Hurricane Irene: Nothing Can Stop It Now

[democrat2thecore]

Intensifying as of 1:26am EDT Friday morning. There's nothing to stop this storm and the jet stream makes this a certain hit on major NE cities. Many different models, but now NONE of them show anything less than an extreme threat to the Atlantic seaboard. In other words, there's no more "if" about it. Take precautions and take all warnings and evacs seriously. Pay no attention to traditional hurricane categories - a Cat 1 storm in the upper Atlantic is roughly equivalent (in destructive terms) to a Cat 3 in the Gulf states, a Cat 2 would be very close to a Cat 5. A seasoned hurricane watcher has said within the past hour, "This phrase has been so terribly overused that I hate to use it, but I have to: this is shaping up to be 'the perfect storm'. The conditions in the water off the Atlantic seaboard, the torrential rains, the wind field, it's truly looking like a storm of a lifetime."

[ohheckyeah]

1. Well shit.

Lots of people are still squirrely from the earthquake. This really isn't going to help.

Be safe everybody!

[Bluebear]

3. That says it.

[democrat2thecore]

2. Latest Maps (within past 10 minutes)

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. Good nooz, the millibars

have not gone further down

2:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 28.7°N 77.3°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#IRENE

Bad nooz that track...

[democrat2thecore]

5. The 942 mb is already that associated with a Cat 4....that's why...

We can all throw out the traditional categories. Upper Atlantic hurricanes with this kind of low pressure is equal to Gulf hurricanes that would rate Cat 4 and even 5. This is what, more than anything, makes this storm so dangerous. You're right, it's good it's not going down, but 942 is already very low.

[DLnyc]

9. Actually, I think Cat 4 is Cat 4

Categories are determined by wind speed. Destruction is determined by wind speed. Latitude doesn't change that.

Hyping stuff doesn't necessarily make people safer.

[democrat2thecore]

10. Wrong - and here's why

This is why SSHS is under scrutiny - more on that in a second. The bottom line: The destructive capabilities of Cat 1-5 storms are different when you have unusual circumstances. A Cat 1 storm in NYC is - destructively - equivalent (roughly) to a Cat 4 storm hitting a Gulf state. Different building standards, different soil, etc. This is an unusual storm for the location. Destructive capability is more important than any category number. That is why it's important to not judge the strength of Irene by the traditional SSHS ratings. This is the very reason I support the move to the proposed alternatives of the Hurricane Intensity Index or the Hurricane Hazard Index. Either one is based on more scientific measurements than the Saffir-Simpson scale.

edit: I meant to address your mention of "hyping" a storm. Yes, it happens. A lot. Too often. This is not one of those times.

[malaise]

16. Wrong

Normally pressure down means intensity up. I watched the experts discussing this last night and pointing out that it is strange that the pressure was dropping but Irene hadn't intensified simultaneously. They anticipated that she would strengthen.

[TheWraith]

6. Technically, nothing could stop it before.

It's a hurricane. They're not known for being easily manipulated. ;)

[democrat2thecore]

7. Oh, sure it could have.

For example, the jet stream might not have dipped as far south as it looks like it's going to, pressure rises, dramatic turns (small turns won't matter now and it's really too late for anything to cause a dramatic turn east). So, technically, many things could have stopped Irene. At this point, it's beyond return, so to speak, there is nothing in water temps, jet stream, land barriers, etc. to stop it. It's a major event of possibly epic proportions, but it wasn't until about 11pm Thursday did it look like there was nothing that could happen to stop this hurricane from causing dramatic damage along the coast.

[kdmorris]

15. Jet streams don't dip south.

The trough that causes the weakness in the ridge could certainly not have caused that weakness in the ridge, but then Florida would have gotten hit by a CAT 4 storm, instead of it turning north and destroying the Bahamas. There was still no stopping it.

Dude, every time you post, it is obvious that you have no idea what you are talking about.

