Official 5 AM EDT National Hurricane Center forecast discussion

[steve2470]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/280842.shtml

000
WTNT44 KNHC 280842
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT DRY AIR IS NOW WRAPPING INTO
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF IRENE...AND THE CYCLONE IS
SLOWLY BEGINNING TO FILL AS MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP TO
958 MB. BASED ON DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA SHOWING THAT SURFACE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE GRADUAL WEAKENING
OF THE CYCLONE...THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND...WITH
34-KT WINDS OCCURRING FROM NEW YORK CITY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH UNTIL IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...
AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODEST CONVECTION TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS.
SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL AS IRENE BECOMES A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/16...AS IRENE CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IRENE WILL MERGE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED...BUT HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT IN
THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH 24 HOURS.
AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET.

NOTE...MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE
SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH
AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE BUILDINGS COULD EXPERIENCE
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. WINDS AT THE
30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 39.2N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 41.8N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 46.0N 70.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/1800Z 50.6N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/0600Z 54.0N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z 58.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0600Z 61.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 62.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[steve2470]

1. " ...IRENE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY NEAR LITTLE EGG INLET... "

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#IRENE

[krispos42]

2. It's going to go right over me!

That longitude for 1800Z is dead-on! So, maybe 1500Z the eye hits me, that's, um 1pm EDT. COOL!

[steve2470]

3. "...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NEW YORK CITY... "

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#IRENE

8:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 28
Location: 40.3°N 74.1°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNE at 25 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb

[kdmorris]

4. And even though, last night, there was almost no chance of development

Tropical Storm Jose forms in the middle of the Atlantic and heads for Bermuda. It should follow Irene off to the East

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281213
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

CORRECTED FOR TIME OF WEAKENING

...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMS NEAR BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[originalpckelly]

5. Bermuda is right in the path of it.

There is another area that just came right off of Africa which looks like it may be becoming a cyclone. It has a 40% percent chance of doing so.

[malletgirl02]

6. Bermuda

Hopefully it dissolves before it hits Bermuda.

[originalpckelly]

8. The rain is on the backside of it.

It seems to be pretty dry oddly right where the swirl is.

[originalpckelly]

7. You can really see the sucker on this image:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

[kdmorris]

9. Yeah, watching that one closely...

Kind of feeling a bit burned out on hurricane watching. At least it's 2 weeks out.

It is the peak of hurricane season, after all. Depends on what the ridge does when Irene passes. If Irene/Jose leave a huge weakness in the ridge and can't fill back in before 92L gets there, then 92L should be a fish. (Storms are given designations when the NHC starts watching them. This one is 92L, Jose was 91L. They keep reusing the same 10 numbers all year, so 92L was used before in May when they were watching another potential storm. The L desginates an Atlantic Seaboard (including the Gulf of Mexico and Carribbean) "invest")

[originalpckelly]

10. They say this one will just go north to Bermuda and nowhere else.

When it passes over Bermuda it will be a TS but on the other side it will die off and turn back into just a minor low. So it's no biggie for the east coast.

There is invest 92 which doesn't look as well organized, but is so far out and in a position that it might be able to swing to the US, but the models just aren't very accurate for it right now. Some of them have it making a 90 degree turn north.

[kdmorris]

11. Much depends on how fast it strengthens and what Irene does to the subtropical ridge

92L that is. Jose will likely hit Bermuda as a weak TS and then dissipate. There is not much convection with Jose at all, so wind is the main thing. And Bermuda is used to storms.

92L.. could come here, could go north, could still go west into Mexico. The models only go out 5 days or so and there's nothing 5 days from 92L. I'm just kind of burned out on Tropical systems right now. I'll look at it again in a few days to see what's going on.