilians try to get hold of that military, or this will not end well.

[MineralMan]

7. Yup. The Egyptian military is still in control of Egypt.

Unless that changes, it's doubtful that a dramatic shift will occur. And I don't see a good path for the military to give up its power. The people of Egypt may have been able to oust Mubarack, with the tacit cooperation of the military, but they'll have a harder time ousting military control.

[Duer 157099]

3. Betcha the US military NOW gets involved

Solidarity of military or something like that.

I hope not, but I can certainly envision it, especially when the Egyptian military depends on US money.

[MineralMan]

8. I doubt that very much. We're not going to start another major

military exercise in futility. We already have two of those sapping our economy and spirit. One's winding down, but the other is not. There will be no direct involvement with our military in Egypt. That isn't going to happen.

[originalpckelly]

9. The only real interest we have is the Suez canal.

A lot of fucking oil goes through there, among other shipping.

But that's a limited type of deal.

[MineralMan]

12. Right. We, and others, can deal with Suez.

Internal affairs in Egypt, though, isn't our deal. We will probably stay hands-off on that. I have no idea how it will play out, but it's probably not going to be the lovely democratic government many think is now assured. Not much experience with that in the Middle East.

[Zhade]

31. Four, not two. You neglected the unofficial military actions in Yemen and Pakistan.

NT!

[Iterate]

13. Clap hands today, wring hands tomorrow.

The Egyptian people have well managed in 23 days one of the largest non-violent revolutions in history. It's not a bad start.

[MineralMan]

15. I'm always looking at tomorrow. Today is very brief.

Mubarack is just a symbol. Yes, he's gone. Symbolically, it's a great victory. Tomorrow has arrived already.

[Iterate]

27. I don't think they marched down a cul-de-sac.

It was always a moment for a little laugh when the chants in the square were "he must leave, we will leave", because they had already begun the hard work of democracy and there would be no turning back, no going home. I felt like saying, no, you've all just committed every weekend for the rest of your lives to endless meetings and discussions of what the future will bring. They already knew it, of course, but that mirror-neuron impulse is strong. Even tonight the interviews, the tweets, the blogs are showing a pretty sophisticated understanding of what must be done next.

Look, I'm a person who doesn't leave the house without checking for keys three times, so I understand caution, but sometimes a step is just a leap.

[Rex]

14. Don't be so sure he is just going to 'ride off into the sunset'.

I don't believe it.

[MineralMan]

16. I'm not sure of anything. Hence my post.

I suspect that Mubarack is now out of the picture. But, the picture that is to come is still in the camera. I have no idea what it will look like, and I don't make predictions.

[Rex]

20. You did to make a prediction...you said he was gone.

[RainDog]

17. a committee of scholars, lawyers, and representatives of various political groups

will, hopefully, meet and draft a constitution.

the army knows that people will return to the streets (and not in celebration) if this moment is not honored.

the military has factions that back the anti-Mubarak groups, as well as those who support the colonial power brokers.

I wish the people of Egypt the very best as they work out their destiny - and I remind people in the U.S. that it took this nation years and years to work out a constitution and required a civil war to make that constitution applicable to a large section of the population - and required amendments to extend democracy to others, even after a war.

democracy is a living thing that requires struggle to achieve and maintain because the forces of repression and brute power and oligarchy are always there intent on destroying democracy.

[MineralMan]

18. Yes, that would be a good thing, and I hope that's what happens.

I'm sure there are many factions in play. Creating a new government is difficult, and fraught with danger. I think we'll all need a lot of patience before we see the end result of all this. Sadly, we're not big on patience.

[Shagbark Hickory]

28. enter: new corrupt, anti-semetic, anti-west regime. nt

[kudzu22]

29. My money's on Brett Favre

[TBF]

30. That dude hasn't done anything in years -

but as a life-long Packer fan I'm certainly for sending him out of the country.