Will Apple Go into a Stagnant Phase?

[MineralMan]

The passing of Steve Jobs marks a huge event in Apple's history. Over the past 30 years, as I've followed and written about the computer industry, I've noticed that the leaving or death of heavily-involved people at the head of computer companies, hardware or software, has almost always led to a period of stagnation at those companies. Often, it seems like it was the lack of some sort of visionary leadership that had driven the company for many years that caused this stagnation. I could name a number of companies where that happened, but most people know the names.

What do you think? Will Apple follow that pattern?

[HopeHoops]

1. No fucking way. Now is the perfect time for them to go apeshit.

[MineralMan]

2. That has rarely been the case for other companies.

Why would Apple be different?

[HopeHoops]

3. Have they ever NOT been different?

For better or for worse, it was always different.

[MineralMan]

5. Not really. Not as much as you'd like to think.

Yes, their products have been different, but that was driven by individual visions. That's my point. Throughout the industry, when the person or people with the vision leave, things stagnate. Is Apple, the corporation, any different? I doubt it. It's had its ups and downs, and those have been tied closely to the participation or non-participation of the founders.

Will the real innovation continue? That's the question.

[HopeHoops]

9. I think the "innovation" part slipped away a long time ago, but the "different" part continued.

The Onion's spoof on the "iWheel" was great - a computer with the iPod wheel as its only input device (which of course makes it take forever to get anything done). They've had their blunders. I worked on an Apple III at one point and I can say, without question, that was probably the biggest fuck-up of anything they ever produced. The original iMac was pretty fucked up too - just try upgrading something in it.

It will take a while before they hammer out the feeding order, but eventually someone will emerge as the new leader in "wow, I never though of trying that before" like Jobs. All M$ has ever done is copy what everyone else was already doing. The Amiga was capable of full multitasking in the mid 80's. M$ had barely gotten Win 2.0 (DOS-based graphics) to stabilize. Apple isn't like that. The Mac II was actually in competition with the Amiga and the Atari ST, not M$.

[justiceischeap]

4. I've been 'concerned' for some time about Jobs passing

He saved Apple in the late 90's and I hope, since he had plenty of time since being diagnosed with cancer, he put some sort of plan and employees in place, to allow the company to go forward successfully. Say what you will in the PC vs. Mac debate, say what you will about Apple's manufacturing process (I'd hazard a guess that PCs aren't made under much, if any better, circumstances), say what you will about the price disparities but it's good to have options out there. I prefer my Mac not because it's cool (I was using Apple computers before they were 'cool') but for me, it just works better. It's easier to maintain, it displays web fonts better (as a web designer, that's important to me) and even though I'm paying a lot more money for my laptop than most people, I know my laptop is going to last longer and run better than most PC laptops on the market (I know this from having a Windoze PC for cross-browser testing).

So, yeah, I think you're speculation is correct Mineral, I think Apple will go into a stagnant phase, though I hope it won't.

[MineralMan]

6. I've been a PC user all along, although I've incorporated Macs

into my life from time to time when my journalism work required. I'm not doing that kind of writing any longer, and all the Apple products are gone from my office, now. Really, PCs have been imported commodities since very early. My first PC was an Epson Equity II. I couldn't afford the IBM. I couldn't afford a Mac, either. The open architecture of the PC drove the plethora of clone-makers very early on, and MS-DOS and, later, Windows, was an OS that was very accessible to developers. Yes, Microsoft retained some secrecy about parts of the Windows OS, but that didn't stop developers from putting out a bewildering choice of applications.

The battle was really between closed and open systems. Developing for the PC was easier that developing for the Mac. That, and the lower price for the PC platform, influenced the business community. And that drove sales. No question that the PC was a lousy graphics platform for a long time, and dismal at gaming. But, it ran the business apps just fine, so business bought PCs.

Now, it's not really about computers anymore. They're just boxes that everyone knows how to use. Mac, PC, it doesn't really matter any longer. It's the other junk that Apple has capitalized on. And there's plenty of competition in that market, too.

The release of a less-than-spectacular revision of the I-phone this week is sort of symptomatic of what I'm wondering about.

[justiceischeap]

11. I figure that was planned long before Jobs retired.

It gives people something to look forward to next year and allows Apple to keep some footing. I know the lack of a "new" product disappointed quite a few on Wall St. but I think it was a smart move for Apple now. I suspect those in the know at Apple also knew Jobs was moments from dying. It's kinda perfect that he held out until the day after their updated version of iPhone 4s was announced. Of course, if memory serves, they did that with the iPhone 3 too. They announced the iPhone 3s after the 3, so I wasn't really expecting them to announce 5 so soon. I mean, cell contracts usually last two years.

[Swede]

7. Apple stagnated when they got rid of Jobs the 1st time around.

If TPTB at Apple haven't changed,it may follow the ebb and flow of other companies.

[Occupied1]

8. no. jobs wasn't that important, though seems a lot of folks don't get it

[UP_4012]

10. Unfortunately, I believe Apple

will start to slip, relase bad product after bad product, and then very nearly file for bankruptcy in 10 years. The same thing happened when they fired Jobs orginally. From what I could gather, especially back in the eighties, Jobs had a very micro-managing attitude. I doubt the enginering department could wipe their ass wthout his guidance.

[uncle ray]

12. i expect they'll follow the Walton family lead.n/t.