If Democrats in special elections ran on hot issues, they'd win...think Kathy Hochul

[alp227]

This year, New York had two special elections for vacated House of Reps seats in which both Representatives - Anthony Weiner (Democrat, 9th) and Chris Lee (Republican, 26th) - resigned over sex scandals. Both districts normally were heavily partisan in favor of their previous candidate's party. However, both districts switched parties after this year's special elections. Why?

In NY-26, a normally Republican district, which includes areas around the Buffalo and Rochester suburbs, Democrat Kathy Hochul campaigned on attacking Republican Jane Corwin for supporting Paul Ryan's proposed privatization of Medicare.

Meanwhile, in the normally Democratic NY-9 (Brooklyn and Queens) that voted for Democrats throughout the 2000s and where Weiner won all his House elections with 60+ percent of the vote, but (R) Bob Turner won with higher support from Orthodox Jewish voters whose attention came on issues like Obama supporting Palestinian statehood. And Turner even exploited the NYC Muslim community center issue. Did the Democratic candidate David Weprin even dare speak out for jobs, against the Tea Party, or on any issue that would galvanize the liberal base? I didn't hear.

Because special elections don't have regular election turnouts, being passive and hoping for an easy win is dangerous. That's been the lesson since Scott Brown won the late Ted Kennedy's former US Senate seat...of course with strong Tea Party backing.

(on edit) Just realized that Michael Savage, whose parents are Jewish Russian immigrants, went to Jamaica High School in this district. Hmm.

[frazzled]

1. It would be nice, if true, that issues determine the outcomes

But the facts are:

1) Weprin didn't even live in the 9th District. People don't like that much. So how did he get to be the candidate? Because Governor Cuomo refused to have a primary and handed over the decision to the boss of the creaky old Democratic machine. He picked a weak candidate who didn't even live there. The Israeli support question was an issue there because a bunch of Hassidic and Orthodox Jews live there. They don't live in NY-26. D'oh.

2) The conclusion one could just as easily draw from these two elections: people don't like representatives who spend their time on the Internet exposing themselves. They tend to get disgusted and either stay home or vote for the other party.

If you think going more liberal in the increasingly conservative 9th district was going to be the answer to winning this thing, that's nuts.

[alp227]

2. Hmm, I thought Turner didn't, but turns out he lives in gated community in NY9.

thanks for clarifying. but yeah Weprin was passive, just as Coakley was before losing to Brown.