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We will need to add 380,000 jobs per month for 3 years...

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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 11:43 AM
Original message
We will need to add 380,000 jobs per month for 3 years...
to get the unemployment rate back down to 6%.

What is the likelihood of that?

http://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/opinion/morici/2011/060111.aspx
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Mr Deltoid Donating Member (694 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 11:48 AM
Response to Original message
1. Won't happen until the Bush tax cuts expire
Until that happens, we will stay where we are or get worse.
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Broderick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 11:51 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Perhaps you are right
but I would like to know how tax increases will improve unemployment numbers. I think there is historical data to back it up that one could look at, but overall I don't have a grasp as to how it would cure unemployment. I know the debt load is affected severely and our credit rating went down likely because we continued the tax cuts, and that might affect employment in some ways. Just searching for the right argument I guess.
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Harmony Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 11:55 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Ending tax cuts means that social programs are strengthened
which means no austerity for the lower/middle class. Without austerity the lower/middle class is able to spend on goods because we are a demand driven economy.

If the tax cuts are not ended, then austerity will be on the table, and demand will plummet. Then we will have a gallery of CEO's invade CNBC about how they don't understand why demand is so low?

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Mr Deltoid Donating Member (694 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. Because of the Bush tax cuts, Obama and the GOP implemented austerity
Remember the debt ceiling fight? The resulting austerity legislation does major harm to the middle class, the poor, the elderly, the sick and children. All of that austerity could have been avoided by merely getting rid of the ruinous Bush tax cuts. We have a revenue problem and the economy will not improve until revenues improve.

Tax cutting is the LEAST stimulative thing that can be done for an economy. Tax cutting has devistated our country.

When Bill Clinton took office he got rid of the Reagan/Bush tax cuts RETROACTIVELY, meaning he got rid of them before they expired. The GOP screamed that the economy would collapse within a year. That year 2 million new jobs were created. As long as the Bush tax cuts are in place, the economy will remain the same. The tax cuts are the core of what is causing this whole mess.
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bob4460 Donating Member (173 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 04:28 PM
Response to Reply #3
18. The rich only invest in companiesand create jobs
so they do not have to pay taxes on that money.
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Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 11:51 AM
Response to Original message
2. Paging Bill Clinton!
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Donnachaidh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. yeah, let's page Captain Nafta
He's added so much to the solutions, right? :sarcasm:
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Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. Well he did add 23 million jobs.
Edited on Sat Sep-03-11 12:30 PM by Rex
But that might not be what you want to hear...
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Motown_Johnny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. the tech boom added jobs, Clinton shipped them overseas
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Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. Actually outsourcing started under Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.
Clinton created jobs...much to the chagrin of his critics. Clinton created a surplus while in office...much to the chagrin of his critics. Obama has done neither of these and to say Obama is better then Clinton is ridiculous, let us see what 4 more years gets us.

Clinton had his faults, but still is the best POTUS we've had since LBJ.
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tawadi Donating Member (631 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 11:53 AM
Response to Original message
4. Some staggering numbers for you
"The US has a total potential labour force of 153.7 million people, also remaining effectively unchanged during May. At the present unemployment rate of 9.1 per cent, this means that a staggering 13.9 million individuals are currently unemployed. "

http://www.blurtit.com/q469247.html
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 11:56 AM
Response to Original message
6. recommend
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progressoid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 12:06 PM
Response to Original message
8. Well, that's just fucking depressing.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
9. No demand...no jobs
Once we are in the vortex, it's hard to get out.

big-biddness is making plenty of money with their skeleton-crews and are sitting on piles of cash.

They can fire at will and replace almost anyone with a cheaper worker, so they have everyone just where they want them.

They move their money around the game-board, maximizing their own profits, and could not care less about the people without jobs..

"Small" businesses cannot end the misery, because small business (real small businesses) cannot hire all that many people, or many people at family-supporting wages.benefits.

We've grown accustomed to bubble-economics, and every emergence from the popped-bubble of the moment leaves more people in the ditch...people who will never again work for wages they had before, and need to have in order to keep buying stuff..

we are ratcheting down with every popped bubble

Until we get serious about Nafta/cafta/shafta & the sweet deals with China, we will always be on the losing side (as a society).



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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. You make some thought-provoking points...
What if we cannot return to the days of full employment? What happens to all those unemployed? I am thinking we will have no choice but to become a more socialistic society, in order to keep the fabric of our society together.
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whosinpower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #9
16. That is only half the story
In an economy - you have wealth creators, driven by manufacturing that actually makes something and sells it...you have consumers - spenders who buy the goods and or services, and you have wealth transferers - those who gamble, speculate and create exotic financial instruments to sell but which do not increase the value of said goods. Banks, financial firms, investors, hedge funds all fall into this category.

The third category are vampires - feeding off the work of the wealth creators- which really are the only ones who provide tangible real jobs to produce tangible real products.

The wealth creators have been eliminated here in favour of the vampires and a service based economy. However, a service based economy is hollow without solid manufacturing to back up the value of GDP. The wealth creators have been forced to leave for more promising lower labour costs overseas because the vampires demanded it. The vampires demanded it because they wanted higher profits to gerrymander even further bubbles and illusions which is what they thrive on.

The vampires have also posited that the US is a mature economy and there is no future for growth here - so they would rather "grow" markets that are much much larger - that being China, India and others. They wait for the chinese to embrace consumerism which will be a clear win win situation for them.

They see this development as a small bump in the road - they wait patiently while America declines. They don't care if American consumers never get back on their feet again - because they have gambled that China has far far far greater possibilities.
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sam11111 Donating Member (638 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 12:42 PM
Response to Original message
13. Private Sector moving to Third World. We must replace it w/ Co-ops, Gov, and WPA jobs
Edited on Sat Sep-03-11 12:58 PM by sam11111
Third World offers Corporatists dollaraday wages, thus high high profits.

Only the three job types in my headline will stay here.
They can produce ALL things: co ops have--

Refinery in McPherson KS
Grocery co ops
Electric co ops
Auto parts factory - Spain
Credit Unions
Insurance co op

WPA built large apt buildings, small bridges
++++++++++++++
It by itself can give us ZERO unemployment!
++++++++++++++
Good riddance to the Private Sector

(Btw, Finland, halfway to this new model, is #1 in Quality of Life index and also in press freedom)

PS 29.3 million are jobless..see site below--
National Jobs For All Coalition--- two Nobel winners at the site--


http://www.njfac.org
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OHdem10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 01:02 PM
Response to Original message
14. Even the President has said we will see Real return to normal
employment until after 2013 or 2014.

M. Zandi, Moody's. No return to anywhere near normal
employment until 2016, more like 2017.

Is this not why Bernanke was able to say he would
not make any change in interest rates for 2years.

This really appears to be a Structural Problem in
the eonomy and not the regular Boom Bust Business Cycle.
The Republicans are treating this as a regular Business
Cycle Recession and that is why their "solutions" will
will not work.
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MineralMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-03-11 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
15. If everyone who has a job and can do it went out and bought a few
American made products, hired a contractor to do something on their property, took their car in for some maintenance, and did a few other things like that that need doing, a lot of jobs would be created. It's pretty simple, really. Jobs come from demand. Create demand and the jobs will come. We have 350+ million people in this country. If everyone who could did one or more of the things I described above, jobs would be created, and in substantial numbers.

Seriously. Create some demand this week.
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