[democrat2thecore]

17. Oh. uh huh....

Do you have any idea what you're talking about? Dips in the jet stream are what cause the troughs you're talking about! I used the directional term "south" as it's a practical way for people to understand these dips as it relates to weather patterns in our own country. This is done every day and it certainly doesn't mean I don't know what I'm talking about. I certainly do.

If you don't think conditions can "stop" a hurricane, then explain to me why every tropical cyclone in history is...well...history? If your problem is my being colloquial - lighten up. This is DU.

edited @ 6:54am to be a bit kinder to KD Morris.

[kdmorris]

32. Stipulated

You are correct that they cause it to move the trough along.

I apologize for being irritated with you. It's a symptom of the amount of irritation that I feel at the media for acting like this. When we were still in the 3 day cone for Irene, the NHC stated that the only reason we were still in the cone is because the GFDL (a very respected model) insisted on a westward path for Irene. Because I'm a weather junkie...I knew that was the reason we were in the 3 day cone, but no hurricane watch was issued. All other credible models at that time had this storm turning north at almost exactly the time it turned north.

But our media presented it to us as "OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE... We're in the THREE DAY CONE!"

Next time a storm comes near us (who knows where TD10 goes, though the models indicate that it will likely be a fish)... they will do the same thing, but people stop listening after a while. If every storm is going to "KILL US ALL", people get to the point that they don't believe anymore and they stop preparing.

Then a Hurricane Frances and Jeanne come along 3 weeks apart and people suffer terribly because they didn't evacuate (they didn't believe the media after all the other "IT'S GOING TO KILL US ALL" years) and they didn't prepare, thinking that the media was just doing the "boy that cries wolf" thing again.

But I realize that it's not your fault and I shouldn't have taken it out on you.

[ProdigalJunkMail]

11. 'tis true n/t

[EstimatedProphet]

33. Just what I wanted to put.

[democrat2thecore]

8. BTW, this whole high tide thing is something that's just plain bizarre

If you had to have all the chips for that 'perfect storm' it would happen at New Moon which causes high tides. Maximum tides are expected, in almost a quirky stroke of bad luck, at precisely the time Irene is expected to batter the Atlantic seaboard on Sat/Sun. It's almost uncanny.

[kdmorris]

12. Why the hyperbole? There has been no "if" about it for days

As of 5 AM... not intensifying as rapidly and should not reach CAT 4 status before landfall.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS NOT QUITE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB WERE 109 KT ABOUT 75 N MI
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS
REPORTED FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 87
KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 95
KT

You cannot say "pay no attention to traditional hurricane categories". That is ignorant at best. The Categories have meaning and it's not "equivalent to a CAT 3". In fact, destructive potential of hurricanes in the Gulf is much greater than any hurricanes in the Atlantic because of the potential for extreme inland storm surges. In the Gulf states, they don't have the Atlantic shelf to protect them, so technically, storms in the Gulf states are worse as far as flooding and storm surge than they can ever be in the Atlantic states.

People in the Mid-Atlantic states do need to watch Irene and prepare, but seriously, the hyperbole is just bullshit. There has never been anything to "stop this storm". No sheer, warm water. The models have been in COMPLETE agreement with just slight shifts east or west for approximately 3 days now. Unfortunately, the slight shift to the west has now put the Outer Banks in jeopardy.

The storm of a lifetime? Tell that to the people who had to ride out Fran or Isobel in NC or or Hugo in SC or any of the other truly historic storms "of a lifetime". (Andrew anyone? Katrina? Rita? Ike? Wilma? Frances? Jeanne? Charley? Dennis? Ivan?)

People that live with hurricanes every year do take these seriously... do you think you need to post this hyperbolic crap? "A seasoned hurricane watcher"? Really???

Edited to add: by your hyperbolic reasoning, TD 10 out there is already a CAT 2 I guess?

[jbnow]

18. Maybe the storm of a lifetime for those further north

The part of the east coast that might be use to "nor'easters" that need a lot of shoveling... but not to hurricanes

And maybe a storm of a lifetime description just due to the large number of people that will be affected in these densely populated areas.

My sister is planning on making no preparations because she is disgusted by the hype there in Philadelphia.
Let's hope this is being overhyped. If nothing else I don't want to hear the right wing blather on about the sins of the liberals bring on God's fury.

