About the "No President since FDR has won re-election with UE above 7.2%" meme....

[scheming daemons]

No President since FDR, until Obama, had inherited an economy in freefall due to failed Republican deregulation policies either.


Yes... Unemployment will likely be over 7.2% when voters go to the polls next year.


But just like FDR, Obama will win re-election easily.


The American people were here in 2008... they saw what happened.... they saw the American economy collapse before their eyes. Just like in 1929.


They know who was in charge when it happened. They know who is responsible for it happening.


Just as in 1936.... they will vote to keep the Democratic President in office for four more years.


Today's Gallup tracking: Approve 53%, Disapprove 39%. The widest margin for Obama since the early months of his presidency.

The public gets it.

[Dawson Leery]

1. Truman won his turn outright even though the economy was

not in good shape. Unemployment was relatively high due to the economy transitioning from a war-time to peace-time economy.

The do-nothing Republican Congress was thrown out as their deserved.

[sendero]

2. I wouldn't be so cocky..

.... they also know who hasn't done JACK SHIT for main street.

While I agree that the Repugs would do no better, the voting public has a history of punishing the president/party in power during hard times.

[scheming daemons]

4. In every area, things are better today than they were on January 20, 2009

Are they good enough? Not by a long shot.


But we were losing 700,000 jobs a month when Obama took office... and we're gaining 200,000 jobs a month now.


The direction of things matters.


In every measurable way, things are better than they were..... not good enough, but better than they were.

[tblue37]

5. IF the people get to hear about it, but of course the M$M will keep reminding them

of how bad it is "under Obama," without reminding them that it was worse under Bush, and that it takes a while to turn a disaster like that around.

Don't forget, most Americans are not even aware that they have been getting a tax cut under Obama. They think he has repeatedly raised taxes on the middle class, because that is what they keep hearing from the propaganda-masters!

[former9thward]

9. Unemployment is up.

Unemployment was 7.6% in Jan. 2009. It is 9% now. Yes, it is the direction of things that matter.

[AndyTiedye]

10. Only 40,000 Jobs Last Month. Double Dip?

[sendero]

12. You.

..... are dreaming, truly, turn off the MSM and do some research. Things are NOT better.

[Motown_Johnny]

14. can you please back that statement up, it sounds like you are the one with the MSM meme

From what I can see every measurable indicator has improved, if only slightly.

If you look at the auto industry specifically, and it's implications for this country, then things are dramatically better.

The same can be said for the stock market.



Things like housing have not improved much but it took a decade or more of irresponsible behavior to create that bubble, expecting it to be solved in a couple of years isn't reasonable.

[n2doc]

13. Err...housing prices? Forclosures, # underwater mortgages...

Deficit? #wars we are in?
Keep your rose colored glasses on. Must be nice to have a secure job, paid off house and full medical insurance.

[Jackpine Radical]

3. No President since FDR was left a depression by his predecessor.

I think that might make a little difference. That, and a few things like the refusal of Republicans to consider any candidates without either character disorders or prominent delusional systems.

[Gman]

6. For that matter since 1776

no president had been Black until 2008.

[rpannier]

7. Rec

But I'd caveat it

A poor republikan field helps

But, most of those jobs being filled are being filled by people in the under 34 age range and older than 55. link:
http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/flowchart/2011/04/01/why-the-middle-aged-are-missing-out-on-new-jobs

Those in their late 30's-early 50's are still finding it difficult to find work and many have given up at this point. If they vote, they may decide they want something else - especially if they lost their job between late 2009 and now.

Many businesses now won't hire people who are unemplyed.

The unemployment numbers are always a double edged sword. It's great when you see the numbers fall but the question is always why. If they are falling because these people are all being hired 'great'
If it's because people are over the 99-weeks, not-so-much.

In the end, Obama should win. But at the same point Carter should have won, Bush I should have won.
We'll see whether the republicans find the not-crazy to run. At this point that position seems to only be filled by former Utah Gov and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman.
His problems: 1. He's Mormon (fundies don't like them) 2. He's not an arch-conservative 3. He took the position in China under Obama.

[unblock]

8. yeah, and not one democrat has won re-election in the 21st century.

for a more complete list of relevant factors, check out lichtman's 13 keys.

http://www.gazette.net/stories/05272011/policol193154_32542.php

obama's got, oh, about 10 of them, making him practically a shoe-in.

NOTE that lichtman's 13 keys theory is historically tested and has held up since first formulated.

NOTE also that unemployment per se is NOT even a single one of the factors. unemployment may lead to other relevant factors (significant social unrest, a serious nomination challenge, a serious third party candidate) or be the result of other relevant factors (poor short-term or long-term economy) but unemployment by itself, in isolation, is not relevant.

[Distant Observer]

11. Republican are betting everything on that -- their goal is to keep job-growth down till election

May well send economy in long-term stagnation.

[Nye Bevan]

15. We can't take anything for granted.

True, Obama inherited a mess from Bush, but 4 years is a long time to turn things around.

I remember when George HW Bush had huge approval ratings in 1991 after Desert Storm. And the Democratic field was fairly unimpressive. The small-state southern Governor with a reputation for philandering was not seen as a terribly strong candidate. But his people came up with the phrase "it's the economy, stupid" and we know how the story ended.

It *is* the economy, stupid.

[madokie]

16. I like being represented by a President who has Class

as well as many other things I like about President O. Its how we're perceived by the rest of the world that is important too.

[MaeScott]

17. Push back on this every time you see/hear this meme. nt

[tekisui]

18. You vastly over estimate the American public's ability to pay attention

for extended periods of time. They were there in 2008, but it doesn't matter who caused it. The only thing that matters is that Obama hasn't fixed it. When it comes to unemployment and the economy, the American public doesn't take the long view. For better or worse, they will inevitably blame the person in charge for the current situation.

I'm not saying Obama won't win, but he has a helluva tough sell to make on the economy. That is what the repukes will latch onto and will be what the election is about.