Jon Lee Anderson: Five Rules of Thumb for Libya

[EFerrari]

For those who might be feeling bewildered by the news reports coming out of Libya, here are a few things to keep in mind, gleaned from observations of its evolving conflict over the past seven months.

1. Assume Nothing Is as It Seems

When the rebels swept virtually unopposed into Tripoli, Qaddafi’s son and heir apparent, Seif el-Islam, was reported to have been arrested. Within a day, we learned that this was false; not only was he not in custody, he was moving around the supposedly liberated capital, openly flaunting his freedom and taunting the rebels, saying they had been lured into a trap. His father, meanwhile, was nowhere to be seen, still at large, and around the city his forces had reemerged and were fighting back—even as, the next day, rebels were entering his compound. Suddenly, Qaddafi’s endgame had acquired a postscript, and it seemed he was writing it.

How was this possible? Next rule:

2. Qaddafi Is a Desert Fox

In his forty-two years in power, Muammar Qaddafi has presented himself as many things to many people: as a self-styled socialist liberator, as North Africa’s ultimate Bedouin seer; even as the flamboyant, berobed would-be king of Africa. To many, at home and around the world, Qaddafi is a savant and a buffoon, his long rule and global meddling made possible by oil money and a brutish gang of paid-for enforcers. There is some truth in all of these assessments. But more than anything else, Qaddafi is first and foremost a devilishly cunning survivor who, when bribery and co-option have not been possible, has consistently outsmarted his enemies using deceit and treachery. These are his most distinctive trademarks on the battlefield, and they have been present during these last months of warfare.

In mid-March, after two weeks of rapid battlefield gains toward the rebel’s provisional capital of Benghazi, and on the very eve of threatened military action by NATO forces, Qaddafi declared a unilateral cessation of military activity. He appeared on Libyan TV to say how much he loved the people of Benghazi and wanted to do things for them; how, essentially, all he wanted was peace and love. At that same moment, as it turned out, he was moving his armored columns rapidly under cover of darkness to attack Benghazi. By dawn the next morning they had penetrated its western edges, taking the rebels entirely by surprise, and a bloody but fortunately short-lived battle ensued. Qaddafi’s forces were beaten back, and NATO’s planes and missiles finally kicked into action, saving Benghazi, its rebels, and, ultimately, the Libyan revolt, at the eleventh hour-and-counting. But his tactics illustrate the next rule.

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