Choosing a point of comparison

[ProSense]

Choosing a point of comparison

By Steve Benen

<...>

The problem, of course, is that the Great Recession isn’t just worse than all modern American downturns; it’s also a different kind of recession — this one, like the Great Depression, was the result of a financial industry collapse. With this in mind, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis this week posted a different item, showing job losses associated with financial crises around the world, and by this point of comparison, “the U.S. labor market has performed better than 4 of the previous Big 5 crises.” (via Ezra)



I realize, as a political matter, this kind of information is cold comfort. No one, least of all those struggling most, really wants to hear, “It could have been worse” or “Swift action prevented a more serious disaster.”

But for the sake of understanding and comparing, facts are facts. As brutal and devastating as the Great Recession has been, a combination of steps from policymakers, including the stimulus, the auto industry rescue, and even TARP — all steps the right finds offensive — stabilized an economy teetering on the brink of collapse. As the second chart helps show, we even started recovering faster than other countries facing similar circumstances.

Voters may not care, but it’s worth pointing out the truth from time to time anyway. As Bill Clinton explained on “Meet the Press” last weekend, “First of all, he became president just a few months after the financial crash. Now, keep in mind, even before the financial crash, in the eight years before the financial crash, we had almost no new jobs. Only 10% as many as we had when I was president. Real family income was lower than it was the day I left office. The economy was weak as could be. Then you had this financial crash. Historically these things take five years to get over…. The American people are not used to waiting five years for anything good to happen, but that’s what we’re facing. And if you want to speed it up, we got to do things in the government.”

[frazzled]

1. Yes, everyone should read and study this chart

And then try not to hyperbolize ourselves into panic and doomsday scenarios. Work needs to be done. Policies need to be implemented. But this is hardly Armageddon or the making of a "lost generation," as the flaming Huffington-Post-type headlines would like you to believe.

[ProSense]

4. Exactly! n/t

[Supersedeas]

5. is there a clear line between hardly and close enough?

is the Great Depression really a point of comparison/standard by which progress is to be measured.

It is okay you know to admit that things are pretty bad.

[ProSense]

6. For

"is there a clear line between hardly and close enough?"

...the sake of the of the RW argument and predictions of doom, there is a "clear line" between making thing worse and making things better.

[Supersedeas]

7. Yes, no doubt about it.

But, we also need to take stock in the fact that there are real people, and real suffering, underlying those numbers. Acknowledging the work that needs to be done and policies that need to be implemented is a good step forward.

[ProSense]

8. True

"But, we also need to take stock in the fact that there are real people, and real suffering, underlying those numbers. Acknowledging the work that needs to be done and policies that need to be implemented is a good step forward."

...but where in the OP does it imply that work doesn't need to be done? Yes, there are real people being affected in positive (it's helping) and negative (not fast enough) ways by the policies.

[Supersedeas]

9. both in positive and negative ways

Not in the original post some much, but following up on 'frazzled' comment, going Armegadon may be going too far with the description of the economic outlook, but there are positive political implications to acknowledging that the economy for many people is in a very precarious spot.

The positive implications are two fold:
1. an acknowledgement of the real pain felt by those who aren't in the investor class; and
2. a impetus for positive political pressure to do something now (that pressure can to a steam with the President's speech to the joint session of Congress)--that pressure needs to be maintained.

I agree that the overall economic numbers reveal that the Administration as adverted a disaster, but in order to maintain the pressure that something more needs to be done now, there ought to be effort by all of us to emphasize how difficult it is for some many--and thus, how out of touch the RW is (even if they secretly think that the economy is maintaining well-enough for their constituents in the investor class based on the numbers--thus they think that they can do nothing--but also emphasize to those suffering that nothing is being done).

Probably not the most coherent post, but I hope it makes some sense.

[ProSense]

11. Well

I agree that the overall economic numbers reveal that the Administration as adverted a disaster, but in order to maintain the pressure that something more needs to be done now, there ought to be effort by all of us to emphasize how difficult it is for some many--and thus, how out of touch the RW is (even if they secretly think that the economy is maintaining well-enough for their constituents in the investor class based on the numbers--thus they think that they can do nothing--but also emphasize to those suffering that nothing is being done).

Probably not the most coherent post, but I hope it makes some sense.

...what in this report do you think prevents anyone from engaging in that effort?

How would anyone know if anything positive was done if no one reported it?

If no one reported the positive, the facts, the RW would be given space, unchallenged, to push their claim that things have gotten worse.

[Supersedeas]

35. Yes, the RW may attempt to do that from time to time, and reports like this would be helpful

The narrow point that I am trying (inartfully) to make is that this report out not be used to slammed those who are emphasizing the pain of those who the RW will inevitably ignore.

