One Week Later: Why is Mubarak still President of Egypt?

[Bragi]

Last Tuesday, an estimated 2 million people marched to Tahrir square demanding the immediate resignation of Mubarak.

Mubarak gave a speech that night that simply enraged the protesters even more, and then Obama spoke.

After this, everyone left the square resolving to return on "Departure Friday" which would be Mubarak's final day in Egypt, if he hadn't already departed before then.

Now, a week later, Mubarak is still in power, has appointed his successor, and shows no signs of leaving, or being forced to leave. And like the rest of the world, he and his thugs are just watching the protest fizzle.

So why was Mubarak poised a week ago for getting tossed, but now looks safe to stay on till September, maybe even beyond? What happened?

I have my theory, which focuses on President Obama's disappointing speech a week ago, the one where he said lots of nice words about democracy but also made it clear that he had no objection to Mubarak staying on to be part of the "orderly transition" to a new and democratic Egypt.

I also recall the the White House then spending the next two days trying to decipher the speech, trying to explain the difference between "transition begins now" and "Mubarak leaving now" and the speech not being an abandonment of the pro-democracy movement.

I think Obama's speech made a huge difference, and explains why Mubarak remains President today.

I'm open to other interpretations.

[ananda]

1. Except the protests aren't fizzling!

Look at today's numbers, all over Egypt!

[Bragi]

8. The protests are no longer a threat to Mubarak

I suppose it's possible that the protests will re-establish the anti-Mubarak momentum that was lost last week.

However, it seems equally possible that Mubarak and his thugs will just keep pushing out "reforms" and "good news" bits for their supporters, while the protests eventually subside.

After that, the important but quiet "transition" work of dealing with the pro-democracy ringleaders can then begin in all seriousness.

[malaise]

17. The strike in the Suez Canal will change

everything. Bye Bye Mubarak. Just go!

[Bragi]

18. I hope so

If that's what it takes to get the U.S to finally support the removal of Mubarak, then I hope they shut down the canal.

[Richardo]

2. Because Egypt exists in the real world and not in the digital DU realm...

...where everything is cut and dried and there's always an obvious, straightforward answer.

[sharp_stick]

5. +1

It's a lot tougher to make real changes to a 30 year old established regime than a lot of people seem to think.

[Bragi]

14. My my, doing stuff is just so hard

But you'd think that changing a 30-year old "established regime" would be a bit easier if you were the country that established that regime and kept it in power for 30 years.

[Richardo]

19. Again, Google "iran", "1979" and "shah" and all will be revealed

Changing that 'established regime' went swimmingly.

[SlimJimmy]

10. Bingo (nt)

[elocs]

11. The digital DU fantasy realm where people believe because they want things to happen, they will,

and in the way they want them to happen. To many everything is cut and dried and there is always an obvious straightforward answer and it is theirs.

[OHdem10]

3. Influence of other countries in the region. Saudi Arabia, Jordan,

Israel, other Arab counties. Most of the Leaders
in these countries have declared openly their support
for Mubarak. Many of these are allies with U.S.
Some may say the President cannot be seen as quickly
throwing Mubarak under the bus because other allies
would question our "friendship" with them.

Therefore, Obama and Hilary Clinton are walking a tight
rope.

I am not saying what is right or wrong just putting
a side out to consider.

[KittyWampus]

4. LOL!

[emulatorloo]

6. How about Mubarak has dug in and trying to wait the protestors out.

Obviously he doesn't want to give up power - he thinks if he hangs on the protestors will give up or start fighting amongst themselves.

You are as bad as the right wing with the "Everything is Obama's Fault" scenario.

[supernova]

7. It took almost a month for the Tunisian prez

to go, so I don't think a couple of weeks of kick ass protests in Egypt are going to do it.

I think the protesters realize this is going to be a long haul. Especially since most in the world, US, seem lukewarm to what they want.

[Bragi]

9. Yes, that's worth noting /nt

[damntexdem]

12. Thirty years later: why is Mubarak still president of Egypt.

I mean, just how slow does the U.S. have to go with Egypt? And why is it up to the U.S. to counsel "go slow" and "orderly transition"?

[Richardo]

13. Google "Iran" and "1979" and all will be revealed.

We all know how well THAT went. And is still going.

[Obamanaut]

15. An earlier prediction that is beginning to look closer to happening

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=361167&mesg_id=361642

No one is getting rid of anyone. In the not too distant future Mubarak will be in the US.

There will be closed door meetings in the WH, with photo ops to follow on the WH lawn.

Mubarak will be given a couple billion dollars, and a new Gulfstream and an apology for the inconvenience of having to come all this way to get the jet.

Then, billions as usual. Nothing will change.

The President will announce a plan to live up to his campaign promise to double foreign aid to $50 billion by 2012. Egypt's poor, and the poor of the other recipients will see little, if any, of this.

[harun]

16. It's not just the people against Mubarak. It is the people against Mubarak, Israel and the U.S.

Those three can push pretty hard, if you haven't noticed.