Talkingpointsmemo's Josh Marshall: Cain?

[flpoljunkie]

Cain?

Josh Marshall
September 24, 2011, 6:32PM


Hermain Cain At GOP Candidates Debate, June 13, 2011

So what's the upshot of what just happened here with Herman Cain's surprise victory? First, all the standard caveats: this was only upwards of 2,000 people. And you had to pay to vote. Still, Perry made a big push to win this. He didn't come close. And it comes days after what everyone now seems to agree was a trainwreck of a debate performance which has seriously rattled Republican activists in their estimation of Perry. There's some unconfirmed chatter about strategic voting pumping up Cain's numbers. And it's important to note that Romney did not officially even compete.

But there's potentially a bigger story. Conservative websites did a lot of pumping of Cain after his debate performance, pushing him as the winner. And some of these same sites had been pushing hard for Perry up until then. Then, as our Evan McMorris-Santoro first reported this after, Cain had his biggest 48 hours of fundraising to date in the two days since the debate. It's impossible to say whether that online momentum helped Cain this afternoon or whether the fundraising was a sign of what was coming.

The bigger lesson I draw from it is that the conservative/Tea Party wing of the party is seriously disillusioned with Perry. But rather than draw what from the outside might seem a logical inference -- that that means it's Romney -- they're seeking a safe harbor. A safe conservative harbor. And right now that's Cain. Until Perry gets his act together or someone else gets in or they just decide it's gotta be Romney and learn to live with it.

[lunatica]

1. I think the votes were rigged to get rid of Perry

And I think it's no coincidence that it happened in Florida. Jeb Bush has plenty of cronies there, and it also has the stench of Rovian tactics. They gave Cain the vote because they know he'll never come close to winning the nomination. And if he does gain any momentum they've already lined up the way to destroy him.

Although I've read Perry has some very big backing himself. There may be a war going on that we aren't seeing. Big backers on both sides maneuvering and manipulating behind the scenes forces for power. We'll read all about it in a decade or two. Maybe even in Rove's memoirs.

[flpoljunkie]

2. These GOP activists apparently loved Cain and felt insulted by Perry calling them 'heartless.'

Cain received seven standing ovations when he spoke to them just before they voted in the straw poll.

[lunatica]

3. It could be part of the rigged show

Have you forgotten how slick Rovian tactics are? How every audience was vetted carefully for Bush? They know how to get the audience they want.

Or do you believe that the teabaggers suddenly love a black man? I don't.

[Historic NY]

4. Its biblical "Cain kills Ricky" !!