Polls: Wisconsin State Senate Recalls Down To The Wire

[RandySF]

A new round of Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling (D) numbers for the Wisconsin recalls, conducted over the past weekend in four out of the six Republican-held seats on the ballot Tuesday, show these contests headed down to the wire. Democrats have a clear lead in one race, Republicans in another, and the other two in statistical dead heats.

However, there is a very important caveat to any polls of these races: There is simply no standard statistical model or frame of reference for these very unusual mass recalls. As such, no prediction is really safe, and election-watchers just have to wait until the votes are counted Tuesday night. Everything will ride on the parties' turnout operations.

In the 32nd district, Democratic challenger Jennifer Shilling leads GOP state Sen. Dan Kapanke by 54%-43%, beyond the ±3.4% margin of error. Meanwhile in the 10 district, GOP state Sen. Sheila Harsdorf leads Democrat Shelly Moore by 54%-42%, outside the 2.7% margin of error.

In two other races, GOP state Sen. Randy Hopper has a 49%-48% edge over Democrat Jessica King in the 10th district, well inside the ±2.7% margin of error; and in the 14th District, GOP state Sen. Luther Olsen is ahead of Democrat Fred Clark by 50%-47%, with a ±2.8% margin of error.


http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/08/polls-wisconsin-state-senate-recalls-down-to-the-wire.php?ref=fpblg

[elocs]

1. Turnout is vital. Democrats should be much more motivated to get out and vote.

It should be a nice summer's day tomorrow here in Wisconsin and it should be easy for the less motivated to find something other to do that to vote.

Everybody votes! No excuses!

[MrSlayer]

2. I'll be surprised if they're able to turn any of those seats over.

I do not trust the election system nor do I trust people to know what is best for them. This should be a no-brainer clean sweep but I'm not optimistic. I would very much like to be wrong about this.

[JDPriestly]

3. And Obama is Missing In Action.

He does not seem to care whether Democrats are or are not elected to state legislatures.

But he does expect all of us peons down here to get out and work on his campaign.

Mr. President, that is not how this thing works.

[dpbrown]

4. +1

Where's the bully pulpit, or are union rights next on the federal chopping block as well?

[PeaceNikki]

6. And I am glad he's not involved. This is *our* fight. The national Democrats fuck this shit up.

Meanwhile our state Democrats are showing the world how to stand for and with the people.

[PeaceNikki]

5. Oh please.

It won't ever be a clean-sweep because this is the most polarized place in the nation. Walker's approval is EIGHTY-SEVEN PERCENT with Republicans and only 8% with Democrats. And the GOP gets to the polls. Consistently. Even in mid-terms and special elections. We as Democrats tend to not and/or think we're making some huge moral bullshit referendum to DC if we stay home. We did that last fall and MANY of us won't do that again.

[indurancevile]

7. still that high with republicans? why? surely some of them have public sector jobs

or family who does.

[PeaceNikki]

8. Yes, still.

The political climate here is fierce.

[Flubadubya]

9. If Walker were trying to drown a Repub voter in a bathtub...

the guy would think Walker was just trying to teach him to swim and would feel "blessed" to be getting attention from the great man. :crazy:

[RandySF]

10. My gut feeling.

I think odds are 70% that we flip one seat, 55% of flipping two and either 49 or 50% that we flip three.