TPM's Josh Marshall: Mitt’s Darkening Horizon

[Pirate Smile]

Mitt’s Darkening Horizon



We’ve frequently noted the boom-and-bust cycle of would-be Romney slayers in the GOP primary race. And Newt is currently in his ‘Angry-Birds-like’ arc across the polling chart. But like some others, I now have my doubts whether Newt’s really going to tank like the others. Look at the data from the various primary states in this article.
Gingrich is now significantly ahead of Romney in Iowa and South Carolina. And even in New Hampshire, which has always been the lynchpin and backstop of Romney’s primary strategy, Romney appears to be moving into a genuine race with Newt.

The current TPM Poll Average of New Hampshire has Mitt almost 18 points ahead of Newt (36.5% to 18.8%). But the latest poll from Rasmussen released yesterday has it at a 10 point margin (compared to a 24 point margin the last time Rasmussen polled the race a month ago). Again, Mitt’s still got a big lead. But it’s New Hampshire where he’s supposed to have no competition at all.

Then there’s Florida. The TPM Poll Average still has Cain slightly ahead of Romney. But until yesterday there hadn’t been a poll there since early November. In the latest poll Newt has a huge 24 point lead over Mitt.
We probably need to wait until mid-December to know whether Newt’s surge is real or just another boom and bust. But it seems different; it feels different. That’s not much to go on. But we do have some evidence that it is different.

-snip-
But so far, Newt just seems more durable than the others. And suddenly Mitt looks a lot less inevitable. That in turn has its own effects. As the dominant frontrunner or 2nd place behind the clown of the week, Romney had the luxury of largely avoiding any critical interviews. Now that’s not so easy. He sat down yesterday for an interview with Bret Baier on Fox. And it didn’t go well. Mitt got testy and didn’t react well to a serious questioning on his many changing positions.
Frankly I cannot comprehend the GOP being as foolish as they’d need to be to make Newt their nominee. But Mitt looks a lot less like a sure thing. Expect electability to start becoming a very, very big issue.


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/11/mitts_darkening_horizon.php?ref=fpblg

[Liberal_in_LA]

1. lol - the article mentions 'angry birds'. that game is everywhere

[Cognitive_Resonance]

2. If Romney fails to achieve a decisive win in New Hampshire he's done. nt

[karynnj]

3. Interesting article

The points at the end bear considering. Romney has been able to play the inevitable, sane, above the anger frontrunner for the last year. But, look at when he was ever questioned in the debates - his attack on Huntsman (over Afghanistan) and his attack on Newt (over immigration) and the earlier attack on Perry ( over illegal immigrants) all show someone who really does not not handle attacks well - no matter what side he is on, he is humorless.

In a Newt/Romney war, it is likely both could emerge pretty scarred.

[Pirate Smile]

4. Romney is extremely thin-skinned. Does he really believe and expect everyone else to believe that he

only flipped on abortion? That is delusional but that's what he said in the Fox interview.

If Newt goes after him during a debate, I can see him completely flip out. It would be great. :)

[Tesha]

6. Let's hope they both get MAD, as in "Mutually-Assured Destruction". (NT)

[karynnj]

7. That would be interesting

The result would seem a seriously wounded candidate or someone else rising from the limited pool they have.

[leftynyc]

9. He even had trouble

in a one-on-one interview with a faux news guy (Baier?). Complained that he felt the questions were unfair. The man can't take criticism and I expect he'll blow before too long. If he can't handle faux, he's toast.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

5. To bad they can't run Ebeneezer Scrooge

but Newton comes the closest to the model.

[demgrrrll]

8. Looks like there may be quite a few Republican 3rd party

candidates. Huntsman has not ruled out a third party run and then there is Buddy from Louisiana and someone else in the Justice party? Interesting.

[WI_DEM]

10. Huntsman would hurt Obama more, I think.