Prof Who Predicted Outcomes of All Prez Elections Since 1984 Says Obama Will Win

[amborin]

The science of predicting elections: Is Obama a sure thing in 2012

The president's poll numbers are tanking, but a mathematician with a perfect track record predicting presidential elections says Obama is still a lock

A teetering economy, high unemployment, low approval ratings: "For President Obama, the news just never seems to get any better," says Alex Parker at U.S. News. By most normal metrics, his "road to re-election may be impossibly steep." But history is actually on Obama's side, says Josh Voorhees at Slate. And "by 'history,' we mean Allan Lichtman," an American University professor who has predicted the winner in all seven presidential elections since 1984 — and whose formula also correctly IDs the winner of the 30 presidential elections before that. Lichtman's "13 Keys" predict elections by judging the recent performance of the party in the White House. (Sample questions: Did the opposition pick up congressional seats in the midterm? Is there a recession? Did the White House win any major foreign policy victories?) According to Lichtman's keys, Obama did well enough in his first term to win in 2012. How solid is this formula?

Lichtman's record speaks for itself: When Lichtman says Obama's "re-election is in the bag," pay attention, say Paul Bedard and Lauren Fox at U.S. News. His 13 Keys are eerily predictive, picking the winner years before elections and often against conventional wisdom. If the president picks up eight or more keys, he wins. By Lichtman's count, Obama has nine, with one up in the air. ....

snip

http://news.yahoo.com/science-predicting-elections-obama-sure-thing-2012-105700620.html

[ClarkUSA]

1. Good news. 24/7 Haters on both sides of the aisle will be disappointed.

[amborin]

2. presumably you wrongly imply critics on 'the left side of the aisle' are haters; they're defenders

of democratic values: protecting the interests of the working class, of the environment, of our consitutional freedoms, to name just a few of many, many democratic principles that have been eroded

those who are mesmerized by personality fail to understand what politics is about

[ClarkUSA]

7. No, I'm right. PUMA Jane Hamster Face & the GOP clients of her media company are prime examples.

baggers of all kinds are always attacking Pres. Obama because they have an agenda

[amborin]

10. Wow, Jane Hampsher has Really gotten under your skin it appears; the truth smarts, doesn't it!

[ClarkUSA]

13. Wow, you don't seem to mind PUMA Jane Hamster Face helping GOP clients via her media company, eh?

That's some "democratic values"! :sarcasm:

[amborin]

16. by that logic, how 'bout Obama appointing Repubs? Obama helps GOP Pols, that's fine by you LOL

[ClarkUSA]

18. He's not taking money from them in exchange for services like media whore PUMA Jane Hamster Face.

It's interesting how PUMA Jane's helping out the enemy with their messaging wars against Democrats is fine by her adoring fans, eh?

[amborin]

22. i think your post borders on, or equals, libel

[ClarkUSA]

23. "the truth smarts, doesn't it!"

[Mojorabbit]

34. I agree. The name calling is pretty juvenile also. nt

[scentopine]

35. Obama appoints Rich, Tax Evading Republican CEO to Lead Jobs Policy

General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt is joining the Obama administration's effort to jumpstart job creation, but prior to that he was a generous donor to GOP candidates.

The White House announced early Friday that Immelt will be the chairman of Obama's new Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, but campaign finance records show that around two-thirds of the Cincinnati native's contributions over the years have been to Republicans.

Just last cycle, Immelt dipped into his pockets to help elect GOP majorities.

According to OpenSecrets.org, Immelt gave $4,800 to Ohio Sen. Rob Portman and $4,300 to Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt.

To be clear, Immelt played the role of typical corporate donor who hedges his bets on both sides of the fence, but he has been considerably more generous to Republicans.

For instance, he sent $2,500 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on June 29. But one later he cut a $10,000 check to the National Republican Congressional Committee.

