A PPP poll and Economist Poll both show Obama beating Romney...

[Drunken Irishman]

The PPP poll has him winning 49-42, the Economist Poll shows him winning 45-42.

The latter was done on May 14-17, the former on May 23-25 - the same date as the ABC Poll.

If you want to add two more, there is the Suffolk University from May 10-17 that puts Obama up 46-43 and a Harris Poll conducted from May 9-16 that has Obama beating Romney 51-49.

Clearly Romney is the strongest Republican. Clearly the ABC Poll is an outlier.

It's ridiculous to take one poll and use it as proof something is happening - especially when it goes against every other national poll conducted around a similar time.

In 2008, IBD/TIPP released a poll in late October that had Obama leading McCain by only one point. A lot here at DU freaked because it 'proved' McCain was closing in on Obama.

Except no other poll showed the race that close.

In the end, the poll quickly was dismissed when other national polls showed Obama with a comfortable lead.

I'm not saying dismiss the ABC poll entirely, but don't use it as a definitive source until other polls align with it. Right now, ABC is the only poll out of nine from May that shows Romney beating Obama.

1 of 9. Think about that.

[JoePhilly]

1. Can't DU just flip out??????

That is soooo much more fun!

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. We need a "hair on fire" smiley IMHO

for "flip out" threads.

Until then, I guess this'll have to do:

:eyes:

[livetohike]

2. During the first GOP debate, watch for the others to tear Romney

apart. He won't win the GOP nomination, imo.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Also got to remember, Romney just recently announced...

His name has been in the news an awful lot because of that. Theoretically, you're going to get a bump from that if the media takes notice.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. Add to that the weak economic news from May

and this "perception" that Romney is *strong* on the economy (don't know where that comes from- even my Democratic father mentioned it once) and then "Weinergate" and you've got a particularly bad week for the Dems.
The *good* news (for us) is that House Republicans are now going to tackle Social Security privatization again, providing further evidence (as if any further is needed) that the Republicans in Congress have no plans other than to make things worse for more and more people and should NOT be entrusted with more power than they already have (and should have much less, actually).

[woolldog]

4. The ABC/Wash Poll was conducted June 2-5

While the polls you're citing were conducted almost 2 weeks earlier, before the rash of economic bad news we've been having.

You are mistaken, sir.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-loses-bin-laden-bounce-romney-on-the-move-among-gop-contenders/2011/06/06/AGT5wiKH_story_1.html

[Drunken Irishman]

6. My point is still very solid...

Until you provide another poll that shows Romney beating Obama consistently, why should I think 'the outlook is bleak' like you do? It's a simple question: Every poll conducted last month had Obama beating Romney. One poll has Romney beating Obama and we're automatically expected to believe the outlook is bleak?

Just admit you're an irrational poster sometimes. You latch on to every bit of bad news and run with it without any sense of what is actually happening.

Until I see a few other polls back up what the ABC poll shows, why should I believe they're correct?

[woolldog]

10. Just admit that you are lying in your OP

(or edit it) when you say all 3 polls were conducted "on the same date." They weren't.

The fact is that the poll I posted is the most recent poll. It was conducted June 2-5, where the others were conducted over 2 weeks prior.

Whether you choose to believe X poll is more accurate than Y or Z is entirely up to you. What I take issue with is you twisting the facts and misleading others. It is downright unethical.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. I never said all three were conducted on the same date...

I find it highly amusing you're claiming I'm the unethical one when I've not once seen you talk up a positive poll and never mentioned the polls I posted - released not even two weeks ago, that showed Obama winning.

Let me ask you a simple question: Did you, back at the end of May, feel the situation was 'bleak' for the Republicans? Or do you only do that to Obama when one poll shows him losing?

That might not be unethical on your part, but it definitely shows your agenda.

The situation is bleak - except when he was beating Romney not but two weeks ago.

:rofl:

[woolldog]

12. You said that the May 23-25 poll was conducted at the same time

as the ABC/WaPo poll.

That is false, as I've already shown.

To wit,

The PPP poll has him winning 49-42, the Economist Poll shows him winning 45-42.

The latter was done on May 14-17, the former on May 23-25 - the same date as the ABC Poll.

If you want to add two more, there is the Suffolk University from May 10-17 that puts Obama up 46-43 and a Harris Poll conducted from May 9-16 that has Obama beating Romney 51-49.