[Harmony Blue]

20. Phily is near the coast

so this a serious threat.

[kdmorris]

28. I am not saying it's not a serious threat

I'm saying that people are being irresponsible when they start acting like the entire East Coast will fall into the ocean.

It is serious and it is dangerous and you should certainly listen to any evacuation orders you are given. But the media is doing a disservice to all the future storms that might come by saying this one is "the one to end all hurricanes". People stop listening after a while.

[kdmorris]

26. That's the problem I have with the hype

When year after year, they say "this is the storm of the century" and then, at the last minute, it veers away, or it hits, but it's not that bad, people stop preparing or don't take it seriously.

Yes, there will be a lot of flooding and a lot of property damage and people should take it seriously. But to set it up as this years "Storm of the Century" (Hurricane Earl 2010 was also hyped the same way) just does a disservice to those who may be affected by future storms.

When Irene was still predicted to hit South Florida (where I live), it was only in the cone because the GFDL was insistent that it was coming here when the other models had already turned north. The NHC didn't want to say "all clear" until the models were in agreement (which is smart). But the news around here...the OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE attitude was very prevalent.

I just think there has to be a better way for the media to responsibly report the actual risk.

[democrat2thecore]

19. You have just shown your ignorance.

There is most definitely differences and equivalencies with SSHS. Why do you think there are the proposals for alternatives like the Hurricane Intensity Index or the Hurricane Hazard Index?

The potential of a "storm of a lifetime" is very real. It's not hyperbole. We can't yet compare Irene to Katrina, Ike, Rita, Charley or any other storms in history to say that she is not.

Your rude, profane, and immature responses to my posts are unwarranted. Just ignore my thread and forget my "hyperbole." You need a cup of coffee - or something.

[Bragi]

24. Yes, those responses were rude and unwarranted

Do continue on democrat2thecore. You seem to know what you are talking about.

May I ask if you are credentialed in some relevant way? (Just wondering, though you've no obligation to respond.)

[kdmorris]

31. Yeah, I'm ignorant of hurricane threats and hurricanes in general

As far as what I think of the Hurricane Intensity Index/Hurricane Hazard Index, I would be completely supportive of changing the way that we categorize hurricanes. If nothing else, hurricanes like Floyd, Mitch, Katrina, Wilma and Rita have taught us that saying "this is a CAT 5 storm" doesn't really do justice to how bad it might be. When Katrina still had 185 mph winds, saying she was a CAT 5 didn't really express HOW bad it COULD be. I mean, CAT 5 is just 155+ but 155 mph is a hell of a lot different than 185.

I KNOW that Irene isn't Katrina, Ike, Rita, Charley... it seemed like you were saying that more than I am.

[kick-ass-bob]

35. unfortunately, everything is the [fillintheblank] of a lifetime.

this is no more a storm of a lifetime than Fran, Floyd, Hugo, or whatever else there is.

All hurricanes that make landfall are extremely devastating in one way or another. Andrew flattened towns with the winds. Floyd drowned them off the map. Fran knifed through a state, and Katrina nearly swallowed a major city forever. All these have happened since 1992, so my son has been alive for all but one. A short life to have four 'storms of a lifetime.'

The hype is what is not necessary. Hurricanes bring enough without any hype. They are dangerous and powerful and deadly. Precautions must be taken. But my god, please lets stop trying to outdo the last one just because the next one is coming.

[kdmorris]

38. I wish I could rec a response...

There are probably dozens of people sitting within a few miles of me who freaked out due Hurricane Irene when it was going to "wipe Southeast Florida off the map forever" and bought hundreds of dollars worth of stuff that they couldn't afford in the hope that they would survive.

Next storm that comes our way... their mentality will be "won't be fooled again" and then they may actually need all the stuff they are hurriedly trying to take back today so that they can pay the rent next week.

