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The fact of the matter is that the Democratic party is a coalition party, a Big Tent party. Though that makes for an uncomfortable relationship at times, when it works, as with the '08 elections, it really works well.
But unlike the 'Pugs, who issue marching orders and know their minions will automatically step into line, a Big Tent party requires careful care and maintenance.
Part of that care and maintenance means that each group that makes up the Big Tent needs to have a bone thrown to it once in awhile. Legislation that is specifically targeted at keeping that group happy and coming back to the voting booth for more. FDR and other great Democrats in the past knew this, and worked the system well.
Yet what we have seen in the past few decades is a Democratic party that increasing seems to want to transform the Big Tent party into a rigid top down party like the 'Pugs, a party where the leadership issues marching order and the rank and file comply, with no kvetching allowed.
Over the past couple of decades groups like the anti-war folks, the liberal base, teachers, the LGBT community and others have felt that not only are they being neglected, but are actually coming under attack by the leaders they worked hard to get elected. For instance, not only has there been no new legislation helping teachers, but now this administration is putting teachers and public education in the crosshairs with Race To The Top. Same with the LGBT community under Clinton, who instead of advancing their civil rights, signed into law the regressive measures of DADT and DOMA, measures that still haven't been fully reversed. Anti-war folks watch more wars erupt and innocents die, unions watch their influence slip, and the left in general gets to listen to an ongoing drumbeat of derision from this administration as it, and the party in general, move ever more to the right.
The weakness of the Big Tent party is that you do have to keep every faction within that tent satisfied, at least a bit, make them feel welcome and feel that their best interests lie with the party. But if groups don't feel that, then the fact of the matter is that they stay home. I can't blame them, and neither should you. Why should you vote for a party, any party, that is not only doesn't seem to give a damn about your concerns, but is, in many cases, actively involved in making your particular situation worse?
That is what we're seeing now, various groups and factions within the Big Tent feeling dissatisfied with their treatment are becoming demanding and even belligerent in the face of what Democrats and this administration are doing. Given the legislation, deals, and actions of both Congress and the Obama administration over the past three years, this was bound to occur. Obama may be the master of the compromise(though frankly I don't see it), but he is certainly a failure so far at leading a Big Tent party. As a president you might get away with the benign neglect of a faction or few within the party, but when you start enacting policies hostile to one or more of those groups, or coming out and berating them, that simply proves that you don't really know how things work.
Now Obama has a year left in which to correct this error, and plenty of ability to do so. He could fire Duncan say, and abandon RTTT. He could truly start ending our military commitments, sooner rather than at vague future dates. He could push to remedy the situation surrounding DOMA, both through the court system and through Congress. He can do all of this, and more, and if he did, he would be a shoe-in for reelection.
Or he can continue to play this game of Grand Compromiser, moving himself, his policies and his party ever more towards the right. He could, as part of one of his deals, slash into Social Security, or Medicare, cut funding for Education, keep the troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, etc. etc.
By doing so, he will continue to antagonize various groups in the Big Tent, groups that he needs for reelection. He can gain soul satisfaction by continuing to publicly dress down the left. But if he does, he will not be reelected, because those groups will stay home next year, seeing no need to support him or other Democrats. It could very well turn out to be a Democratic bloodbath.
And if it is, the sole responsibility will lie with Obama, for he will have fatally failed to master the art of being the leader of a Big Tent party using the tactics of Big Tent politics.
It's that simple, and it is Obama's choice. Let's hope he chooses wisely.
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