My Turn: Vermont climate scientist sees Irene as turning point

[cali]

My daughter, Jenna, missed her first day of high school Wednesday. Wood­stock, where her school lies, is essentially shut down by flooding. The covered bridge in Quechee I drove across just last week is ru­ined, and the store where I bought hurricane provisions was just emerging from floodwaters. Across the state 250 roads were impass­able and more than 30 bridges were closed.

OK, Irene was no Katrina. My family is fine. But, as a builder of climate simulations that connect burning fossil fuels to destruction like Irene's, my "day job" in the "real world" and my home-life in a beautiful corner of Vermont finally collided.

Smack.

What now, Vermont? What now, World?

Elizabeth Sawin is co-director of Climate Interactive, a nonprofit organization that creates computer simulations of climate and energy policy in the U.S. and around the world. She lives in Hartland.

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http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20110901/OPINION02/109010313/My-Turn-Vermont-climate-scientist-sees-Irene-turning-point?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s

[malaise]

1. K & R

Climate change is real

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. It sure is!

[Waiting For Everyman]

3. Wouldn't it be better to make everybody energy self-sufficient

(via solar, wind, etc.) so that a grid wouldn't be necessary? It seems like Vermont already leans in that direction.

[Lorien]

23. If it's not "better" for billionaires like the Koch Brothers

government will try to keep it from happening. He who controls the world's energy controls the world, and some people love power and profit far more than they love life itself.

[Eddie Haskell]

4. I agree, but climate change isn't about one storm.

They need to redefine their 100 year flood plain and ban building within the floodplain. I also noticed that most bridges that had trouble were built over constrictions where the water had no way to go but up.

[cali]

5. You don't know Vermont's topography, do you?

What you suggest is virtually impossible here. Oh, and the author certainly didn't say that this was about one storm. But I suppose YOU know more about the subject than she does, Eddy dear.

[Javaman]

6. Then there will be more people who will be flooded out.

I'm not defending the other poster, but when he stated, on the surface, sounded like a reasonable response.

However, as you stated, he doesn't know the topography, so since you do live there, what do you suggest?

[Eddie Haskell]

8. Cali dearest, maybe I do.

You might want to check my storm damage prediction made when the storm was leaving NC. I've studied streamflow records and topography for over 40 years. That's why I predicted that the real damage from Irene would be in NE. People who build on a flood plain are asking for trouble. It's not impossible to build higher, just more expensive. Simply put, the damaged buildings met with a very predicable destiny.

[cali]

15. The last time there was flooding anywhere near this was 80 years ago

In any case, Vermont is all valleys and mountains or steep hills and its criss-crossed with rivers and streams. there is virtually no way to move all the people who live in places that potentially will flood- or all the towns. It's like saying that everyone should move off of the Outer Banks or Cape Cod.

[Eddie Haskell]

17. I merely suggested that people who lost their home don't rebuild.

in the flood plain.

[hedgehog]

20. I would suggest that the problem is that the flood plain is expanding

Most places are seeing incredible downpours more and more often. In hilly areas such as Vermont and the Catskills in New York, this means that the streams in the narrow valleys are rising to heights rarely or never seen before. When the houses that are flooding have stood safely in the same spot for over a hundred years, it's a sign of change.

[Remember Me]

22. Well said. n/t

[The Doctor.]

24. No, it's not. It's about the hundreds to thousands of *Cumulative* and unusual climatic events.

When you start adding up all of the more and more extreme and out of place events, it equals exactly what we've been predicting all along;

It's going to keep getting worse.

Last year's hurricane season was pretty extreme, but people in wingnut world don't know that. Why? Because very few of the storms made landfall in the US.

You are right, unusual weather events have always managed to occur. But not with the ever greater frequency we have been seeing.

[highplainsdem]

7. K&R

[Uncle Joe]

9. Kicked and recommended for recognizing the opportunity to adapt.

Rebuild with a transition to clean energy in mind. If a section of power line needs to be rebuilt, prepare for the smart-grid that can transmit clean energy from wind and solar. If a bridge needs to be replaced, rebuild it with a bicycle lane. If new cable needs to be laid, make sure that it equips remote homes and businesses for the interconnectivity of the digital age.

Irene didn't hit us at a time of business as usual. It arrived at the start of a massive global transition toward an efficient, low-carbon, smart economy. If we can hold onto the vision of that clean energy future then the necessary work of rebuilding could propel Vermont forward to help lead that transition.

