Let's hope this is true: Gallup: "U.S. Unemployment Down Sharply in Early October"

[Pirate Smile]

U.S. Unemployment Down Sharply in Early October
Not seasonally adjusted, unemployment falls from 8.7% at the end of Sept. to 8.3% in mid-Oct.

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist


PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.3% in mid-October -- down sharply from 8.7% at the end of September and 9.2% at the end of August. A year ago, Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate stood at 10.0%. While seasonal hiring patterns may explain some of this improvement, the drop suggests the government could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.



In addition to the drop in unemployment, Gallup also found a decline in the percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work, to 9.2% in mid-October from 9.6% at the end of September.



Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is thus at 17.5% in mid-October, down sharply from 18.3% at the end of September -- and its lowest measurement of the year.



Looking Ahead to the Government's Next Unemployment Report

Gallup's mid-month U.S. unemployment report covers the same period the government uses to collect data for its October unemployment report, which will be released on the first Friday in November. As a result, Gallup's data lead the government's report by several weeks. Modeling based on statistical comparisons of Gallup's unemployment and job creation data to the government's seasonally adjusted data over time suggests that the Bureau of Labor Statistics could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150137/Unemployment-Down-Sharply-Early-October.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=Economy

[LonePirate]

1. I wonder if we have droves of people leaving the workforce. That seems the most likely explanation.

[Pirate Smile]

2. I don't know. I know that didn't happen in the last jobs report. The labor pool expanded during

September.

[bluestateguy]

7. Many people are retiring or just giving up

Some of it is just an aging workforce and has nothing to do with the economy.

On the other hand you have other people that just give up, or if they are say 62 after getting laid off they just take SS early, or if they are 60 and get laid off, they cash in their IRA to hold them over until they turn 62.

[ClarkUSA]

12. I doubt enough folks retired or gave up in early October to result in this steep drop.

[Cali_Democrat]

11. We'll know when the next BLS report comes out on Nov 4th. n/t

[secondwind]

13. Baby boomers retiring??!!!

[mikekohr]

3. This slow decline follows the historical example of FDR's victory over Hoover's Great Depression

It took our greatest president over 7 years to reduce unemployment to below pre-depression levels. Economic recession/depressions that have structural componants driving the slowdown like Hoover's Great Depression or Bush's Great Recession take time to reverse completely.

If we want to avoid the pain and suffering that comes from recession/depression we MUST STOP electing the jackasses whose economic policies cause them. I'm talking about Republicans.

see: http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/history-of-recessions.html
A HISTORY OF RECESSION IN THE UNITED STATES 1950 TO 2008
Written by: mike kohr 2/12/2008
-clip-
Criminologists look for patterns to solve and prevent crimes. And in the comparison of the economic records of Democrat and Republican administrations there is a glaring pattern all but ignored by the corporate media. Nine of the last ten recessions have occurred under the direction of Republican economic policy. And proving that history does repeat itself, examine the three greatest slowdowns in US economic history, 1929*, 1982, 2007, all three were attributed to poor economic and tight credit policy, all three featured deregulation and lack of oversight of the financial markets, and all three were presided over by a Republican President. -end of clip-


and if you want a job, elect a Democrat to the White House and Congress:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mHSyEv8vBt4/S6Zvl-nui8I/AAAAAAAAACQ/3j0wUSj78mk/s640/Job+growth+graph.jpg?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mHSyEv8vBt4/S6Z6xo0qSnI/AAAAAAAAACY/p8SkoEnN5dw/s640/job+creation+by+president.jpg?

[bluestateguy]

4. I guess when people die, retire or give up they are no longer considered unemployed

We'll see when the new numbers come out.

[frazzled]

10. Um, yeah, deceased people shouldn't be counted as unemployed

Was that a joke? Or were you assuming an inordinate amount of people died between August and October?

[bhikkhu]

5. Very good news, and a step in the right direction

I know you can look at it as discouraged workers giving up (which it doesn't seem to be in this case anyway), but one of the big problems for everyone is low wages, and those don't improve easily without a lower unemployment rate.

Historically, we actually have a large percentage of the population in the workforce now...one of the differences is that fewer jobs are such that a single wage-earner can support a family. Or in another way, wages are low, so everyone is a household is pressured to work to get by.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Lots of people I know getting full time work, lots of job ads in windows

The usual suspects will explain this away in their usual way, but these numbers reflect what I'm seeing on the ground here in Chicago.

All rosy and wonderful? No, surely not. All terror and misery? No, not that either. Slow progress - a miracle given the R's absolute refusal to do *anything* on the economy. I think if we see further massive drops we'll have to give additional credit to OWS. They're spooking the banks so badly that they're going to start opening up the coffers and lending for business development and innovation again.

[ClarkUSA]

8. Of course it's true. Don't buy into the Chicken Little propaganda that passes for MSM wisdom.

Meanwhile, President Obama's 24/7 critics are not happy. As I type, they are thinking up ridiculous ways to move this goalpost in their ongoing efforts to minimize his able stewardship of this 2.75 year old Out of BushCo economy during insanely partisan times.

[flamingdem]

9. rec for a good trend nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. K & R

[ClarkUSA]

15. Just imagine how those figures would look if Congress passed the American Jobs Act.