"......The White House, in ......“The Truth on Health Care Reform and Taxes,” repeats a claim I’ve seen just about all defenders of the “They-Call-It-Cadillac-But-It’s-Really-A-Chevy Excise tax” make: that the tax will give workers a raise......
snip
HOWEVER, several studies suggest that employers will NOT pass health savings along to workers in the form of wages, but rather, keep this as extra profit.
AND, one criticized study suggested that by 2016, the "Cadillac Tax" ----supposedly only to be levied on the most generous employee-provided health plans----will be levied on MANY more health plans, including perhaps even the worst plans.
BUT, a Joint Committee on Taxation report suggests maybe wages would increase as employers "save" on health care costs:
Similarly, the JCT writes, “We expect that consumers will seek less costly policies that will reduce their exposure to the excise tax. Cost reductions could be achieved through several strategies, ranging from managed care plans and limited provider networks to more out-of-pocket cost sharing by consumers. When employers offer employees less costly plans, the employees will have less compensation in the form of non-taxable health care benefits and more in the form of cash compensation.”
JCT projects that only 20 percent of the revenues from the proposal in 2014 will come from the excise tax itself, with the remaining 80 percent coming from additional income and payroll taxes on the increased cash compensation that workers will receive. By 2019, fully 83 percent of the additional revenues will come from taxes on higher wages and salaries, not the excise tax.<11>
Based on the JCT figures, the excise tax will reduce spending on employer-sponsored insurance in 2019 by an estimated nearly $74 billion, or about 6 percent — an impressive amount that indicates the measure would be successful in helping to “bend the curve” — and lead to a commensurate increase of nearly $74 billion in wages and other fringe benefits.<12>
BUT, a survey study of employers suggests not:
•30% in the Towers-Perrin survey said if health reform increases employer costs, they would reduce employment
•86% in the Towers-Perrin survey said if health reform increases employee costs for health care, they would pass those costs on to employees
•9% in the Towers-Perrin survey and 16% in the Mercer survey say they would pass on any savings to employees in the form of wage increases
So employers are saying that the fundamental assumption that went into CBO’s and JCT’s calculations on the Cadillac tax are wrong. If the employers are right, it means that employees will get crappier health care–with more out of pocket expenses–but for the most part get no corresponding raise to help pay for those costs. Worse still, this means the revenue calculations will be wrong, because, while the government should be able to tax employers more (if the employers don’t find some other tax loophole), they won’t get any more taxes out of the workers
more at:
<
http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2009/12/17/the-cadillac-turned-chevy-salary-increase-myth/#comments>AND, at the same site, a Poll, of how people feel about the mandate:
"Poll: People Hate the Health Insurance Mandate
By: Jane Hamsher Friday December 18, 2009 9:38 am
New poll by Research 2000 for DFA and the PCCC shows that people hate the mandate:
Would you favor or oppose requiring all Americans to buy health insurance — the so-called mandate — even if they find insurance too expensive or do not want it?
FAVOR OPPOSE NOTSURE
38% 51% 11%
I’d also note that the wording of the question is the most charitable rendering the issue is ever likely to get.
When it appears in the ads of a Republican challenger who notes that the IRS will act as Aetna’s collection agency, I bet those numbers get dramatically worse."
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