[ProSense]

37. Well,

"The narrow point that I am trying (inartfully) to make is that this report out not be used to slammed those who are emphasizing the pain of those who the RW will inevitably ignore."

...I do understand the point. What I don't understand is using the plight of those suffering to dismiss the report as irrelevant. No one is using the report to slam anyone. People should be able to field questions related to their responses without miscontruing these queries as dismissive. That's the point of a discussion. There was nothing dismissive about the report, and it shouldn't even be implied that there was.

Steve Benen made the point in his piece and it's in the OP:

I realize, as a political matter, this kind of information is cold comfort. No one, least of all those struggling most, really wants to hear, “It could have been worse” or “Swift action prevented a more serious disaster.”

[Supersedeas]

39. and cold comfort is an important acknowledgement

both the comfort of it, and the cold of it as well.

[frazzled]

13. I understand what you are saying, but ...

there is a danger in overhyping. People can tune the issue out altogether if they sense it is exaggerated.

I think we do need to emphasize the point of those who are still suffering and the factors that are causing it, but at the same time we need to express confidence that previous and current policies are working, however slowly, to ameliorate the situation. Because negativity (especially doomsday scenarios) is the worst thing for the economy and those suffering people.

[Supersedeas]

36. yep, it is a delicate balance--which is exactly my point

a small narrow point, but one worth keeping in mind

[JayhawkSD]

2. "this one, like the Great Depression, was the result of a financial industry collapse."

That is a rather serious oversimplification. The financial system collapsed because it had to do so. It was based on and required constant growth which was sustained by ever increasing debt, and when the debt reached the point of unsustainability the whole house of cards came down. The problem was not the collapse of that economy, it was the sturcture of it to begin with.

It started a lot earlier than 2008, with the export of production from this nation. This created a nation in which consumption was the basis for our economy. An economy which consumes more than it produces can do that only by increasing its debt in some form, be that consumer debt, public debt, or trade deficit. We did all three.

The more that our economy became based on comsumption and increasing debt, the fewer jobs it produced, and thus begins a vicious spiral. Fewer jobs means more debt to sustain lifestyle. Fewer jobs in production means more workers in low paying jobs to sustain the so-called "service economy." My father used to say, "Hell, we can't all make a living selling each other hamburgers." We are now pretty much finding out he was right. We are losing fewer jobs in the collapse because we lost a lot more jobs before the collapse began.

[ProSense]

3. Wait

"That is a rather serious oversimplification."

How can "financial industry collapse" be an "oversimplification" when it is an exact description of what happened? A description isn't going to encompass details.

"The financial system collapsed because it had to do so... The problem was not the collapse of that economy, it was the sturcture of it to begin with."

Um, what?

Here's a good read: The Economic Consequences of Mr. Bush

[Cigar11]

10. No one ever talks about ...

the “spare no expense” cost of National Security in both the Home Land and two (2) Wars (off-da-Books), coupled with Job Losses directly as a result of 911; and let just pretend not to remember we also decreased income with not one (1) but two (2) Tax Break Programs. Where were all those Big-Government protesters when we were losing pallets of CASH in the Desert and Building Schools for Little Iraqi Girls?

Trust me, if a Democrat said anything like, “how are we going to pay for this”, you were called “Un-American” and a “Cut-N-Run Liberal”.

Now they want to be Fiscal Conservatives and Balance the Budgets, in less the three (3) years when it was “Spend-Baby-Spend” for eight (8) years.

Get Real.

[Enrique]

12. all those countries have much stronger safety nets than we do

it's not a good comparison. A percentage point drop in unemployment here is MUCH more devastating to human beings than a comparable drop in Norway for example.

Neither Benen nor Klein mention the safety net difference, and when inevitably Kevin Drum reposts this on his blog, I bet he won't either.

[ProSense]

14. What

"all those countries have much stronger safety nets than we do it's not a good comparison. A percentage point drop in unemployment here is MUCH more devastating to human beings than a comparable drop in Norway for example."

...does the pace of the recovery have to do with the safety net? Economic policy to avert disaster and set a country back on track is created specifically for that purpose, and the existing safety net kicks in to ease individual burden.

Are you implying that these countries didn't do all they can to speed their recovery because they have stronger safety nets?

Also, the fact that a "percentage point drop in unemployment here is MUCH more devastating to human beings" is all the more reason why it's important to note that pace of the recovery here has been faster than in those countries. That doesn't diminish the reality of people suffering.

Benen, from the OP:

I realize, as a political matter, this kind of information is cold comfort. No one, least of all those struggling most, really wants to hear, “It could have been worse” or “Swift action prevented a more serious disaster.”

[Enrique]

15. what does the pace of recovery have to do with the safety net?

this kind of cluelessness doesn't help Obama any.

