How the GOP Can Take Anthony Weiner's Seat

[brooklynite]

from the http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-06-07/anthony-weiner-the-scandals-congressional-consequences/">Daily Beast

Just as conventional wisdom was starting to conclude that the Democrats might have a serious chance of winning back the House in 2012, Nancy Pelosi gets hit with the Anthony Weiner revelations. She immediately called for an ethics investigation because she had to—she was staring at days of stories in which she’d be asked why she hadn’t made such a demand (an experience she lived through with regard to Charlie Rangel). But Pelosi has another potential problem that no one has yet focused on: holding on to Weiner’s district.

...snip...

Welcome to the difference between Manhattan and the outer boroughs. In 2010, Weiner beat a relative unknown named Bob Turner, a retired television executive who raised a lot of money (more than $300,000) for a challenger to an established incumbent, by 60 percent to 40 percent. That’s a blowout by normal standards, but by the standards of congressional districts that are carved to protect incumbents, it’s a pretty close shave. To be sure, 2010 was an unusual year: GOP turnout was goosed in Weiner’s district just as it was across the country. In other years, Weiner has waltzed to reelection, not even drawing a Republican opponent in 2006 and 2008. But when a multi-term congressional incumbent has an opponent who hits 40 percent, insiders notice.

It’s just not that heavily Democratic a district in voting terms. Its Cook partisan voting index is just D+5. By comparison, Rangel’s Harlem district is D+41, and Carolyn Maloney’s East Side/Queens district D+26. So D+5 is not such a heavy advantage at all—provided there’s a credible Republican around. Well?

There’s Turner, who could make another run. And there’s Eric Ulrich, a Republican member of the New York City Council whose district overlaps in considerable measure with the Queens portions of Weiner’s. At 26, Ulrich is just barely constitutionally old enough to be in the House (you have to be 25). He does already have a proven ability to get Democratic votes. His council district is three-to-one Democratic, and he won it in November 2009 over the Democratic nominee by 20 points.

Perhaps why Allyson Schwartz is suggesting he leave?