The NHC said with EACH discussion that the only reason we were still in the cone was because one of the respected models refused to turn the storm north (for whatever reason) and they didn't want to irresponsibly say "all clear" if it was the one that was doing best with this storm. The media never told the people of South Florida that there was a very low chance that Hurricane Irene would actually come here. I guess that doesn't get the ratings they need.

[Strelnikov_]

41. Is the Hurricane Intensity Index related to the ICE (Integrated Cyclone Energy)

concept forwarded by Kerry Emanuel (ACE as NHC calls it)?

An energy based rating system makes much more sense, as the damage caused by tropical cyclones seems to be more closely related to total energy versus maximum wind speed (re: Ike).

[democrat2thecore]

55. Sorry, just now saw your question

Similar to ACE, but includes even more factors. But kinetic energy is an important factor in the proposed HII. There are several alternative replacements for the SSHS and public perception of tropical storms is the biggest reason why. Read the controversial back and forth in this thread. Perfect example. This storm might be the catalyst to finally move forward.

I can't recommend this highly enough:
http://www.weather.gov/mdl/seminar/Presentations/April_18_2006.pdf
This paper presents the case for an alternative to Saffir–Simpson as well as any I have ever read.

[kdmorris]

62. "Controversial back and forth in this thread. Perfect example."

No it isn't. We aren't taking exception to Hurricane Indexes. People took exception to your characterization of this being the "storm of a lifetime"/"the perfect storm" and pointed out that the media always says it's the storm of a lifetime. If you were to go simply and directly off of what the National Hurricane Center is saying, there is absolutely no basis for your statements. (and in fact, saying nothing can stop it isn't true either, since the dry air that got sucked into the storm has weakened (stopped) it pretty nicely). There will still be storm surge and flooding, and certainly the Outer Banks is going to feel some wind, but it's not going to knock everyone's house to the ground.

Until and if they ever change the way they classify hurricanes, saying that an upper Atlantic storm is roughly equivalent to something much worse on the same scale is misinformation. The classifications that they currently use can't be used in that fashion. The thing that is getting people a little irritated is that we don't use those classifications right now, so for you to say that it would be much worse on this HII scale that we don't currently use, with absolutely no data or basis to back that statement up, is kind of irritating, yes. People need to listen to what their local Disaster Management people are saying... prepare, evacuate if you are in an evacuation zone and don't listen to the hype. Because I GUARANTEE you that if another storm heads this way later in this year or even next year, people will die because they will not believe that they need to listen next time. That is the net result of everyone saying that it's going to be way worse than it is.

While I do support the NHC brainstorming and trying to think of a way to come up with an alternative classification, there are issues with this presentation and issues with them trying to determine a method of more accurately determining Hurricane Intensity Potential. Since a hurricane can hit multiple places at one time, they would have to keep changing the Hurricane Intensity potential. Anything that approaches the Gulf Coast or Hispaniola is going to have more damage potential than a storm that hits the Atlantic Seaboard. So... in the case of Irene, what would have happened is that she would have one classification approaching Puerto Rico and, as soon as she came off Puerto Rico, get bumped way up and then back down going over the Bahamas.

Then there is the perception that they speak of. If you change the way you classify storms, people will believe that a storm with 155 mph winds "isn't that bad" because this alternative measurement of intensity potential isn't the highest ever on the scale. People are familiar with the Saffir-Simpson classifications, so they tend to act when they hear "CAT 5" or "CAT 4", especially if they've been through a storm with that "category" before and lost. (For example, Wilma was a Cat 5 while out in the Gulf, but was only a CAT 2 when she came through South Florida. But it messed up a lot of people who had been through Frances and Jeanne the year before - BUT it hadn't been as bad as they thought it was going to be. Those of us in Palm Beach County, who lost our roofs and electricity and porches during Hurricanes Jeanne and Frances prepared for Wilma)

While I'm pleased that you are an advocate for changing the classifications to keep people safer, it doesn't seem that you are really thinking through some of the issues that they have with changing the classifications and why they (the NHC, NOAA) haven't already changed them. If anything was going to be the catalyst to move it forward, 2005 would have been (this presentation was given in 2006) as we had three of the Top Ten most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record that year. (Katrina, Rita, Wilma - with Wilma being the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin).