Go ahead keep sugar coating our jobs EMERGENCY, see where that gets your guy.

[ProSense]

16. You

"what does the pace of recovery have to do with the safety net? this kind of cluelessness doesn't help Obama any. "

...didn't answer my question, and hurling an insult doesn't mean you have a clue.

What does the fact that a country has a better safety net have to do with measuring the pace of the recovery?

"Go ahead keep sugar coating our jobs EMERGENCY, see where that gets your guy."

Straw man, still not a response!

[Enrique]

17. I said in my original answer

I was talking about the HUMAN EFFECT. Did you see that part? The part about human beings that aren't Obama, in case non-Obama human beings are relevant to the conversation.

[ProSense]

18. Well

"I was talking about the HUMAN EFFECT. Did you see that part? The part about human beings that aren't Obama, in case non-Obama human beings are relevant to the conversation."

...the "HUMAN EFFECT" is real, but that still doesn't explain the other part of your comment. You said: "all those countries have much stronger safety nets than we do it's not a good comparison."

The OP isn't a comparison of safety nets, it compares the pace of the recoveries.

[woo me with science]

19. ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=2013907&mesg_id=2015481

[ProSense]

22. ...

...

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ProSense]

25. Well, woo me with science

People have also posted lots of evidence here that Americans are angry as hell, and that enthusiasm is dropping significantly among his supporters, across multiple subgroups. I know you have seen those indicators, too.

But what Enrique and I are trying to tell you is something very specific, and you should listen. Your entire messaging strategy alienates rather than building support. The presence of a messenger like yourself is supposed to build good will and a good feeling about the candidate...not a sense that stories about human beings will be met with derision or blow by.

You should tell your bosses that.

...your attitude and attempt to sound endearing isn't winning me over. I really don't care if my opinion "alienates" you.

[woo me with science]

27. Exactly my point.

When this blow by and dismissal of human beings is the quality of your engagements, repeatedly, you are not helping him in any way.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x783838#784037

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=780579&mesg_id=784418

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=1651666&mesg_id=1652952

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x780579#784474

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=2013907&mesg_id=2014029

[ProSense]

29. What

"When this is the quality of your engagements, repeatedly, you are not helping him in any way. "

...calling out bullshit offends you?

You think continually posting criticism of other posters, mocking them for being "Obama's vocal supporters," implying that they're "paid" or "work" for the administration (evidently, because you can't make a better argument), invoking phrases like "blue links" and "Teh List," are examples of "quality" engagements?

You're not a victim. People can support the President if they choose to. If you're going to go around mocking others, then deal with it when people call you on your bullshit.

[woo me with science]

30. And I rest my case. nt

[ProSense]

31. And

"And I rest my case."

...I'm laughing my ass off!

[Enrique]

32. nice collection

this is our contribution to the Obama campaign, a free focus group on how they come across. :thumbsup:

[ProSense]

33. Here's

"nice collection this is our contribution to the Obama campaign, a free focus group on how they come across. "

...part of my "collection."

[woo me with science]

34. Thanks.

It could be much, much longer with just a brief search, but this gives a flavor, huh?

And it's telling that I didn't even have to do a search. I knew where they were, because this is all just within the past day or two.

I hope someone in the administration is paying attention.

[woo me with science]

21. Excellent point,

and the minimizing response you got here is typical of the mouthpieces of this administration.

And it is a huge part of the reason that people are so angry.

[ProSense]

23. It's

"Excellent point, and the minimizing response you got here is typical of the mouthpieces of this administration.

And it is a huge part of the reason that people are so angry."

...not an excellent point. The OP has nothing to do with measuring safety nets.

For example, in good economic times in the U.S., the 1990s, those countries still had better safety nets.

In fact, the safety nets have been strengthened by this President's policies, including one million young people being able to remain on their parents' plan, Medicare and Medicaid.

Now let's say the pace of the recover was a lot faster, and the U.S. was on track to see the unemployment rate reduced to 7 percent at the end of 2012, would that change the nature of the safety net? The OP chart would show an even faster pace of recovery compared to other similar economic crises.

Also, do you see the irony of hurling insults while playing the victim and introducing straw men into a discussion?



edited to remove extra word.

[woo me with science]

26. "In fact, the safety nets have been strengthened during by this President's policies..."

And the sky is green, and the chocolate ration has been increased.

Thank you for illustrating so well the problem here.

[ProSense]

28. Thanks,

"In fact, the safety nets have been strengthened during by this President's policies..."

I edited the comment to remove the extra word.

[great white snark]

38. "do you see the irony of hurling insults while playing the victim"

Do you even have to ask LOL?

Better be nicer to people Pro, before the threats of packing up my vote and going home come.

[Pirate Smile]

20. kick