Clearly Romney is the strongest Republican. Clearly the ABC Poll is an outlier.

It's ridiculous to take one poll and use it as proof something is happening - especially when it goes against every other national poll conducted around a similar time.

In 2008, IBD/TIPP released a poll in late October that had Obama leading McCain by only one point. A lot here at DU freaked because it 'proved' McCain was closing in on Obama.

Except no other poll showed the race that close.

In the end, the poll quickly was dismissed when other national polls showed Obama with a comfortable lead.

I'm not saying dismiss the ABC poll entirely, but don't use it as a definitive source until other polls align with it. Right now, ABC is the only poll out of nine from May that shows Romney beating Obama.

1 of 9. Think about that

(emphasis added)

[Drunken Irishman]

13. And you claimed I said all three polls were...

So now who's being misleading?

Bottom line: Of all the polls released the last month, only one shows Obama losing to Romney (within the MOE). Never once did I see you post a thread discussing these positive polls or suggesting that the Republicans' outlook is bleak.

Yet the first, and only poll recently, that shows Obama losing by a small margin is evidence that the outlook is bleak for his reelection.

Don't you find that a bit, I don't know, interesting?

You're so quick to dismiss every other poll, a Gallup approval poll that puts his approval at 50% and yet, you latch on to this negative poll - one that hasn't been supported or backed up by any other - with such ease.

That's just very telling.

[woolldog]

14. Correct.

I misread your OP as saying that all 3 were taken on the same date, when, in fact, you only claimed 1 was taken on the same date as the ABC/WaPo poll. Still, even that claim of yours was WRONG.

And who says I've dismissed every poll? His approval rating is above 50% but that really doesn't matter, as he can have a rating > 50 and still lose head to head. There was a big shift last week in the economic data:( the $100 oil shock and Japan meltdown are just starting to hit the numbers ) and it's hurt Obama. Hopefully this will be a transitory rough spot for the economy.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Again, when have you ever posted 'looking bleak' for the Republicans after just one poll?

Stop with the bullshit. Just admit it, you're here to be a wet blanket. That was your role in 2008 and it'll be your role in 2012. One poll and automatically that means things are bleak. And you see no problem with that type of statement?

Frankly, I think you want Obama to lose. You wanted him to lose in 2008 and you want him to lose in 2012. It's projection. It's why you're often quick to post negative polls but aren't around at any point when a positive poll is released.

I'm guessing if NBC/CBS or another polling company releases a poll in the next weeks showing Obama beating Romney, you'll either become remarkably quiet or still stick with this ABC poll.

One poll showing Obama losing to Romney (who hasn't even won the nomination yet) within the MOE is bleak for him. Yet not once, at any point over the past month, did you ever claim it was bleak for Republicans when ALL their candidates trailed Obama in every single poll released in May.

You see, to those without an agenda, we don't take one poll and use it as evidence of this or that. We combine the polls, average it out and see what they say then.

You're putting an awful amount of weight into one poll, while ignoring other polls from May and the Gallup poll today that shows his approval at 50% - which you know means reelection, since no president has had 50% approval and lost an election.

So one poll is wrong. Maybe it is Gallup. But until I see evidence from other sources that Romney can consistently beat Obama, I'm not going to worry and I'm certainly not going to call his reelection 'bleak' like you were so quick to do (hope?) in your ABC poll post.

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. Let's be honest, Romney could definitely be a threat if he makes it through

the Teahadist primaries. Independents may sit up & take notice. There's been quite a bit of bad economic news lately, and that will show up in the polls. Let's not forget, the big dollars, that we'll never know where they came from, will be behind Romney. He'll be a force.

That being said, I'd love for Obama to get the opportunity to go head-to-head in a debate with Romney. If people buy his states' rights b.s., otherwise known as RomneyCare, he might make it through to the finish. He and Huntsman are the only two I really worry about.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. This poll is meaningless this far out

He hasn't even won the Republican nomination. I'm going to wait to set my hair on fire until he wins the GOP nomination and we get polls like this (or worse) closer to November 2012.

Chill out.

[A Simple Game]

15. Wow, who cares. The election is a year and a half away.

On edit: Let me know if a Liberal is running for President this time, then I will care.