With the latest up to date forecast Obama could still win reelection even with a bad economy

[bigdarryl]

If you look at the Short Term economy key it is forecast in 2012 the economy won't be in recession but even if it is Obama STILL wins http://www.theattackdemocrat.com/2011/06/new-election-forecast-obama-wins-in.html

[MrTriumph]

1. Pure bunk.

Some of the assumptions are at best questionable, although Obama apologists will love it.

[bigdarryl]

2. The 13 key system has NEVER been wrong on the popular vote of the Presidential elections

even in 2000 Gore was predicted to win the popular vote which he did by 500,000 votes

[Vicar In A Tutu]

5. It works retrospectively, too, right back to 1860.

It's a very interesting formula; one built on very solid foundations in my opinion. It had Bush winning when Dukakis was destroying him in the polls, and I think it's much more compelling than many of the frivolous daily opinion polls, of which there exists a preposterous over-saturation.

[customerserviceguy]

3. Any forecasts or predictions made this far out

are severely questionable. For starters, we have zero certainty about who the Rethug nominee is going to be. That will affect the President's re-election chances more than just about anything. Also, we have no idea about the economy, if it looks like hiring is still as anemic as it was on Friday, there's no way that the President will not suffer for that.

Add to that the enthusiasm gap, and it's going to be an uphill climb for Barack Obama. Yes, he's done that kind of thing before, but his major asset during those times was that he was an unknown quantity. This is the first time in his life that he will have to run on a record.

[dtotire]

4. Questionalble forecast

55% of the popular vote would be a landslide. Can't see that happening, although I would like to see it.