Cameron to Resign?

[Ruby the Liberal]

So - how bad is the heat on his admin right now with all of the arrests and resignations while he has been out of the country?

That whole 'Murdoch entering No 10 from the back door EVERY TIME while heads of state enter through the front' was rather damning, imo.

What is your best guess?

.

[aquart]

1. Oh, this isn't nearly bad enough.

[Pab Sungenis]

2. I voted no

but it looks like conventional wisdom is running against me. Google Auto-Complete puts "David Cameron Resigns" as the second choice when you start typing his name.

[Ruby the Liberal]

4. Wow - really?

I heard tonight that he gets home tonight and will make an announcement tomorrow. No idea what time or if it will be verbal or a 'statement' via spokesman though.

Admittedly, I know very little about the UK political scene. Last guy quit over the economy (IIRC), so who knows.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. While I said yes, it looks bad enough,

tomorrow will be a critical day... depends how feisty the House becomes.

If the government falls, it will be by the end of the summer though. not before.

[Ruby the Liberal]

5. Do they have 'no confidence' votes in the UK?

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Yep, but we are not at that stage yet

I doubt Labor can get enough in the Liberal Party to peel off YET.

Also they go on vacation on Friday and the European economy might implode, so that might save his skin.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot of the mood in Parliament.

[Ruby the Liberal]

11. Sometimes I wish we did.

[RandySF]

9. It takes less than that

Cameron's cabinet could theoretically walk in one day and tell him it's time to step aside.

[Ruby the Liberal]

12. Really? Yikes! I was just reading today that he is in a coalition govt with Clegg (LibDem)

I guess I need to go see what Mr Clegg has to say about this all.

[RandySF]

13. I don't know what Clegg is thinking now

But much of the rioting we saw a few months ago in London were students who felt betrayed because they voted for the Lib Dems. This might give them the excuse to walk away.

[LeftishBrit]

20. Yes. But I don't think it will happen immediately

It would need a concerted effort by Labour, and would need to be joined by most of the LibDems.

The LibDems are unlikely to want to force an election right now, as polls suggest they'd be virtually obliterated. And I get the impression that Labour think that they'd do better if we had an election in a year or so than right now, and are therefore not pushing vigorously for one.

[Ruby the Liberal]

22. Thanks for the insight!

Fascinating system you all have over there. I have enjoyed watching the proceedings this week.

[malaise]

6. The big test series against India begins on Thiursday

We'll have to wait - cricket comes first. :evilgrin:

[HipChick]

18. Thanks for the reminder

[RandySF]

7. Seems like it took less to bring down Thatcher.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. What brought Thatcher down was her flat amount (not flat rate) poll tax

She reformed local government finance so that, rather than being a local tax based on the rentable value of your house, it was the same amount for every adult in the area. The absolute poorest got some help paying it, but even they had to pay at least 20% (only people who had taken a religious vow of poverty were let off, I think. I can't remember about prisoners). This was, it was agreed, bound to lose them the next election, so the Tory party ditched her, and the policy, and her successor John Major squeaked back into power in 1992.

Some say it was also infighting among the Tories about the European Union, but I think that just produced some factions in the party. It didn't produce riots on the street, for instance. She brought herself down by screwing the average person to favour to rich.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

10. I think Murdoch did favors for Cameron, and he was paying back favors. nt

[Ichingcarpenter]

15. Its 2/1 that he will by English and Vegas bookies

by the end of the summer.... I voted that too

[KeepItReal]

16. He is addressing Parliament right now and is not suggesting resignation

He sounds pretty defiant.

[deacon]

17. Given yesterdays farce, I don't see him going anywhere.The government seems thoroughly corrupt. n/t

[HipChick]

19. Gov, Met Police and Scotland yard..all corrupt...but I like seeing Dodgy Dave squirm

[LeftishBrit]

21. I voted 'Pie'. But what I think is that he will not resign in the imminent future but that the

scandal and its fallout may mean that the coalition and government will not last for the full term till 2015 - which had been the plan.

[Ruby the Liberal]

23. What happens if LibDem pulls out of the coalition?

(With or without a no confidence vote)

[LeftishBrit]

24. Three possibilities

(1) Labour and LibDems form a coalition. Unlikely as long as Clegg is leader, but if there's a big LD leadership shakeup it *just* might happen.

(2) Tories call an election

(3) Tories attempt to continue as a minority government. May carry on for a while (especially as the LibDem right may continue to support them informally); but would probably lead to an election being called rather earlier than 2015. Also there would be limits to what they could do.

(3) would probably be the most likely possibility; but it depends on the exact circumstances.

[Ruby the Liberal]

25. Ok then. Good to know!