N.H. poll shocker: Perry falls, Romney surges as does Jon Huntsman

[stockholmer]

Source: Los Angeles Times

Well, here are a couple of -- no, make that several -- new wrinkles in the Republican presidential contest in New Hampshire:

With the next televised debate tonight in Florida on Fox News, a new poll of likely New Hampshire Republican voters shows Mitt Romney surging to a commanding 27-point lead over his closest GOP rival, who is not Rick Perry.

The Texas governor, whose mid-August entry saw him rush to the top of numerous national Republican polls, was pushed way down in the new Suffolk University Poll to fourth place deep into the single digits, barely ahead of the not-even-running Sarah Palin.

But here's a surprising, potentially significant development for the New Hampshire contest. Jon Huntsman, who's been swimming around the bottom of the field like a foraging flounder barely registering in most polls, has himself surged. He's moved all the way up to 10% and third place -- ahead of Perry.



Read more: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2011/09/new-hampshire-poll-romney-huntsman-ron-paul-rick-perry.html

[SpiralHawk]

1. NH - It's a Granite State of Mind

[CanonRay]

2. I wouldn't think that hick southern cowboy thing would play

very well in New Hampshire.

[Cosmocat]

16. NH is Romney's

that is not some new development.

SC is Perry's.

Iowa is the question out of the first four ...

[seaglass]

23. It's the religious thing that does not play in NH.

“One of the things about New Hampshire that’s different from the other early primary states is that New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country,” Smith said, “so candidates who invoke social conservative ideas and religion, in particular, typically don’t do that well here, so Perry’s openly advocating his religion probably isn’t a very good tactic in New Hampshire.”

http://www.wbur.org/2011/08/15/perry-nh

Bottom line NH Repub activists may be religious but the NH Repub voters are not.

[luckyleftyme2]

3. perry

simply another clone like cantor and mcconnell-the country needs to rid themselves from this type in its congress or whitehouse!

[Tesha]

4. What "shocker"? I've been telling you all along that Romney will win NH in a walk.

He was a popular Republican Governor of a neighboring
state; that gives him a sort of "native son" advantage.

He (despite the magic underwear) isn't crazy; most of the
Republican field is certifiable and NH really doesn't do "crazy".

He was a successful businessman (even if you don't like
what he did for business).

And, most importantly, he cam actually defeat Obama.

All signs point to NH annointing Romney.

Tesha

[stockholmer]

11. let's posit that Romney is the GOP nominee (it is way too early to do this, but let's say he is) who

do you see as his VP pick?

He will need a very conservative pick, to shore up the Tea Bagger vote.

My possibles include (in order my perceived chances)

1 Marco Rubio (can't be the VP in 2016 if Jeb Bush (they both are Floridians) is nominee due to a GOP loss in 2012)
2 Bob McDonnell- Virginia Governor
3 David Petraeus
4 Bobby Jindal
5 Mike Huckabee
6 Chris Christie
7 Jon Kyl
8 Mike Pence
9 Paul Ryan
10 Rob Portman
11 Michele Bachmann (scary thought)
12 Mitch Daniels
13 John Thune (probably not enough 'right-wing')
14 Tim Pawlenty
15 Jim DeMint (doubt he would run, as he is a true power in the Senate, and South Carolina will vote GOP anyway)
16 Sarah Palin (I doubt she will give up Fox News gold)
17 Rick Perry (if Romney does win nomination, Perry will probably too much 'damaged goods')
18 Susana Martinez- New Mexico Governor
19 Allen West (pure flyer)
-----------------------------------------------
20 Jeb Bush (the true wild card)

[VWolf]

5. No shocker - Perry's an idiot n/t

[Arugula Latte]

13. Yeah, but that's usually a giant "plus" for a Republican.

I mean, look how it worked for Dubya.

[Kber]

6. I think the "shocker' is Huntsman's improved performance, not Romney's

I think that a strong 2nd finish (which is as much as he could reasonable hope for) might bring in money from people who want a tea party alternative, but aren't sold on Romney.

In the general, I think Huntsman is actually the most dangerous candidate they've got.

[No Elephants]

7. Romney was Governor of NH's neighbor. If I recall correctly, he also owns a place in NH

and has spent time there.

As far as Huntsman, I've had my suspicions about his purpose in this race.

Makes it seem as though Mormons running for President is ho hum.

Or, maybe he is the American equivalent of "an heir and a spare."

Meaning if Romney doesn't make it because of Romneycare and Social Security, well, the Republican establishment and/or the Mormon Church still has Huntsman.

Of course, Huntsman has come out firmly in favor of science, which, in their eyes, maybe be as bad as coming out in favor of Obama's health plan.

IMO, everyone in the Republican field is so badly flawed that Obama can't lose.

I can't see Romney or Huntsman energizing the Republican base; and I can't see independents voting for Bachman or Perry.

If we lose this one, something is very wrong.

[sinkingfeeling]

8. Because there's intelligence in the NE?

[TheCowsCameHome]

9. Perry is a novelty.

He will crash and burn well before Nov. 2012

[Pab Sungenis]

10. As expected. And it will change three more times before the voting.

Remember that at this point in 2003, Howard Dean was the prohibitive favorite.

We have no idea who the nominee is going to be.

[stockholmer]

18. just out of curiosity, who would you say is one of the non-leaders in current polls who could win?

I still smell a Jeb Bush run, if the cards break the right way (maybe as Romney's VP). The only other 2 who could (IMHO) get in this late, and still win the GOP nomination are Sarah Palin and David Patraeus, and both of them are long-shots. Patraeus's stock would soar if there were massive (sui generis false-flags, IMHO) terror attacks on US soil.

here is my list of Romney's possible VP's:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=778786&mesg_id=778816

The worst case scenarios for Obama would be:

Romney/Marco Rubio
Romney/Jeb Bush
Patraeus/Jeb Bush
Patraeus/Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush/Bob McDonnell
Jeb Bush/Chris Christie
Jeb Bush/Bobby Jindal

Romney/Palin (he is the only front-runner would be open to picking her) would be almost impossible to pick, as she is so polarizing (Obama would crush her in a one on one) but Palin would certainly drive GOP turnout amongst the Tea Baggers who despise Romney

[monmouth]

12. Huntsman really needs to get noticed at tonight's debate. Say something

smart and as usual, sensible. He's the one that's not nutz...

[WI_DEM]

14. Huntsman has been putting all his eggs into NH, so it's progress but

in the end I still think it will be a Mitt vs. Good Hair race.

[Life Long Dem]

15. Ron Paul is in 2nd place at 14%

Huntsman and Paul gained 6 percentage points since the last poll. Perry is at 4th with 8 percent. Sarah Palin has 6 percent ahead of Michele Bachmann at 5 percent. And Palin isn't even running - yet anyway.

I'd say Romney will win the nomination.

[YellowCosmicSun]

17. The GOP establishment is working overtime to knock Perry down.

They know he doesn't have a shot in hell if nominated.

[applegrove]

19. ****!

[totodeinhere]

20. I regard this as bad news. Perry would most likely be a weaker candidate than either Romney or

Huntsman. I'm especially wary of Huntsman. If he gets any traction watch out. He is trying to come off as more moderate but it's just a campaign tactic. When it gets right down to it his stance on most issues differs little from the rest of them. Yet if he can convince general election voters that he is more moderate he could give Obama a strong run for his money.

[DCBob]

21. Huntsman "surging" to 10% is not surging.

its basically Romney and then everyone else.

[opihimoimoi]

22. Perry is toxic....stupid too...