OpenSecrets finds that over the years, Immelt has given a total of $187,000 to candidates.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0111/Immelts_GOP_donations.html
-------------------------------------------

Of course he appointed the king of outsourcing to India and China, the king of CEO bonuses, the king of tax evasion, the king of destroying his companies share value - to what else? Jobs Czar.

There's a lot more where this came from. Be careful about who you are calling a whore.

[Horse with no Name]

19. The only haters are the ones that defend the indefensible

they are no better than the 29% that supported bushco no matter what.

I'd pretty much imagine that that is all that is left of the googly eyes...they are just loud and well organized. Republicans have ALWAYS been organized...even the ones that pretend they aren't republicans anymore.

[ClarkUSA]

21. The only haters are the ones who ignore the facts & spew RNC talking points/memes about Pres. Obama.

[demwing]

36. Arguing with zealots

is fun to watch, but probably a waste of time.

If the most severe Obama supporters are right, the rest of us will happily eat crow in Nov 2012. I will enjoy the crow, and remark openly about how it tastes better than any crow ever served. But only time will tell if they are right, if Obama is a shoe-in for re-election.

Here's my prediction- if President Obama does not gain re-election, it will not be admitted that he had any play in the game. The defeat will be blamed on the us - the dissatisfied left.

Which is funny, in a sad way, because we are told over and over again that we are a small minority, that we do not represent Americans in general, or even the majority of Democrats. We inflate our importance, and should encourage the President to build bridges and seek compromise, because he can't be successful with just our steam alone.

So which is it? Are the dissatisfied left a minority that should be sidelined, or are we the link that will secure the chain of his re-election?

I already know the answer, we are whatever helps shift responsibility and blame away from the President.

I take it back, it isn't funny in a sad way. It's just sad.

[BOG PERSON]

25. .

[spin]

3. Looking at Obama's current competition ...

I agree. I think it is likely that the Republicans are likely to choose Mitt Romney who has the charisma of a burned out street light. The Republicans love to run "the next in line" and Romney qualifies. Of course they might chose Rick Perry but his accent will remind too many people of Bush the Junior and his ideas will scare the hell out of everybody else with the exception of the Tea Baggers.

Of course, it would help if the economy started to improve.

[northoftheborder]

4. I want to know how he predicted 2000 election.

[Fresh_Start]

27. I looked and he picked Gore

but he said he had a lot of qualifiers on it

[Warren DeMontague]

5. Good.

Hope he's right.

[amborin]

6. good provided progressives get out there and push Obama leftward

[Warren DeMontague]

11. that's not what I said, but that would be good too.

I realize it's not the most popular position around here, but I'd still rather have this administration disappoint me than a GOP administration appall me.

[amborin]

20. it's what i said

but unlike you, apparently, the GOP policies of this administration appall me.

[Warren DeMontague]

30. Oh, please. I am not the enemy.

There are plenty of policies of this administration that appall me, too. But a Republican in the WH would be worse.

Is that lesser of 2 evils thinking? Absolutely.

[Upton]

8. Nate Silver isn't so sure....

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/despite-keys-obama-is-no-lock/

[amborin]

14. 4, 8, and 10 look particularly dicey....

[flpab]

9. much better than Bachman

I get pissed many days that he is not progressive and has not had a spine but could be a lot worse.

[ThomWV]

12. I honestly do not think Obama can win a second term, and I don't believe he's earned one either.

I don't think he can be re-elected. He will not get the youth turnout he got last time. He will not get the labor backing he did last time. Even hispanics are abandoning him. And if anyone thinks there is such thing as a swing voter they are out of their minds. Obama will not woo a single Republican vote and all he had to do was offend about 7% of his base and even John McCain matched up with Palin could beat him. It doesn't take much looking around and listening to see what has happened to his support. Much of it has evaporated and the rest is boiling.

[amborin]

15. i totally agree;

and given most of Obama's policies.....

although his NLRB appointees are apparently pro-union, so that's a not insignificant crumb

[upi402]

17. Better than President Bachman, I guess

but not significantly better than President Bush in practice.