[Strelnikov_]

39. "That is ignorant at best."

"the hyperbole is just bullshit."

"post this hyperbolic crap? "A seasoned hurricane watcher"? Really???"


Guess the "Personal attacks, insults, name-calling, or questioning the character or motives of other DU members;" guideline is out the window also.

[kdmorris]

44. Read all the posts before responding to one?

I already apologized to him/her for that and explained my frustration/irritation with the way these storms are portrayed by the media.

But thanks for popping in to say hello.

ETA: It's post #32, in case you don't want to look through the whole thread.

[democrat2thecore]

54. Just FYI...

Notice we're hearing today from almost all of the forecasters that it's important not to put much stock into the SSHS categories with this storm. They spent a good five minutes on CNN explaining that the destructive power is what's important and that includes much more than wind speed. "Too much attention and air time is going to the Saffir–Simpson scale with this storm. It's equivalent to a much stronger category storm in its potential for destruction."

This storm may be the catalyst to finally move away from SSHS.

[kdmorris]

63. That is the media... that is the hype I speak of.

The National Hurricane Center is saying no such thing and they are the ones that do this for a living, every year. In a perfect world, the media will pass along correct and factual information from the National Hurricane Center and not just think about their ratings.

Again, I say, if 2005 didn't move us away from it, Irene sure as hell isn't going to. (Read #62)

[underpants]

13. Two high pressure systems are pinning it on the coast

[JHB]

14. Not even Pat Robertson?

What we need is a Rick Perry Prayerpalooza!

Calling all "special link to the Lord" people! Time to get off your asses and link away!

Blaming of gays and abortion for Irene starts in five, four, three, two....

[TBF]

21. Be safe guys (and gals) -

will be thinking of you down here. Just ask if you have any questions about preparations.

[geomon666]

22. Yes, please take precautions.

If you are in the tracking cone of the storm, be prepared to be without power for at least a week.

[Harmony Blue]

23. Hurricane warning zone = High probability of area being hit

Hurricane watch zone = Could go either way, meaning upgraded to hurricane warning or hurricane watch is dropped.

[kick-ass-bob]

25. A lot has to do with timing. They don't offer up warnings until

24 or 36 hours out (can't remember, and not going to double check).

[kdmorris]

36. 36 hours for warnings, 48 hours for watches n/t

[Beer is God]

27. As if something actually could...

:eyes:

[Sparkly]

29. Yes, something actually could.

Storms change direction, dissipate over land, break up, etc.

But thank you for the insight.

[kick-ass-bob]

30. Straight line winds shear off the top of hurricanes all the time.

Here's some education:

http://www.wunderground.com/education/shear.asp


There is no wind shear with this storm, so it is staying together nicely (well, from the storm's standpoint, anyways)

[kdmorris]

34. To be perfectly fair

If it had hit across the mountains of Hispaniola instead of skirting the coast, it likely would have been disrupted enough to stop it (though the chance of regeneration was still good. Depends on whether the LLC was completely sheared off or just displaced). Hispaniola has stopped a lot of storms... but with an extreme loss of life so that I never "wish" Hispaniola would stop them.

But other than that... nothing human can stop them.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

37. I lived through Hurricane Bob

Might not have heard of it, because it doesn't fit the media narrative of THE NORTHEAST HASN'T HAD A HURRICANE SINCE EVERYONE GOT KILLED IN '38. It made first landfall in Newport as a CAT 2. The eye came right over my house in a low lying area. Guess what? It really wasn't that bad.

I also lived through Gloria, which was slightly worse than Bob, and probably closer to this storm as far as path.

Now if I were on the Jersey Shore, I'd get out of dodge.

[Name removed]

40. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TBF]

42. Have you been through a hurricane?

No we don't know what it will do, sometimes they turn, but it is better to be prepared. At least with this kind of storm we can prepare, with Tornadoes and Earthquakes you don't even have that.

A little empathy goes a long way.

[Name removed]

43. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kick-ass-bob]

47. Coming from a poster named after an armegeddon comet...

this amuses me much.

