I don't expect people to agree w/ this but I think Obama will hold firm on the Bush taxcuts in 2012

[bluestateguy]

Why? Well, it's a cynical reason. The Bush taxcuts expire on December 31, 2012. Once again, you will see Democrats in the Congress wanting to de-couple the taxcuts (as they failed to do in 2010) by letting everyone under $250,000 keep their taxcuts, while the affluent would see their taxes go back to Clinton era rates.

We can expect all Republicans, teabagger or not, to oppose this and to do their hostage taking ritual again: insisting that either the rich get to keep their taxcuts, or nobody does, and all taxes would then go up on January 1. Just as in 2010, we can also expect to see some Vichy Blue Dog Democrats take this stand too. Interestingly, in 2010, many Democrats in Congress who took this position lost anyway.

The Republican House will try to provoke the issue before the election, by passing a bill to extend all taxcuts. At that point, I expect the matter will be deliberately bottled up in the Senate until after the election, even though many Senators will take a public position either way. There will be at least 41 Democrats in the Senate who will block cloture, tying up the issue until the lame duck session.

Obama, who is in the doghouse with progressives, will continue to re-iterate his opposition to extending taxcuts for the rich. Indeed, this is a position that has been consistently favored by most Americans, and even a good chuck of Republican voters. As a campaign issue, it is a winner for him. Meanwhile, Harry Reid will keep the matter bottled up in the Senate, sparing Obama from having to issue a veto during the campaign.

Win or lose Obama will be free to act and do what he knows is the right thing. If he loses, he can veto a lame duck passed bill to extend all taxcuts, and while everybody's taxes will indeed go up on January 1, he will have ultimately kept a campaign promise to end the Bush taxcuts for the wealthy. If the next Congress somehow overrode him before leaving office on January 20 (the new Congress is sworn in January 3), then the political responsibility for the policy no longer belongs to him.

If he wins, he has tenure. He no longer has to worry about being fired by the voters or popularity polls. I believe at that point he would stand firm and veto any bill that does not restore Clinton era tax rates for the wealthy. Like any president, he will be thinking about his legacy. And he will find that progressives in Congress and in the country will back him up.

BTW, I say that as someone who is leaning AGAINST today's debt ceiling deal.

[LonePirate]

1. Good luck with that. The Rs have proven that extorting Obama works for them so they will do it again

I do not see any way possible that these tax cuts will not be extended by Obama or his Republican successor by the end of January 2013.

[yourout]

2. It would certainly be a first.

[Recursion]

3. There's no leverage against him on Dec 2012

There's no unemployment extension, START, or DADT. There's no debt ceiling. Hell, even the election will have already happened.

That said, if the commission has come up with revenue reforms that pass both chambers he would probably sign them.

[yourout]

4. There will be......I would bet 20 bucks on it.

[dflprincess]

10. Don't you think they'll become an issue before the election?

Sure they will and Obama will cave again.

[Paulie]

11. The dept ceiling will be back in Jan 2013

So yes the bush tax cuts will be negotiated permanently with the new debt ceiling bill.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Dec 2010 defined the present and future.

[TheDebbieDee]

5. There's almost no reason to believe that he will hold firm about

anything.......

I have liked his two nominees for the Supreme Court, though. And the likelihood of more Justices retiring within the next 5 or 6 years is the major reason why I will be voting for Pres. O again.

[LetTimmySmoke]

6. He'll trade an extension away for some minor thing he think will help him in the 2012 elections.

Then lose the election as a result....

[onehandle]

7. If he loses, we will likely lose the Senate as well.

And if the teabaggers take over, nothing Obama does will matter. We might as well hand the keys over the Chinese and walk away.

[kelly1mm]

18. There is a pretty good chance we lose the Senate even if Obama wins. nt

[OHdem10]

8. Just like he stood firm on GItmo, and about 10 other things.

[Skittles]

9. LOLOLOL

if he does, it will be a first

[Maru Kitteh]

12. I believe you are right about the tax cuts.

I don't really care about the reasons. I do believe he will see the Bush tax cuts end.

[hay rick]

13. Keeping taxes low for the rich...

is the single thing that the Republican Party stands for. All the rest is smoke and mirrors.

Obama will cave on that issue every time.

[Ozymanithrax]

14. I will believe it, when it is done...

The President deserves no more benefit of the doubt.

[mitchtv]

16. just another politician

you are correct with that judgement

[udbcrzy2]

15. I won't hold my breath - Obama fooled us all n/t

[loyalsister]

17. I think that's a real possibility

I also think that if we do the work we need to do locally to get congressional Democrats elected, we might see more changes in our direction.

[_ed_]

19. This post sounds like

"he only hits me because he loves me."