A few comments on Allan Lichtman's never wrong Keys to the White House model

[bluestateguy]

This was up on Daily Kos and DU yesterday:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/30/1011993/-Professor-with-perfect-record-of-punditry:-Obama-will-defeat-GOP-nominee,-whomever-it-is

My observations:

1. Lichtman's model only predicts who wins the popular vote. Not the margin and not the electoral vote. We have had four men (Andrew Jackson, Sam Tilden, Benjamin Harrison and Al Gore*) who won the popular vote but not the electoral vote.

2. Some of the categories are slippery, subjective and impressionistic. How does he measure charisma in categories 12 and 13? What bar has to be crossed for a major foreign policy victory to win on key #11?

3. Lichtman reserves the right to revise his model right up to the day before the election. He will not hesitate to do so if events dictate or he just needs to get his model in line with which ever way the wind is blowing.

4. Having said that, I think his model is, at this time, fairly cautious. He still has both economy keys turned against Obama, and the charisma key is also turned against Obama (it was turned in his favor in 2008). Obama can lose one more key and still be the favorite for reelection. If the entire health care bill is killed by the USSC, that could turn key #7 against Obama and then he has no more room to spare.


* Yeah, I know. Some other time, OK.

[bluestateguy]

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[bluestateguy]

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[bluestateguy]

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