Obama begins with a base of 15 states and DC for 196 EV--how to reach 270

[WI_DEM]

As of today I would guess that President Obama has a base of 15 states which in all likelyhood will vote to for him with 196 electoral votes:

California 55
New York 29
Illinois 20
New Jersey 14
Washington State 12
Massachusetts 11
Maryland 10
Minnesota 10
Connecticut 7
Oregon 7
Hawaii 4
Rhode Island 4
Maine 4
Delaware 3
Vermont 3
DC 3

The President needs 74 electoral votes to clinch 270.

I see 12 states with 150 electoral votes as toss-ups.
Florida 29
Pennsylvania 20
Michigan 16
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
North Carolina 15
Wisconsin 10
Iowa 6
New Hapmpshire 4
New Mexico 5
Nevada 5
Colorado 9

Of these 12 states I think that Obama can lock up Michigan the quickest thanks to his saving the automobile industry. Add 16 electoral to the Obama/Biden ticket: 212 EV, Obama needs 58 more.

Of the three largest states left:
Ohio
Florida
Pennsylvania
I'm going on the assumption that PA will remain winner take all. Of those three states Obama needs to carry one out of the three--the best chance would be Pennsylvania imo. Give Obama 20 more electoral votes for a total of 232--Obama needs 38 more electoral votes.

Two Southern states: North Carolina and Virgina. Up to now Obama has been competitive in both of these states. He carried VA by a slightly larger margin than NC. He will need a huge African-American turn out again. Obama needs to carry at least one of these two states (I think he can win both) but for right now I'm going to give him Virginia for 13 electoral votes. Obama now has 246 electoral votes--he needs 24 more to win.

The two middle western states of Iowa and Wisconsin have 16 EV. WI is up in arms and will have a major Senate race. I think Obama can win both of these states but he will have to work for them. Obama is up to 262 electoral votes--he needs 8 more votes to be re-elected.

4 small states left: NH,NM,NV & CO. The President needs to win 2 of these four states to win and my feeling is that his best shots will be New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4) giving him 9 more electoral votes. However, if Perry is the nominee I think he can take all four of these state. I think Romney will be a more formidable candidate in the west in states with big Mormon populations like Nevada and even Colorado. Romney probably would be tougher to beat in New Hampshire as well.

So this is how Obama can win without carrying Florida or Ohio. Of course if he takes one of those two states he will be easily re-elected.

[scheming daemons]

1. Corbett and PA GOP is going to steal 10-12 of those

And don't be surprised if it happens in WI too.

[WI_DEM]

4. Not likely in WI because Gov Walker is on the defensive and

facing a recall election next year and isn't likely to do anything like that to fan the flames. Also, thanks to our recalling of two GOP Senators the WI State Senate is in GOP hands by only one vote with one GOP senator who voted against Walker on collective bargaining holding the balance. Also, other GOP senators will be worried to vote for such a plan because then the Dems would be competing to get out the Dem vote in their districts. So it will not happen in WI--PA maybe, but there are some GOP congressmen who are concerned there, too.

[Ishoutandscream2]

2. Florida, 29. Come on Perry and win the nomination

I don't think the elderly population there will be too thrilled about Goodhair's position on social security.

[BlueDemKev]

13. Florida will be back in the GOP Column in 2012.

Too many conservatives live there, plus the State Democratic Party in Florida is completely impotent. Even in 2008, which was a super year for Democrats nationally, Obama carried Florida by only 4,000 votes.

[Tesha]

3. Unless a miracle occurs, NH (4) will be voting for the Republican.

Obama is despised up here in the Granite State.

Tesha

[WI_DEM]

5. You may be right about NH. I say we really should hope the nominee is Perry

because he would be easier, I think, than Romney.

[Tesha]

15. Speaking in terms of NH, I absolutely agree Perry would be easier to beat than Romney. (NT)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

6. Few Democrats have won presidential elections in NH, right?

Obama is not an aberration.

[WI_DEM]

7. Wilson, FDR (twice), LBJ, Clinton (I think once), and Obama

so yeah it is the most conservative state in New England.

[bornskeptic]

10. Clinton won NH twice, Kerry also won NH, and Gore only needed

to pick up less than half of the Nader voters and he would have won there as well and been POTUS. Obama carried NH by almost 10%, and it's pretty tough to pick up that much ground on an incumbent President.

[Tesha]

16. Obama did, but he won't win NH again in 2012. (NH)

[COLGATE4]

8. Watch out for the silent campaign by PA's governor and Rethug

Assembly to apportion PA's electoral votes instead of 'winner take all'. As per Rachel last night, that would give Obama less votes than the Rethug, even if Obama wins PA's popular vote. A real Pandora's Box, and it's getting no press at all.

[GSLevel9]

9. Va won't go Dem again... Write it in stone.

[WI_DEM]

11. New Q poll out today shows a very tight race. Obama up by 2 over Perry

and Mitt up by 2 over Obama--so a dead heat. Too soon to w/o Virginia.

[GSLevel9]

12. I'm born and raised Virginian...

I couldn't believe it happened in '08 and don't think it will happen in '12. South of Alexandria the Commonwealth is SCARLET RED with the exception of a few urban CD's.

[BlueDemKev]

14. I'm afraid you're right

I had high hopes that Virginia was trending blue during the last decade with the elections of Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, and Barack Obama (president), but I think it may have been a temporary, "one-night stand" kind of thing.

[Tesha]

17. Obama was a "once in a lifetime" opportunity...

...or at least a once in three or four decades opportunity.
And together, Obama and the 2008-2010 Congress pissed
it all away.

Tesha

[BlueDemKev]

18. Obama's problem.....

...is that he was way too inexperienced when he became president. That is why I voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries. After Obama won the nomination, I supported him and hoped for the best. I feel Barack Obama means well, and he believed his offering of bipartisanship would resonate with the public and force some Republicans to join his efforts. Unfortunately, the Republicans immediately united in opposition and with the birth of the Tea Party movement, the party has moved further to the right than ever. Tackling health care reform was very brave, but also very costly....Obama spent all of his political capital on it and the one-year battle left him and the Democratic Party battered and bruised. Still, our own apathy is what cost us control of the House last year and we cannot let our disappointment in Obama's political skills cause us to make a horrible mistake. We cannot let the Tea Party take over next year (thru the Republican Party). It will spell the end of Social Security, Medicare, workers protections, sensible regulations, environmental protections, and everything we have worked so hard for over the past century. Even if you don't go out and knock on doors for Obama and the Democrats, please....at least VOTE.

[styersc]

19. Brother its bad luck to count your chips while your at the table.

Hell, we ain't dealt yet!!!!

[UrbScotty]

20. Feeling hopeful about Colorado - voted Dem for Governor and Senate in Republican year

[SadPanda]

21. I know this has been posted on DU a million times, but, you do NOT win without Ohio

Ohio.

Ohio.

Ohio.

[krawhitham]

22. With Kashit as Gov, Obama is a shoe in for Ohio