Republicans Are Clear Favorites in New York and Nevada Special Elections

[villager]

Source: NY Times

<snip>

Mr. Weprin trails by an average of 5.4 points in the three most recent nonpartisan polls, within this margin of error. (I count both the Public Policy Polling and Magellan Strategies polls as nonpartisan because both polls were paid for by the survey firms themselves, although these firms conduct surveys for Democratic and Republican candidates, respectively.)

That means Mr. Weprin stands a chance. But in no way, also, should the race be thought of as a “tossup” or “too close to call.” Given his deficit in the polls, he has only about a 14 percent chance of pulling out the election based on these surveys.

As I mentioned last week, some of the nonpolling factors slightly favor Mr. Weprin: his significant fund-raising advantage, for instance, could translate into a superior turnout operation. Even if you were to spot him 2 extra points for this, however — which is probably generous — he would still be a 3-to-1 underdog. And the error could just as easily run in the other direction, meaning a double-digit win for Mr. Turner.

The Nevada race, meanwhile, which had once been expected to be close, instead looks safe for the Republican, Mark Amodei, who leads by 13 points in the only recent poll. That would translate into only about a 1-in-200 chance of the Democrat, Kate Marshall, pulling out a miracle.

Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/13/republicans-are-clear-favorites-in-new-york-and-nevada-special-elections/?smid=tw-nytimespolitics&seid=auto

[No Elephants]

1. Are Democrats who were on TV every five minutes (it seemed) daily, demanding Weiner's resignation

happy now?

Clinton did a lot worse than email adult women who were flirting with him online and no one in the Party demanded his resignation. In fact, the Party defended him against being hounded by Republicans and Special Counsel.

I'm not saying Weiner was a saint, or even that I would have voted for him. I'm saying only that voters should have been allowed to decide, without a Greek chorus from Democrats making it impossible for him to move on.

And also saying there was a double standard, perhaps ironically, given his wife working with Hillary. And didn't Bubba have the gall to condemn Weiner, too?

Tough to be left of center in today's Democratic Party.

[DrDan]

2. also tough to take the higher ground, apparently

[No Elephants]

3. Meaning?

[DrDan]

9. meaning in the current polical climate, taking the high ground regarding the expected behavior of

our elected officials is not an easy task - not particularly popular with many, including many here.

[No Elephants]

10. Thank you. I wasn't sure, though, what you consider the "high ground."

In your opinion, would the high grouond be asking him to step down, or leaving his fate to his voters?

IMO, the voters should decide--unless, of course, he chose to step down voluntarily--truly voluntarily, that is.

(typo edit)

[DrDan]

12. I agree with that - except I would expect the party to make it

abundantly clear that his behavior was inappropriate - and their support would not be forthcoming. Our party need to return to some basic values - we seem to be straying.

[aquart]

5. The GOP got us to do their dirty work. Weren't we clever?

Speaking of which, I haven't seen some of his worst critics here since. Not that I'm suspicious of a well-funded and deeply inlaid disinformation campaign against our best and most vocal advocates or anything.

I can well believe that the only interest of some is to express outrage at the moral flaws of others.

[No Elephants]

6. I can express moral outrage too AND, at the same time, be willing to leave it to the voters.

BTW, I'm not at all clear on how it was the GOP that got one Democrat after another on TV demanding he resign. Seemed to me only the highest levels of the Democratic Party could have orchestrated that one, especially when folks like Bubba and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, head of the DNC, were among the condemning Greek chorus.

[RC]

7. What does anyone expect from the left wing(DLC) of the republican party

[disndat]

4. The Weprin supporters

could take the consolation prize - the district 9 may be redistricted out in a few months.

[RhodaA]

8. Here's how they do it (one way at least) - eventually it sticks no matter if it's a lie.

It start back in June - Kristol and his group, The Emergency Committee for Israel.

"ECI, Bill Kristol and the “Anti-Israel” Obama Smear Campaign"
http://www.culturaldirection.com/archives/8367

[HappyMe]

11. Voting results already in?

Oh wait, it's only noon.

[villager]

13. I wonder if the unreccing was designed to make the mean polls go away?

Well, let's see if it works...

[exelwood]

14. I'm betting Weprin wins...

The DCCC is pouring in half a million in ad buys over a four day period and that will be enough to take the edge. Watch and see! :)

[marasinghe]

15. here's hoping you're right. sticks in my craw that fellow City dwellers would elect a repuke POS -

unless there was a major moral, or economic, reason to do so.