California Field Poll: Obama approval rating in state falls to 46%

[WI_DEM]

For the first time since Obama became president in January 2009, fewer than half (46 percent) of California voters approve of his performance as president - a figure that's dropped eight percentage points in three months, according to a Field Poll survey of attitudes toward Obama released today.
The poll of 1,001 registered state voters was taken Sept. 1-12. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Overall, the net drop in Obama's approval rating was 15 points, going from +17 in June to +2 today. (Note that there wasn't a bin Laden bump in California; his approval numbers were unchanged from March to June, so these numbers aren't a function of cherry-picking.)

The core of the problem is that a growing number of Californians feel the country isn't on the right track. Last September, the right track/wrong track number stood at 34%/55%, a 21 point gap. Today, it's 21%/68%, a 47 point gap. Obama's economic approval rating has taken a corresponding hit, with 40% approving and 54% disapproving, a 15 point net shift from one year ago when 48% approved and 47% disapproved.

Clearly, Obama's strategy to "win the middle" didn't work. His biggest drop in support came from independent voters, among whom his net approval dropped by a whopping 26 points, going from +28 to +2. Among Democrats, he fell by 17, going from +65 to +48, and among Republicans he dropped by 5, going from -58 to -63. (Note that this poll was mostly conducted before Obama's jobs speech.)

More Californians are inclined to reelect Obama than to vote against him by a 5 point margin, 49% to 44%. However, 33% are strongly disinclined to vote for his reelection compared with 28% inclined to vote for him, so there is the potential for an intensity gap. Of course, if twelve months from now we're seriously discussing whether California is in play, then the election is pretty much over and whoever the GOP nominee is will be in the process of coasting to victory.

www.dailykos.com

[closeupready]

1. "winning the middle" has always been simply a rationalization.

nt

[WI_DEM]

2. more californians inclined to vote to re-elect by 49-44, of course he won CA in 2008 by more than

20-points, so if CA is in anyway competitive in 2012--Obama is on his way to being a one-term president.

[dennis4868]

3. Problem Obama has to overcome...

and has done a piss poor job of doing so far is that 99% of voters do not follow politics like we do and they only look to results...they are TOTALLY UNAWARE that repubs are obstructing any progress to be made so that they can get the WH in 2012...their plan is working better than they probably ever thought it would. Obstruct = no progress and things get worse = voters blame Obama. This is THE REASON why Obama's approval #s are going down, even in California.

The Obama WH never seems concerned about the perception of things, and only results. But in politics, perception is everything. I am worried that it is too late for Obama and his people to overcome this problem.

[WI_DEM]

4. I agree. How people would even consider voting Republican with all that

they have done to obstruct and destroy the economy--is beyond me. It has to be that the sheeple aren't paying attention.

[YellowCosmicSun]

5. There isn't a chance in hell that he loses California. Next?

[Safetykitten]

6. I agree, They are so smart, his advisors. And our people here that tell us not to worry. It's...

comforting to know that with these resources we will be just swell!

[YellowCosmicSun]

7. You're smarter?

I find that hard to believe.

[Broderick]

8. Oh jeepers

And you have the right and know better to make an accusation like that.

jeezzz.

[kwolf68]

9. Yea...but

If Cali is anything near competitive he's toast.

[Broderick]

10. It won't be. Next.

[former9thward]

11. You were the poster who said the pollsters would be wrong in NY-9, no?

[Broderick]

12. Do you like to praise the enemy?

Just curious

[former9thward]

13. Do you like to build strawmen?

Just curious.