[ThomWV]

24. That's true, but irrelevent. Bachman will never be any more than she is today, and maybe less

The batch of idiots the Republicans have in the race right now will not be around after the Convention. I don't know who they will nominate, and it may very well be a Tea Party goon, but it won't be an utter nutcase - because that's the only way they can lose, and the money that supports the Republican Party knows it.

[Motown_Johnny]

29. He won 365 to 173. He doesn't need to win as big as the first time

He just needs to win



I think the guy who beat the Clinton machine when he had very few resources at his command is not going to lose he presidential reelection bid.



The (R)s will nominate some ideologue who is unacceptable to most swing voters.


At this point I think he will win.

[Major Hogwash]

32. I think President Obama will go way over 400 next year.

The blame for stalling creating jobs in the country rests squarely on the Republican's shoulders.
Everything else, President Obama has pretty much already solved.

And the health care bill he signed into law is going to counter most of the negativity the GOP has shown against the poor.
Their elitism is out there for everyone to see.
Romney is worth almost $250 Million dollars, yet his 4 sons never even served in the military.
And he was the front runner until 2 weeks ago.

[Motown_Johnny]

33. That seems optimistic, but with the FL and OH Governors being hated by so many

I think we will see a pretty big advantage in these two states and I see no viable path for any (R) assuming we lock up FL and OH (along with the traditional Democratic states).

[GreenStormCloud]

26. Sorry, but I don't think his keys will hold up.

This election is going to turn on the economy and on jobs. Obama's approval rating on handling the economy is 26%. Consumer confidence level hit a new low yesterday. Today we learned that August has zero job growth. All economic forecaster, including Obama's are saying that the job picture won't improve.

Obama's base is angry with him and is threatening not to work for him like they did last time. The AFL-CIO has withdrawn its support from the Democratic Party and will try to build their own network.

Killing OBL caused only a minor bump in his ratings and that is already past. That is because the CIA/NSA/Military tracked down where he was and the SEALS did the operation. Obama merely said, "OK" when a plan was presented to him. He wasn't personally involved in the intel gathering, analysis, or execution. Also the memory of a victory fades fast. Bush had an approval rating of 91% after the Gulf War but lost the election a few months later.

And some of those keys are extremely subjective.

Some of the keys are still undecided. There could still be a Democratic primary challenger to Obama. If his numbers go any lower they will almost certainly attract a challenger.

Third Party. Election is still over a year away. A third-party often arises late in the game. Remember Anderson and Perot jumped in late.

Policy change. The stimulus hasn't worked and ObamaCare isn't that popular. People have to like the policy changes for them to be a positive key.

Scandal. Project Gunrunner is growing.

Charisma. Too subjective. Liberals think Obama has loads of charisma and that Perry has none. Conservatives feel just the opposite.

Much can happen in over a year, but if the economy doesn't improve greatly then Obama is in deep serious trouble.

[autorank]

28. k*r That's about right, imho

There are only two prospective nominees who are not barking at the moon mad for the Republicans - Huntsman and Romney.

It looks like Perry is the crowd favorite. That will go on until right after Gov Hair is nominated, then the true stories
will come out - the Texas economy is relatively better than most because of immigration, fair amount of illegal, and some other
items that make him totally unacceptable. It will be over then. Obama will win (if he runs).

I'm sure the professor had more empirically based analysis;)

[Major Hogwash]

31. This is very interesting. Considering that the GOP isn't backing anyone that isn't a clown in 2012.

They must have realized that they already spent all of their ammo in 2010, and have given up on taking back the White House in 2012.

Next year is just going to be more vitriol spewed at the President, but Congress is going to be up for grabs.

Charlie Cook said that the Republican candidates don't even sound legitimate when they are running around trying to appease the "no higher taxes" Tea Party Coalition.

[Little Star]

37. Wow! Big prediction...

When there is not one single Republican from their A team running and we have no viable primary challenger it doesn't take a genius to predict he will be re-elected. Doh!