Thanks for the thread, cali.

[Overseas]

10. K&R. I wish it were.

But we've gone through many many turning points, when we could have slowed down the effects of global warming by reducing our carbon consumption.

But our legislators were too afraid to push back against big oil. And big oil has been so crazed with sustaining its massive quarterly profits that it has fought against attempts to support alternative energy development and spend millions getting millions of Americans to pretend global warming hasn't been wreaking havoc for years already.

There's a big victory in the news-- Germany has reached the 20% mark. 20% alternative energy. Imagine that. The oil companies that we subsidize with our tax dollars have fought against even letting us match that achievement. 20 dang percent.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=1855719&mesg_id=1855719

[JuniperLea]

11. This is going to keep happening...

And get progressively worse as the years pass. I think there will be sections of the US that will become uninhabitable, by heat, rain, or flood. I fear we will lose a lot of precious shoreline, and homes in flood plains, and we will never be able to build there again. I'm sure people read this and say, well, duh! Sure, I knew this was coming, but I'm shocked at how much I've allowed myself to ignore after Katrina... emotional self-preservation, perhaps.

I am counting my blessings on the west coast... the "June Gloom" that normally shades us in the morning through the month of June has become a full summer event the past few years. When we are shaded until midday or after, there's not a lot of heat build up and we stay much cooler than our more eastern desert neighbors. Los Angeles is looking more like San Francisco or Seattle all the time. I feel truly fortunate, and starting to feel guilty about it all... those clouds sometimes build up as they move east and then dump in the midwest, causing flooding there.

Vermont is one of our most beautiful states... watching it get hit was a punch in the stomach for many of us who have a deep appreciation for the American landscape.

[dembotoz]

12. kick

[Yo_Mama]

13. I'm not impressed

Especially given the history of NE hurricanes. They are rare, but historically known.

Not good evidence at all for climate change. Things like temps and so forth are much more reliable. The author is talking her book, but she doesn't have a shred of evidence to link this storm to climate change.

New England Hurricanes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes

[Eddie Haskell]

14. I don't disagree with her recommendations, but ...

as a climatologist she knows better than to use a single, unpredictable, 100 year event as evidence for climate change. This only encourages the kind of logic the climate deniers use every time we have a blizzard.

We don't need climate change to predict events will get worse. If we keep paving over infiltration areas, what was a 100 year storm will be a 20 year event. It's just a matter of growth and time.

[Yo_Mama]

16. Well, yes

Not that rainfall such as many areas experienced wouldn't generate a major flood any time, but....

Good land management and a longer perspective is very important. We should keep that front and center.

I think in part our problem discussing such issues is that human beings tend to have a very short-term perspective. What is "normal" for the time one has been alive, or living in a place, is not really normal. These events are often normal in geological time. We go through wet/dry cycles, sometimes over centuries, and hot/cold cycles.

Is our planning adequate for the real "normal"? No - or you wouldn't have so many people building in flood zones. In the town where I am staying right now - in the NE - there were just some homes flooded for the third time in about seven years. And they are walking around talking about climate change - but the truth is, the land where those houses were built does flood about every 50 years. And they were told not to build there by the locals who had roots, but.... I guess it looked lovely at the time.

In a lot of ways, we plan to fail.

Energy usage and the rest are pieces of the pie, but a lot of this is due to shortsightedness. We're humans, we need to use our brains.

[Eddie Haskell]

18. How do people get flood insurance?

If it's government supported, maybe we need to stop providing what the private insurers won't cover.

[Yo_Mama]

21. It is

Over the years there has been a lot of debate about this.

It is stupid to build dwellings in areas in which you know there will be reiterated cycles of destruction.

On the other hand, do we just abandon areas like most of NO? Once the buildings are there, it's hard to make the choice to walk away from them. I think we should adopt a policy of reimbursing the owners for the loss, but refusing to provide flood insurance if they rebuild in the flood plain. Also we should stop providing flood insurance in many of these areas for new building.

But you have to realize that there is a lot of money behind this. Entire developments were build in CA in flood plains. Some of them still empty....

[swilton]

19. When given lemons

make lemonade!

[Sherman A1]

25. And previous events where not?

I am truly sorry for the devastation and losses to the people of the North East, however the signs have been well in place for a very long time now. It was not just this one storm but much, much more.