:D

[chrisa]

50. I have an idea. It's going to be hurricane-y

I have to assume, since it has the properties of a hurricane, it will blow cows and plank boards around.

The current path puts the hurricane right on top of where I live. No joke. :banghead:

[Strelnikov_]

51. "Drama queen much?" from what posted this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1818621

[Zorra]

45. Maybe Rick Perry can get God to make it stop raining.

Like he did in Texas.

[Safetykitten]

46. Uh, you think so? Sincerely, Baby Jesus.

[chrisa]

48. I can stop it! (Puts on red cape and flies into the hurricane)

Take that sucker! :P

[kick-ass-bob]

49. I blew to the south and east 2 days ago. That's why

the track has shifted just a bit.

Dammit. I should have blown more :cry:

[chrisa]

52. We could try luring it out to sea with tasty snacks...

What do hurricanes like to eat?

[kick-ass-bob]

53. apparently they like candy canes for dessert.

http://www.google.com/search?q=what+do+hurricanes+like+to+eat

[democrat2thecore]

56. UPDATE: 4:20am ET Saturday Morning

From Stu Ostro:

"The latest as of this hour: Very good news in that Irene is now a Category 1, which is much better than a Cat 3 or 4. However ... the central pressure is unusually low for a Cat 1, indicative of the "pressure gradient" being spread out & Irene being an exceptionally large tropical cyclone in size. Still multiple threats: huge waves; potential for widespread tree damage & power outages; excessive rainfall and significant flash flooding, esp. where the ground is already saturated in the Northeast."

This is a dangerous storm. Cat 1? - forget the categories. As long as the torrential rains continue and the wide wind field guarantees hours of heavy rains whipping through the coastal cities this has potential for extreme destruction.



The eye is once again becoming very evident:



BE SAFE!

[ellenrr]

57. What is the "eye" of the hurricane?

I know it is the center, and it has some meaning, but what exactly is happening in the eye in meterological terms?

thanks.

[kdmorris]

58. The eye is the area in the center of a hurricane that has no severe winds

They can be cleared out and very visible (usually seen in very powerful storms - Category 2 or higher, with wind speeds in excess of 96 mph).

From Wikipedia:
The eye is a region of mostly calm weather found at the center of strong tropical cyclones. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area and typically 30–65 km (20–40 miles) in diameter. It is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering thunderstorms where the most severe weather of a cyclone occurs. The cyclone's lowest barometric pressure occurs in the eye, and can be as much as 15% lower than the atmospheric pressure outside the storm.

[kdmorris]

59. Discussion from the National Hurricane Center 5 AM ET

Looks like dry air "stopped it". Bolded area indicates that Irene has weakened significantly and the biggest threat now is storm surge to coastal areas (where no one should be right now, anyway) and rainfall.

Note: to convert from knots (KT) to mph, so they have reduced the wind speed based on measurements from the recon plane to roughly 86.308 mph.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270857
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL RADAR DATA SHOW THAT IRENE HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN THE RADAR DATA.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST
OF IRENE IS STARTING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUES TO OBSERVE 90-100 KT
WINDS AT 700 MB OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE SFMR HAVE ONLY BEEN 70-75 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 952 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/12. IRENE IS WEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND. AFTER 48 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE CORE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LAND INTERACTION...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRENE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE U.S.
EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE WITH A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW
ENGLAND. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE NEW
ENGLAND LANDFALL...WITH IRENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM 48-120 HR.

THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS DECREASED TO THE
POINT THAT WE WILL BE REVERTING TO THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 34.1N 76.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 35.7N 75.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0600Z 38.4N 74.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1800Z 41.9N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0600Z 46.3N 69.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/0600Z 54.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 57.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 58.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cwydro]

60. Just a bad blow now. nt

[DCBob]

61. Looks like Irene is stopping itself.. she's a petering out.

It will be TS soon and by the time it reaches NYC it will be nothing more than a bad rain storm.. probably less of an event than the 10 inch rains the city had a couple of weeks ago.