Howard Fineman predicting a one-page clean debt ceiling bill (Lawrence's show)

[polichick]

Did you see this discussion?

I so hope he's right about this - how perfect to end up right back at the beginning!

[flamingdem]

1. It would be a relief

but more so if they announced a job bill the next day.

[polichick]

3. Wish the prez had been talking about jobs this whole time but, yes, that would be great!

[JBoy]

2. Anything like that comes from the House though, will be short term

setting up another fight like this before the election. Things are fucked up.

[polichick]

4. Next time the prez should be very clear that anything other than a clean bill will be vetoed.

[gateley]

6. Yep, but if it's accurate that the results would be disastrous

for us and the world economy, we'd have to go with that. As the old Seahawks coach Chuck Knox used to say (every damn Sunday) "have to play the hand we're dealt".

Regardless of whether we agree or disagree of how this has been handled, if we come to the 11th hour and this is all we can do, we have do do it and deal with the consequences.

[flamingdem]

23. The US dollar might lose its exclusive reserve status if the govt. defaults... nt

[gateley]

25. That's one of the (many) things I just don't get - the value of

the dollar. I guess bottom line is if I can buy two Milky Ways today with $1, and it gets devalued, tomorrow I can only buy one? Something like that? And the "reserve" thing is way over my head. If you understand it, you probably shouldn't waste valuable time and energy explaining it to me, if you're so inclined, not sure it would penetrate my tiny brain.

[Cosmocat]

27. Honestly ...

The hard right half of the republican caucus is not going to sign off on whatever the senate comes up with.

If it is palatable for the house democrats, Boehner is going to have to find the 20 or so Rs who can get away with it to join with the Ds in getting the final deal done.

The party as a whole in the house could give a shiite about the country, but there are going to be enough who are not deranged lunatics who will do what needs to be done here.

[gateley]

5. That's all it's ever been, if I'm understanding it correctly. Lawrence

O'D actually wrote one once, and he presented it on his show -- did you see that?

I'm thinking if it gets down to the wire, that's all they will be able to do. Tempus fugit, and all.

[polichick]

12. I did see that - very interesting! Lawrence has some good insider stuff.

[Armstead]

7. Oh I hope he's right

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. Can Boehner pull together the votes for that?

The Tea Bagger objection is that raising the ceiling increases the debt, so they want offsets in the exact amount. If they don't go with that idea, they violate their pledge. Moreover, it's not clear that such a bill would prevent a credit downgrade, which would further increase the deficit.

I'm happy enough to see Obama have this argument again next summer, but I'm not sure a clean bill can pass the House. I'd have to think that Obama has made so much noise against a short-term bill that the GOPers would be able to consider it a victory, and maybe sell that to their lunatic constituents, but it would be a pretty clear stare-down by the Prez, seems to me. Maybe it is the only way both sides can declare victory at this point.

[polichick]

9. Maybe Obama is so against a short-term bill to give them a fake win.

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. That's what I was suggesting

He's given them a face-saving way to vote on a clean bill. of course, this very claim will produce such vociferous cries of 11-dimension chess that I hesitate to even make it.

[polichick]

11. Oh, I thought you meant they'd take it that way...

...rather than Obama is giving them that gift.

Good idea, if he is - and I agree about the chess.

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. It's just basic negotiation, really

The O Admin doesn't WANT to deal with this again before the election, so they draw the line on the short-term deal. But it's a soft line that can double as a face-saving gimme mfor the other party. I know people like to represent these fairly basic negotiation procedures that can be taught to any college sophomore as some mystical 11-dimension chess, but it's really just simple strategic negotiation: develop some conditions that you want, but are you're willing to give up if it provides advantage; provide face-saving devices for your interlocutor to walk away satisfied. It isn't chess. It's taught in every business program in the country.

[polichick]

14. Well, I hope it works - Teabaggers in the House are really just bullies imo.

[onenote]

15. If that happens it will be with the support of almost all Democrats and just enough repubs

The vast majority of repubs will vote against it (including Boehner).

My prediction.

[polichick]

16. Wonder what Boner's country club masters are telling him.

[bigwillq]

17. I hope so (nt)

[Rowdyboy]

18. Its too late for a clean bill...the markets have aleady made it clear that the Republicans

have gone too far. There will be a downgrade without serious spending cuts in any bill approved. The bastards politicized this and are probably going to win in the end. Its sickening.

[girl gone mad]

19. The downgrade is not important.

[totodeinhere]

20. Why do you say that? A downgrade translates into higher interest rates

and higher interest rates would put a drag on an already weak economy.

[girl gone mad]

21. The Fed has the ability to control interest rates.

We could see an increase in the long rate, but I don't believe it will be significant.

[totodeinhere]

22. The Fed can control some interest rates yes. But if a downgrade forces us to

pay more to finance our notes then IMO the Fed would have a hard time resisting that trend. But let's hope it never comes to that.

[flamingdem]

24. It may lead to the acceleration of the decline of the US Dollar, don't kid yourself nt

[Cosmocat]

26. No ...

the "markets" could care less about spending cuts in reality.

the "markets" DO care to not have this rehashed again in 9 months ...

What has been reported from HONEST sources is that a bill that makes this have to be redone again next year will more likely result in a downgrade.